Junior-Burn 0xc77bc7…a6a526
new
← all wallets
Realized P&L
—
Unrealized P&L
+$9
Hit rate
—
Resolved
0
Trades
29
lifetime
Volume
$796
lifetime
Avg / trade
$27
Open exposure
$801
18 positions
First seen
2026-05-04
last 05-06 01:28
Equity curve
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Politics
56% — —
Other
44% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
3 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran leadership change by May 31? No +380 $342 93¢ $353 +$11 05-04 20:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? No -206 $-202 97¢ $-201 +$1 05-05 20:45
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30? Yes +50 $47 98¢ $49 +$2 05-05 20:49
Trump out as President by June 30? No +40 $39 98¢ $39 +$0 05-05 19:08
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -38 $-34 94¢ $-36 $-1 05-04 22:29
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? No -35 $-33 99¢ $-35 $-2 05-05 18:38
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? Yes -28 $-26 99¢ $-28 $-2 05-05 20:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -25 $-23 94¢ $-24 $-0 05-05 19:08
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Yes +986 $9 1¢ $14 +$5 05-05 23:40
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? No -5 $-5 98¢ $-5 $-0 05-06 01:28
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? Yes +5 $5 96¢ $5 $-0 05-05 14:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? No +5 $5 95¢ $5 +$0 05-05 23:15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -5 $-4 74¢ $-4 $-0 05-05 23:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? No +5 $2 45¢ $2 $-0 05-04 20:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Yes +37 $3 5¢ $2 $-1 05-05 23:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes -5 $-1 18¢ $-1 +$0 05-05 23:05
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? Yes +10 $2 6¢ $1 $-1 05-05 21:39
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? Yes +75 $4 0¢ $0 $-4 05-05 19:08