Junior-Burn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.48K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

8.6%

Resolved

Trades

14,316

lifetime

Volume

$408.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 13:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Politics

59% 27% $-2,797

Other

40% 55% +$319

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 363 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	60	$18.4K	16,698	16,803	-105	open	—	02-03 19:30
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	14	$8.9K	4,494	4,657	-163	open	—	01-29 12:39
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	840	$8.2K	8,796	8,177	+619	open	—	04-02 20:46
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	57	$7.7K	6,007	5,072	+935	open	—	04-08 03:49
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	430	$7.1K	4,133	3,336	+798	Yes	$-20	04-28 07:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	52	$5.9K	7,859	7,045	+814	open	—	03-01 08:36
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	202	$5.9K	21,458	21,458	+0	open	—	04-21 16:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	196	$5.6K	6,311	6,802	-491	open	—	05-25 07:14
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	88	$5.1K	4,955	4,515	+440	open	—	04-21 17:41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	202	$4.9K	9,365	8,416	+949	Yes	$-706	05-08 18:35
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	85	$4.3K	5,340	4,592	+748	open	—	04-16 02:44
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	123	$4.2K	2,751	2,471	+279	open	—	04-24 00:43
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	55	$4.1K	8,987	8,987	+0	open	—	02-27 14:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	78	$4.1K	3,555	3,555	+0	open	—	04-29 05:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	124	$3.7K	3,818	3,817	+0	open	—	05-10 18:20
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	14	$3.5K	2,116	1,713	+404	open	—	01-30 17:12
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	154	$3.5K	6,579	6,579	+0	open	—	04-30 22:04
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	87	$3.4K	3,308	2,345	+962	open	—	04-26 13:50
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	25	$3.4K	2,733	2,733	+0	open	—	04-28 10:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	99	$3.4K	3,620	1,826	+1,794	Yes	$-523	05-08 19:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	133	$2.9K	4,956	4,956	+0	open	—	04-27 17:08
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	19	$2.9K	2,461	2,461	+0	open	—	02-09 16:32
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	54	$2.8K	1,457	1,469	-12	open	—	01-29 12:42
netanyahu out by march 31 854	14	$2.7K	1,412	1,412	+0	open	—	03-21 06:53
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	34	$2.7K	1,453	1,453	+0	open	—	03-09 07:26
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	30	$2.6K	2,187	2,181	+6	open	—	05-29 15:27
will annual inflation increase by 2pt1 in january 381	23	$2.6K	1,495	1,495	+0	open	—	01-23 15:07
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	67	$2.5K	1,381	1,301	+80	open	—	04-14 21:38
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	61	$2.5K	2,395	2,392	+3	open	—	04-14 05:33
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	140	$2.5K	1,258	1,258	+0	open	—	05-05 08:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 13:16:09	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0x934e7c…
06-08 01:46:10	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	29	0¢	$0	0x540012…
06-07 22:27:00	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0x745da0…
06-07 19:35:46	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0xc0cc3f…
05-29 15:27:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x4131da…
05-28 00:30:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	BUY	44	6¢	$3	0x88c36b…
05-28 00:30:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Yes	BUY	44	6¢	$3	0x0bb90c…
05-27 17:31:44	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	92¢	$27	0xa36bdd…
05-27 17:28:53	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	43	89¢	$38	0x77c88c…
05-27 17:28:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0x958989…
05-27 17:28:19	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	43	99¢	$43	0x259b3b…
05-27 17:28:07	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x1136fc…
05-27 17:27:25	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	56	94¢	$53	0x0dff71…
05-27 10:44:25	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	Yes	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0x83b511…
05-26 01:14:58	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	318	1¢	$4	0x458959…
05-25 23:10:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	No	SELL	13	90¢	$11	0xe3bd15…
05-25 22:58:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x8dcd5a…
05-25 22:57:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	No	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0x760a9c…
05-25 22:56:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	SELL	23	27¢	$6	0xd48d43…
05-25 20:35:11	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	116	2¢	$3	0x44e08c…
05-25 15:22:38	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xf245a6…
05-25 08:48:25	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	79	95¢	$75	0x7413bc…
05-25 08:47:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	Yes	SELL	360	46¢	$166	0x7020c9…
05-25 08:45:49	Will a hurricane form by May 31?	No	SELL	52	99¢	$52	0x4250aa…
05-25 07:18:03	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	190	44¢	$84	0x21bf23…
05-25 07:17:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	946	72¢	$680	0x789c42…
05-25 07:16:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	946	73¢	$691	0xa2320c…
05-25 07:16:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	Yes	BUY	56	50¢	$28	0x5b0c2b…
05-25 07:16:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	Yes	BUY	57	49¢	$28	0x95f6ce…
05-25 07:15:59	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by May 31?	No	SELL	68	97¢	$66	0xd1dee5…
05-25 07:14:44	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	125	97¢	$121	0x51da44…
05-25 07:14:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	207	75¢	$155	0x76cfe1…
05-25 07:14:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	Yes	BUY	247	49¢	$122	0x7d7673…
05-25 07:14:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	Yes	SELL	500	45¢	$226	0x126d6e…
05-24 22:44:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	Yes	BUY	296	54¢	$159	0xe1bf0a…
05-24 21:10:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	Yes	BUY	193	56¢	$108	0xd47668…
05-24 20:50:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x5ea744…
05-24 19:54:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	148	73¢	$108	0xe0660f…
05-24 18:34:54	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25?	No	SELL	57	98¢	$56	0x59e900…
05-24 18:17:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	154	74¢	$114	0x8e75de…
05-24 16:33:06	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	155	4¢	$6	0x71935c…
05-24 15:42:23	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	SELL	440	54¢	$236	0xb10569…
05-24 14:54:56	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25?	No	BUY	58	98¢	$57	0x371ef2…
05-24 14:16:19	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	440	46¢	$203	0xd678b3…
05-24 14:15:33	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	SELL	368	67¢	$247	0xcbd90c…
05-24 14:13:54	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0xd2c1db…
05-24 14:13:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	173	35¢	$61	0xc78b4e…
05-24 13:48:10	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	38	20¢	$8	0xf1a558…
05-24 13:33:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0xb86ac6…
05-24 13:10:36	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	19	28¢	$5	0x4156c5…
05-24 13:10:36	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	19	29¢	$5	0x40b199…
05-24 11:17:10	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x508ba5…
05-24 11:11:15	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	5	29¢	$2	0xf06ce7…
05-24 11:10:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	155	46¢	$71	0x95afe0…
05-24 11:03:52	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xa44b25…
05-24 08:10:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	906	85¢	$771	0x0f3c32…
05-24 08:09:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	SELL	1,174	79¢	$927	0x62eb76…
05-24 08:08:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	495	84¢	$417	0x90151b…
05-24 08:08:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	281	91¢	$255	0x824c02…
05-24 08:08:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	639	84¢	$537	0x372aac…
05-24 08:08:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	216	75¢	$161	0x5c1eac…
05-24 08:08:02	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	156	99¢	$154	0xc2311b…
05-24 08:07:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	1,220	10¢	$121	0xf88800…
05-24 08:07:23	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	213	90¢	$191	0x5a92cf…
05-24 08:07:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	218	90¢	$196	0x30ddec…
05-24 08:06:46	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	311	61¢	$191	0xa1794d…
05-24 08:05:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	704	29¢	$204	0x8d750b…
05-24 08:04:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	409	15¢	$61	0xefc1a4…
05-24 08:04:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	196	15¢	$29	0xadbe53…
05-24 08:03:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	179	89¢	$158	0xce15e7…
05-24 08:03:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	417	15¢	$61	0x080060…
05-24 08:03:37	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	368	63¢	$234	0x23c674…
05-24 08:03:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	609	31¢	$189	0x620d78…
05-24 08:03:16	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x9e6dca…
05-24 08:03:15	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xe22945…
05-24 08:03:15	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x0c75b1…
05-24 07:54:10	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xd5dcae…
05-24 07:37:29	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	6	52¢	$3	0x2c87b7…
05-24 07:34:13	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xecf754…
05-24 06:51:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0x86db42…
05-24 06:47:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x156cfd…
05-24 04:35:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0xb2e9f4…
05-24 04:34:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x464710…
05-24 04:04:41	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	BUY	3,310	0¢	$7	0xd742ed…
05-24 04:00:29	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xf8d315…
05-24 04:00:01	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xbeb864…
05-24 03:59:18	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x2ab81b…
05-24 03:58:57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe1d6ff…
05-24 03:56:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0x7a9484…
05-24 03:54:01	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0xee6707…
05-24 03:53:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x264b14…
05-24 03:31:54	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xe8a02a…
05-24 03:10:39	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x78e3f5…
05-24 03:10:32	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x1a9681…
05-24 03:10:09	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	63	14¢	$9	0xc55602…
05-24 02:05:12	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0x910af3…
05-24 02:05:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	46	14¢	$6	0xd3dee7…
05-24 02:05:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0xd1ac9d…
05-24 02:04:49	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x6f20b6…
05-24 02:04:38	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0xfe58b8…