Frivolous-Charm 0xed1948…09cb5e
whale
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$237
Unrealized P&L
+$173
Hit rate
83.2%
Resolved
7
Trades
5,745
lifetime
Volume
$114.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$20
Open exposure
$3.85K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-07
last 06-30 08:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Politics
64% 67% $-236
Other
32% 0% $-1
Tech
4% — —
Sports
0% — —
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
54 active days in 12wk • peak 264 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -750 $-735 100¢ $-750 $-14 06-07 05:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +1,356 $421 36¢ $481 +$61 06-29 16:57
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No -434 $-429 100¢ $-434 $-5 06-08 07:58
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No -333 $-333 100¢ $-332 +$1 06-10 15:28
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +250 $230 100¢ $250 +$20 05-31 21:38
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +189 $175 100¢ $188 +$13 06-16 06:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +240 $140 64¢ $155 +$15 06-28 20:28
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +280 $157 52¢ $147 $-10 06-24 18:23
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No +130 $78 100¢ $130 +$51 06-19 20:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +115 $102 82¢ $95 $-7 06-27 12:48
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +120 $92 77¢ $92 +$0 06-12 12:52
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No +95 $79 81¢ $77 $-2 06-30 07:19
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +80 $66 86¢ $69 +$3 06-20 22:10
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No +74 $68 92¢ $68 $-0 06-29 17:43
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +141 $64 48¢ $67 +$3 06-22 13:42
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +78 $60 84¢ $65 +$6 06-11 20:11
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +60 $49 86¢ $51 +$3 06-12 09:08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +360 $66 14¢ $49 $-17 06-14 22:11
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No +58 $46 76¢ $44 $-1 06-27 12:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +44 $-9 100¢ $44 +$53 06-25 15:15
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No +40 $36 99¢ $39 +$3 06-18 12:17
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No +41 $37 91¢ $37 +$0 06-25 02:36
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No +37 $36 100¢ $36 +$0 06-26 17:34
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes +60 $32 45¢ $27 $-4 06-26 13:43
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +75 $36 34¢ $26 $-11 06-30 07:22
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No +38 $21 58¢ $22 +$1 06-24 16:13
X banned in any European country by December 31? No +26 $17 78¢ $20 +$3 06-16 08:53
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No +20 $12 96¢ $19 +$7 06-16 04:42
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +26 $19 72¢ $19 $-0 06-16 15:10
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes +40 $12 40¢ $16 +$4 06-27 10:46