Realized P&L (30d)
-$22
Unrealized P&L
-$670
Hit rate
23.7%
Resolved (30d)
10
Trades (30d)
1
19,191 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$0
$467.0K lifetime
Avg / trade
$24
Open exposure
$5.12K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-07 20:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 201 days
Categories
Politics
59% 53% -$3,932
Other
39% 57% +$584
Tech
2% 45% +$182
Pop-Culture
0% 57% -$29
Sports
0% 40% +$6
Crypto
0% 36% -$120
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -1,370 -$921 86¢ $-1181 -$261 05-07 21:34
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes -478 -$369 92¢ $-442 -$74 05-23 08:58
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -469 -$281 86¢ $-403 -$122 04-29 05:04
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -310 -$273 96¢ $-296 -$23 05-07 21:41
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No -283 -$215 95¢ $-269 -$54 05-24 08:06
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -400 -$180 63¢ $-252 -$72 05-25 05:46
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No -266 -$234 92¢ $-244 -$10 05-23 08:58
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -210 -$195 98¢ $-205 -$10 05-24 08:07
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No -197 -$137 93¢ $-183 -$46 05-25 05:47
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -196 -$167 93¢ $-182 -$16 05-07 07:16
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -180 -$162 95¢ $-171 -$9 04-29 09:17
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No -128 -$121 97¢ $-125 -$3 05-02 06:56
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -124 -$108 98¢ $-122 -$14 05-01 04:27
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -120 -$98 96¢ $-115 -$17 05-08 18:56
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -255 -$20 42¢ $-108 -$87 07-03 18:19
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No -109 -$88 97¢ $-106 -$17 05-25 05:48
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No -340 -$133 29¢ $-99 +$34 05-25 07:17
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No -100 -$88 92¢ $-92 -$4 05-25 07:18
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -100 -$73 80¢ $-80 -$7 07-20 23:13
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -400 -$72 16¢ $-66 +$6 05-25 07:15
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No -86 -$71 64¢ $-55 +$15 05-24 08:06
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No -55 -$50 97¢ $-53 -$3 05-25 14:16
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -47 -$32 92¢ $-43 -$11 05-15 18:54
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No -68 -$54 61¢ $-41 +$12 05-25 14:15
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No -45 -$36 92¢ $-41 -$5 07-03 19:53
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No -41 -$35 94¢ $-38 -$3 05-27 17:29
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes -1,309 -$118 2¢ $-30 +$88 05-04 07:25
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No -390 -$82 8¢ $-29 +$53 05-10 03:26
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes -40 -$17 70¢ $-28 -$11 07-03 19:53
EU dissolves before 2027? No -24 -$23 98¢ $-24 $0 05-22 00:34