Untrue-Croup 0xdf6caf…ebeb44
hot 3W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$4.31K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.75K
Hit rate
83.9%
Resolved
219
Trades
1,969
lifetime
Volume
$88.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$45
Open exposure
$6.01K
20 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 10-27 03:02
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 69 days
Categories
Other
86% 54% +$5,290
Politics
13% 60% -$543
Sports
1% 75% -$405
Tech
0% 0% -$30
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
36 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +2,880 $1,801 96¢ $2.8K +$949 09-25 12:22
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes +2,050 $783 72¢ $1.5K +$683 10-06 10:45
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -510 -$478 98¢ $-497 -$19 06-11 16:28
friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before october 31 2026 No +300 $255 100¢ $299 +$44 09-16 10:35
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -209 -$203 98¢ $-205 -$2 09-11 21:51
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -250 -$185 78¢ $-196 -$11 06-20 18:26
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No +160 $131 90¢ $144 +$13 09-15 11:15
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -105 -$101 98¢ $-103 -$2 09-10 11:11
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -855 -$134 10¢ $-83 +$51 06-19 21:29
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +2,160 $48 4¢ $77 +$28 06-11 23:54
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? No -42 -$41 95¢ $-40 +$1 06-21 12:19
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No -40 -$38 100¢ $-40 -$1 06-13 06:43
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -200 -$26 17¢ $-33 -$8 09-15 15:49
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? No -26 -$25 97¢ $-25 +$0 09-12 08:33
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -130 -$27 18¢ $-24 +$3 07-03 01:10
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -100 -$16 12¢ $-12 +$4 06-18 17:14
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No -10 -$11 88¢ $-9 +$2 06-18 07:04
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +260 $9 2¢ $6 -$2 06-08 10:10
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +0 -$24 82¢ $0 +$24 06-21 06:13
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No +0 $5 40¢ $0 -$5 09-21 13:25