Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
open
Total volume
$2,894
$2,387 in 24h
Trades
141
Unique wallets
58
Liquidity
$24,467
Latest YES mid
13¢
Latest NO mid
87¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-10 22:10
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+80.3¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $24
vs crowd: 20% YES on $1.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 11 | $146 | $34 | +$112 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | — | $130 | $130 |
| 🐟 Fish | 10 | — | $445 | $445 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 28 | $78 | $303 | $225 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | $24 | — | +$24 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 9 | $45 | $88 | $44 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $16 | $85 | $69 |
| Median | 7 | $1 | $273 | $272 |
| Below median | 6 | — | — | +— |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 9 | $61 | $75 | $14 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 21 | $77 | $391 | $314 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparse-Celsius 0x8f41…260e | Yes | +400 | $51 | $51 | 4 | 07-10 22:10 |
| Sarcastic-Attainment 0x2854…9120 | No | +304 | $254 | $254 | 6 | 07-03 20:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xa6f1…2994 | Yes | +217 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-07 16:22 |
| Optimal-Communion 0x1e3a…9e14 | Yes | +201 | $24 | $24 | 1 | 07-10 10:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | +115 | $14 | $71 | 13 | 07-07 08:23 |
| Untrue-Croup 0xdf6c…eb44 | No | +103 | $85 | $85 | 2 | 07-04 17:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x56e3…521c | Yes | +100 | $16 | $16 | 7 | 07-06 07:50 |
| (anonymous) 0xd4f7…73bb | No | +100 | $77 | $77 | 1 | 06-07 16:22 |
| Modern-Malice 0x9bae…5d34 | No | +50 | $42 | $42 | 1 | 07-01 22:40 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +30 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-15 21:48 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | No | +30 | $24 | $24 | 1 | 05-31 20:28 |
| Enormous-Fluke 0x23cc…4f5a | No | +22 | $18 | $18 | 5 | 07-10 22:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x5923…49cd | No | +19 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 06-16 10:31 |
| Sardonic-Archer 0xc9ad…79d0 | No | +17 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 07-06 07:50 |
| Long-Term-Fog 0x7049…3dea | No | +16 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 06-11 09:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | +15 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-29 03:40 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +14 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-29 13:32 |
| Monthly-Paranoia 0xc85d…18b2 | No | +14 | $26 | $498 | 7 | 07-10 22:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xac08…5ead | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-11 17:20 |
| Dizzy-Strand 0x4934…6d71 | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-03 19:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | +8 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 16:40 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +7 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 07-04 23:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x3677…c090 | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-26 08:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 03:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe04…eb0c | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-28 09:54 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-28 09:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x6e79…3996 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-07 18:51 |
| Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | +1 | $1 | $27 | 8 | 06-29 18:38 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 22:10:44 | Guilty-Trail 0xae58…e5c5 | No | SELL | 2 | 86¢ | $2 | 0x899ac2… |
| 07-10 22:10:44 | Enormous-Fluke 0x23cc…4f5a | No | BUY | 2 | 86¢ | $2 | 0x899ac2… |
| 07-10 22:10:34 | Sparse-Celsius 0x8f41…260e | Yes | BUY | 47 | 12¢ | $6 | 0x38ca72… |
| 07-10 22:10:34 | Monthly-Paranoia 0xc85d…18b2 | No | BUY | 80 | 88¢ | $70 | 0x38ca72… |
| 07-10 22:10:34 | Dull-Universe 0x1f0a…f7aa | No | SELL | 33 | 88¢ | $29 | 0x38ca72… |
| 07-10 10:24:52 | Optimal-Communion 0x1e3a…9e14 | Yes | BUY | 201 | 12¢ | $24 | 0xa8b106… |
| 07-10 10:24:52 | Sad-Finish 0x0fdd…f45a | Yes | SELL | 454 | 12¢ | $55 | 0xa8b106… |
| 07-10 10:24:52 | Sparse-Celsius 0x8f41…260e | Yes | BUY | 153 | 12¢ | $18 | 0xa8b106… |
| 07-07 08:23:58 | Sparse-Celsius 0x8f41…260e | Yes | BUY | 100 | 14¢ | $14 | 0x3bb5aa… |
| 07-07 08:23:58 | Monthly-Paranoia 0xc85d…18b2 | No | BUY | 136 | 86¢ | $117 | 0x3bb5aa… |
| 07-07 08:23:58 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 21 | 14¢ | $3 | 0x3bb5aa… |
| 07-06 07:50:04 | Sardonic-Archer 0xc9ad…79d0 | No | BUY | 17 | 84¢ | $15 | 0x9e3bbc… |
| 07-06 07:50:04 | (anonymous) 0x56e3…521c | Yes | BUY | 17 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x9e3bbc… |
| 07-04 23:01:53 | (anonymous) 0x56e3…521c | Yes | BUY | 7 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x56e598… |
| 07-04 23:01:53 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 7 | 84¢ | $6 | 0x56e598… |
| 07-04 17:22:41 | Nifty-Dilapidation 0x50d7…e193 | No | SELL | 91 | 83¢ | $76 | 0x8a1afd… |
| 07-04 17:22:41 | Untrue-Croup 0xdf6c…eb44 | No | BUY | 73 | 83¢ | $60 | 0x8a1afd… |
| 07-04 17:22:41 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 18 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x8a1afd… |
| 07-03 20:54:23 | (anonymous) 0x601f…76ad | Yes | SELL | 9 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x57c0a7… |
| 07-03 20:54:23 | (anonymous) 0x56e3…521c | Yes | BUY | 9 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x57c0a7… |
| 07-03 20:28:38 | Sarcastic-Attainment 0x2854…9120 | No | BUY | 11 | 83¢ | $9 | 0x4da7eb… |
| 07-03 20:28:38 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 17¢ | $0 | 0x4da7eb… |
| 07-03 20:28:38 | (anonymous) 0x601f…76ad | Yes | BUY | 9 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x4da7eb… |
| 07-03 19:53:50 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x48a61e… |
| 07-03 19:53:50 | Dizzy-Strand 0x4934…6d71 | No | BUY | 12 | 80¢ | $10 | 0x48a61e… |
| 07-03 19:53:50 | Junior-Burn 0xc77b…a526 | No | SELL | 47 | 82¢ | $39 | 0x48a61e… |
| 07-03 19:53:50 | Enormous-Fluke 0x23cc…4f5a | No | BUY | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0x48a61e… |
| 07-02 06:39:11 | (anonymous) 0x56e3…521c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xeb5150… |
| 07-02 06:39:11 | Enormous-Fluke 0x23cc…4f5a | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0xeb5150… |
| 07-01 22:40:28 | Modern-Malice 0x9bae…5d34 | No | BUY | 50 | 84¢ | $42 | 0xe0badb… |
| 07-01 22:40:28 | (anonymous) 0x56e3…521c | Yes | BUY | 50 | 16¢ | $8 | 0xe0badb… |
| 06-29 18:38:01 | Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0xae36d2… |
| 06-29 18:38:01 | (anonymous) 0x56e3…521c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xae36d2… |
| 06-29 18:37:17 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x5deaac… |
| 06-29 18:37:17 | Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | SELL | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x5deaac… |
| 06-29 16:40:16 | (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xf06128… |
| 06-29 16:40:16 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 8 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xf06128… |
| 06-29 03:40:11 | (anonymous) 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xb225dd… |
| 06-29 03:40:11 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xb225dd… |
| 06-29 03:40:11 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xb225dd… |
| 06-26 08:27:47 | (anonymous) 0x56e3…521c | Yes | BUY | 6 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xff69b3… |
| 06-26 08:27:47 | (anonymous) 0x3677…c090 | No | BUY | 6 | 84¢ | $5 | 0xff69b3… |
| 06-25 08:19:17 | (anonymous) 0x9506…c548 | Yes | SELL | 28 | 15¢ | $4 | 0x7cb823… |
| 06-25 08:19:17 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | SELL | 28 | 85¢ | $24 | 0x7cb823… |
| 06-25 08:19:16 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 16 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xc1801e… |
| 06-25 08:19:16 | Untrue-Croup 0xdf6c…eb44 | No | BUY | 30 | 83¢ | $25 | 0xc1801e… |
| 06-25 08:19:16 | Teeming-Fatherinlaw 0x8f2e…caf6 | No | SELL | 74 | 83¢ | $62 | 0xc1801e… |
| 06-25 08:19:16 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 28 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xc1801e… |
| 06-23 22:03:19 | Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | BUY | 2 | 85¢ | $2 | 0xedfcc8… |
| 06-23 22:03:19 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | SELL | 2 | 85¢ | $2 | 0xedfcc8… |
| 06-23 20:04:16 | Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | SELL | 2 | 83¢ | $2 | 0xcc3bf0… |
| 06-23 20:04:16 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 17¢ | $0 | 0xcc3bf0… |
| 06-23 18:56:53 | Primary-Liquidity 0x5276…5e7a | Yes | SELL | 4 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x0da20d… |
| 06-23 18:56:53 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | SELL | 4 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x0da20d… |
| 06-21 14:16:44 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | SELL | 4 | 85¢ | $3 | 0x5d4020… |
| 06-21 14:16:44 | Soft-Jicama 0xd966…81eb | Yes | SELL | 4 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x5d4020… |
| 06-20 14:21:16 | (anonymous) 0xc6b2…3caa | Yes | SELL | 10 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x82180e… |
| 06-20 14:21:16 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | SELL | 10 | 85¢ | $8 | 0x82180e… |
| 06-20 08:59:50 | (anonymous) 0x0bee…4046 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 15¢ | $4 | 0x43026f… |
| 06-20 08:59:50 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | SELL | 30 | 85¢ | $26 | 0x43026f… |
| 06-18 05:19:19 | (anonymous) 0x9506…c548 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 17¢ | $5 | 0x7bc85c… |
| 06-18 05:19:19 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 28 | 17¢ | $5 | 0x7bc85c… |
| 06-18 05:19:16 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 16¢ | $5 | 0x8f4a27… |
| 06-18 05:19:16 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 30 | 16¢ | $5 | 0x8f4a27… |
| 06-17 20:09:07 | Linear-Completion 0x9370…9e88 | No | SELL | 122 | 85¢ | $104 | 0xf94be6… |
| 06-17 20:09:07 | (anonymous) 0x7d56…0ba5 | Yes | SELL | 548 | 15¢ | $82 | 0xf94be6… |
| 06-17 20:09:07 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | SELL | 426 | 85¢ | $362 | 0xf94be6… |
| 06-16 12:01:54 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 14 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x140349… |
| 06-16 12:01:54 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 14 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x140349… |
| 06-16 10:31:00 | (anonymous) 0x5923…49cd | No | BUY | 19 | 85¢ | $16 | 0xaffa0d… |
| 06-16 10:31:00 | Linear-Completion 0x9370…9e88 | No | SELL | 19 | 85¢ | $16 | 0xaffa0d… |
| 06-16 08:42:36 | Lost-Mutton 0x7816…af9d | Yes | SELL | 174 | 15¢ | $26 | 0xb3292d… |
| 06-16 08:42:36 | Linear-Completion 0x9370…9e88 | No | SELL | 174 | 85¢ | $148 | 0xb3292d… |
| 06-16 08:42:15 | Lost-Mutton 0x7816…af9d | Yes | SELL | 188 | 16¢ | $30 | 0x09e2f1… |
| 06-16 08:42:15 | Grown-Billion 0x0da4…edde | No | SELL | 188 | 84¢ | $158 | 0x09e2f1… |
| 06-15 21:48:40 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xbf1622… |
| 06-15 21:48:40 | Monthly-Paranoia 0xc85d…18b2 | No | BUY | 30 | 83¢ | $25 | 0xbf1622… |
| 06-15 21:48:09 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xc32792… |
| 06-15 21:48:09 | Monthly-Paranoia 0xc85d…18b2 | No | BUY | 60 | 83¢ | $50 | 0xc32792… |
| 06-15 21:48:09 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 9 | 17¢ | $2 | 0xc32792… |
| 06-12 23:38:13 | Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | SELL | 5 | 80¢ | $4 | 0xe5165b… |
| 06-12 23:38:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 4 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xe5165b… |
| 06-12 23:38:13 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 1 | 20¢ | $0 | 0xe5165b… |
| 06-12 16:59:57 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 4 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x5e4038… |
| 06-12 16:59:57 | Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | SELL | 4 | 80¢ | $3 | 0x5e4038… |
| 06-12 16:55:39 | Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | BUY | 3 | 83¢ | $3 | 0xb72fd3… |
| 06-12 16:55:39 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 3 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xb72fd3… |
| 06-12 16:44:21 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 6 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x54c198… |
| 06-12 16:44:21 | Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | BUY | 6 | 83¢ | $5 | 0x54c198… |
| 06-12 11:21:13 | Sarcastic-Attainment 0x2854…9120 | No | BUY | 2 | 81¢ | $2 | 0x1216e8… |
| 06-12 11:21:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 2 | 81¢ | $2 | 0x1216e8… |
| 06-12 11:15:22 | Ecstatic-Longitude 0xa579…aad0 | No | SELL | 36 | 82¢ | $30 | 0x6d7467… |
| 06-12 11:15:22 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 36 | 18¢ | $7 | 0x6d7467… |
| 06-11 17:20:18 | (anonymous) 0xac08…5ead | No | BUY | 12 | 82¢ | $10 | 0x097a49… |
| 06-11 17:20:18 | Ecstatic-Longitude 0xa579…aad0 | No | SELL | 12 | 82¢ | $10 | 0x097a49… |
| 06-11 09:37:19 | Long-Term-Fog 0x7049…3dea | No | BUY | 14 | 81¢ | $12 | 0x64d0ed… |
| 06-11 09:37:19 | (anonymous) 0xe14f…c1a0 | No | SELL | 14 | 81¢ | $12 | 0x64d0ed… |
| 06-10 02:07:51 | Long-Term-Fog 0x7049…3dea | No | BUY | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0x6473e5… |
| 06-10 02:07:51 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | No | SELL | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0x6473e5… |
| 06-08 12:10:24 | Sarcastic-Attainment 0x2854…9120 | No | BUY | 50 | 81¢ | $41 | 0xb04ce0… |