Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
open
Total volume
$2,064
$2,387 in 24h
Trades
81
Unique wallets
34
Liquidity
$24,467
Latest YES mid
16¢
Latest NO mid
84¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-18 05:19
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 7 | $65 | $28 | +$37 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 3 | — | $46 | $46 |
| 🐟 Fish | 8 | — | $351 | $351 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 16 | $56 | $104 | $48 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $40 | $28 | +$12 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $16 | — | +$16 |
| Median | 6 | $1 | $80 | $79 |
| Below median | 3 | — | — | +— |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 5 | $10 | $45 | $35 |
| unranked | 13 | $55 | $375 | $321 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarcastic-Attainment 0x2854…9120 | No | +293 | $245 | $245 | 5 | 06-12 11:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xa6f1…2994 | Yes | +217 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-07 16:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xd4f7…73bb | No | +100 | $77 | $77 | 1 | 06-07 16:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | +79 | $9 | $66 | 11 | 06-18 05:19 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +30 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-18 05:19 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +30 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-15 21:48 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | No | +30 | $24 | $24 | 1 | 05-31 20:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x9506…c548 | Yes | +28 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-18 05:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x5923…49cd | No | +19 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 06-16 10:31 |
| Long-Term-Fog 0x7049…3dea | No | +16 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 06-11 09:37 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +14 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-29 13:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xac08…5ead | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-11 17:20 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe04…eb0c | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-28 09:54 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-28 09:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x6e79…3996 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-07 18:51 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-18 05:19:19 | (anonymous) 0x9506…c548 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 17¢ | $5 | 0x7bc85c… |
| 06-18 05:19:19 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 28 | 17¢ | $5 | 0x7bc85c… |
| 06-18 05:19:16 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 30 | 16¢ | $5 | 0x8f4a27… |
| 06-18 05:19:16 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 16¢ | $5 | 0x8f4a27… |
| 06-17 20:09:07 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | SELL | 426 | 85¢ | $362 | 0xf94be6… |
| 06-17 20:09:07 | (anonymous) 0x7d56…0ba5 | Yes | SELL | 548 | 15¢ | $82 | 0xf94be6… |
| 06-17 20:09:07 | Linear-Completion 0x9370…9e88 | No | SELL | 122 | 85¢ | $104 | 0xf94be6… |
| 06-16 12:01:54 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 14 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x140349… |
| 06-16 12:01:54 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 14 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x140349… |
| 06-16 10:31:00 | (anonymous) 0x5923…49cd | No | BUY | 19 | 85¢ | $16 | 0xaffa0d… |
| 06-16 10:31:00 | Linear-Completion 0x9370…9e88 | No | SELL | 19 | 85¢ | $16 | 0xaffa0d… |
| 06-16 08:42:36 | Linear-Completion 0x9370…9e88 | No | SELL | 174 | 85¢ | $148 | 0xb3292d… |
| 06-16 08:42:36 | Lost-Mutton 0x7816…af9d | Yes | SELL | 174 | 15¢ | $26 | 0xb3292d… |
| 06-16 08:42:15 | Grown-Billion 0x0da4…edde | No | SELL | 188 | 84¢ | $158 | 0x09e2f1… |
| 06-16 08:42:15 | Lost-Mutton 0x7816…af9d | Yes | SELL | 188 | 16¢ | $30 | 0x09e2f1… |
| 06-15 21:48:40 | Monthly-Paranoia 0xc85d…18b2 | No | BUY | 30 | 83¢ | $25 | 0xbf1622… |
| 06-15 21:48:40 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xbf1622… |
| 06-15 21:48:09 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xc32792… |
| 06-15 21:48:09 | Monthly-Paranoia 0xc85d…18b2 | No | BUY | 60 | 83¢ | $50 | 0xc32792… |
| 06-15 21:48:09 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 9 | 17¢ | $2 | 0xc32792… |
| 06-12 23:38:13 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 1 | 20¢ | $0 | 0xe5165b… |
| 06-12 23:38:13 | Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | SELL | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0xe5165b… |
| 06-12 23:38:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 4 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xe5165b… |
| 06-12 16:59:57 | Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | SELL | 4 | 80¢ | $3 | 0x5e4038… |
| 06-12 16:59:57 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 4 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x5e4038… |
| 06-12 16:55:39 | Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | BUY | 3 | 83¢ | $3 | 0xb72fd3… |
| 06-12 16:55:39 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 3 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xb72fd3… |
| 06-12 16:44:21 | Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | BUY | 6 | 83¢ | $5 | 0x54c198… |
| 06-12 16:44:21 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 6 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x54c198… |
| 06-12 11:21:13 | Sarcastic-Attainment 0x2854…9120 | No | BUY | 2 | 81¢ | $2 | 0x1216e8… |
| 06-12 11:21:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 2 | 81¢ | $2 | 0x1216e8… |
| 06-12 11:15:22 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 36 | 18¢ | $7 | 0x6d7467… |
| 06-12 11:15:22 | Ecstatic-Longitude 0xa579…aad0 | No | SELL | 36 | 82¢ | $30 | 0x6d7467… |
| 06-11 17:20:18 | Ecstatic-Longitude 0xa579…aad0 | No | SELL | 12 | 82¢ | $10 | 0x097a49… |
| 06-11 17:20:18 | (anonymous) 0xac08…5ead | No | BUY | 12 | 82¢ | $10 | 0x097a49… |
| 06-11 09:37:19 | Long-Term-Fog 0x7049…3dea | No | BUY | 14 | 81¢ | $12 | 0x64d0ed… |
| 06-11 09:37:19 | (anonymous) 0xe14f…c1a0 | No | SELL | 14 | 81¢ | $12 | 0x64d0ed… |
| 06-10 02:07:51 | Long-Term-Fog 0x7049…3dea | No | BUY | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0x6473e5… |
| 06-10 02:07:51 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | No | SELL | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0x6473e5… |
| 06-08 12:10:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 41 | 19¢ | $8 | 0xb04ce0… |
| 06-08 12:10:24 | Sarcastic-Attainment 0x2854…9120 | No | BUY | 50 | 81¢ | $41 | 0xb04ce0… |
| 06-08 12:10:24 | Ecstatic-Longitude 0xa579…aad0 | No | SELL | 9 | 82¢ | $8 | 0xb04ce0… |
| 06-08 06:35:15 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 21¢ | $1 | 0xabfa19… |
| 06-08 06:35:15 | Past-Polish 0x3c30…d8ab | No | SELL | 6 | 79¢ | $5 | 0xabfa19… |
| 06-07 23:21:40 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 1 | 79¢ | $1 | 0x6b03f0… |
| 06-07 23:21:40 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 1 | 21¢ | $0 | 0x6b03f0… |
| 06-07 20:49:36 | (anonymous) 0xdb0d…1762 | No | SELL | 6 | 77¢ | $5 | 0x6b46b5… |
| 06-07 20:49:36 | (anonymous) 0xaff5…44cb | Yes | SELL | 6 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x6b46b5… |
| 06-07 18:51:00 | (anonymous) 0x6e79…3996 | No | BUY | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0x96cf77… |
| 06-07 18:51:00 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 19¢ | $0 | 0x96cf77… |
| 06-07 16:22:03 | (anonymous) 0xa6f1…2994 | Yes | BUY | 217 | 23¢ | $50 | 0x37576e… |
| 06-07 16:22:03 | (anonymous) 0xd4f7…73bb | No | BUY | 100 | 77¢ | $77 | 0x37576e… |
| 06-07 16:22:03 | (anonymous) 0xaff5…44cb | Yes | SELL | 117 | 23¢ | $27 | 0x37576e… |
| 06-07 09:52:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 19¢ | $0 | 0x579de6… |
| 06-07 09:52:24 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0x579de6… |
| 06-05 00:33:31 | Happy-Go-Lucky-Nickname 0xe9d6…3221 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 22¢ | $3 | 0x28e1e3… |
| 06-05 00:33:31 | Repentant-Plough 0xad63…22ce | No | SELL | 70 | 77¢ | $54 | 0x28e1e3… |
| 06-05 00:33:31 | Ecstatic-Longitude 0xa579…aad0 | No | BUY | 58 | 77¢ | $45 | 0x28e1e3… |
| 05-31 20:28:40 | Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | No | BUY | 30 | 81¢ | $24 | 0x2f74a1… |
| 05-31 20:28:40 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 18¢ | $5 | 0x2f74a1… |
| 05-31 20:28:40 | Monthly-Paranoia 0xc85d…18b2 | No | SELL | 251 | 81¢ | $203 | 0x2f74a1… |
| 05-31 20:28:40 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 106 | 20¢ | $21 | 0x2f74a1… |
| 05-31 05:51:53 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 94 | 16¢ | $15 | 0x597b84… |
| 05-31 05:51:53 | Sarcastic-Attainment 0x2854…9120 | No | BUY | 112 | 84¢ | $94 | 0x597b84… |
| 05-31 05:51:53 | Linear-Completion 0x9370…9e88 | No | SELL | 18 | 85¢ | $15 | 0x597b84… |
| 05-31 05:51:15 | Sarcastic-Attainment 0x2854…9120 | No | BUY | 112 | 84¢ | $94 | 0x7d6f22… |
| 05-31 05:51:15 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 94 | 16¢ | $15 | 0x7d6f22… |
| 05-31 05:51:15 | Linear-Completion 0x9370…9e88 | No | SELL | 18 | 85¢ | $15 | 0x7d6f22… |
| 05-30 08:47:48 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | No | BUY | 1 | 78¢ | $1 | 0x2cbd73… |
| 05-30 08:47:48 | Marvelous-Hydrolyse 0xdee6…b754 | No | SELL | 1 | 78¢ | $1 | 0x2cbd73… |
| 05-29 13:32:40 | Sarcastic-Attainment 0x2854…9120 | No | BUY | 17 | 83¢ | $14 | 0x2b5edd… |
| 05-29 13:32:40 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 3 | 16¢ | $0 | 0x2b5edd… |
| 05-29 13:32:40 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x2b5edd… |
| 05-29 11:49:39 | Past-Polish 0x3c30…d8ab | No | BUY | 6 | 79¢ | $5 | 0xd33476… |
| 05-29 11:49:39 | Formal-Service 0x6462…daaa | No | SELL | 6 | 79¢ | $5 | 0xd33476… |
| 05-28 09:54:51 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0x716f4e… |
| 05-28 09:54:51 | (anonymous) 0xfe04…eb0c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x716f4e… |
| 05-27 20:10:03 | Monthly-Paranoia 0xc85d…18b2 | No | SELL | 35 | 80¢ | $28 | 0xe960fc… |
| 05-27 20:10:03 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 35 | 20¢ | $7 | 0xe960fc… |
| 05-27 20:07:55 | Monthly-Paranoia 0xc85d…18b2 | No | SELL | 6 | 81¢ | $5 | 0xa7a5d8… |
| 05-27 20:07:55 | Formal-Service 0x6462…daaa | No | BUY | 6 | 81¢ | $5 | 0xa7a5d8… |