Realized P&L
-$3.18K
Unrealized P&L
+$7.64K
Hit rate
10.8%
Resolved
6
Trades
2,536
lifetime
Volume
$1.21M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$477
Open exposure
$105.5K
28 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 12:09
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
51%
33%
$-3,461
Other
41%
—
—
Crypto
7%
—
—
Sports
0%
100%
+$278
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
78 active days in 12wk
• peak 62 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | -21,243 | $-21,187 | 100¢ | $-21222 | $-35 | 06-26 19:13 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -30,887 | $-18,975 | 55¢ | $-16834 | +$2,141 | 06-04 00:28 | |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | +10,984 | $10,807 | 100¢ | $11.0K | +$144 | 06-16 08:28 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +10,895 | $8,122 | 88¢ | $9.5K | +$1,412 | 06-02 16:15 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | +6,773 | $5,734 | 86¢ | $5.8K | +$56 | 06-30 12:09 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | +5,510 | $5,123 | 99¢ | $5.5K | +$356 | 06-20 14:28 | |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | +5,557 | $4,688 | 88¢ | $4.9K | +$230 | 06-18 16:24 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +6,043 | $3,864 | 81¢ | $4.9K | +$1,030 | 06-05 20:28 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -8,862 | $-5,121 | 38¢ | $-3323 | +$1,798 | 06-02 08:45 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? | No | +3,006 | $2,961 | 100¢ | $3.0K | +$37 | 06-16 09:03 | |
| MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? | No | -2,917 | $-2,912 | 99¢ | $-2885 | +$26 | 06-29 16:57 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | No | +2,535 | $2,317 | 100¢ | $2.5K | +$216 | 06-29 21:52 | |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | No | -2,100 | $-2,114 | 100¢ | $-2097 | +$17 | 06-30 07:38 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | +2,000 | $1,700 | 90¢ | $1.8K | +$90 | 06-28 00:10 | |
| Megaquake by June 30? | No | +1,702 | $1,582 | 99¢ | $1.7K | +$96 | 06-28 11:53 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | +1,634 | $1,278 | 84¢ | $1.4K | +$86 | 06-19 11:06 | |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? | No | +1,363 | $1,322 | 100¢ | $1.4K | +$39 | 06-01 18:02 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | +1,512 | $1,346 | 88¢ | $1.3K | $-8 | 06-26 08:05 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | +1,131 | $1,030 | 90¢ | $1.0K | $-6 | 06-27 19:22 | |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | No | +1,000 | $820 | 78¢ | $775 | $-45 | 06-29 15:26 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -1,000 | $-670 | 78¢ | $-775 | $-105 | 06-06 07:16 | |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? | No | +561 | $577 | 99¢ | $556 | $-21 | 06-26 15:37 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? | No | +447 | $412 | 100¢ | $447 | +$34 | 06-05 16:41 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +381 | $305 | 88¢ | $334 | +$28 | 06-01 19:05 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | +302 | $238 | 80¢ | $243 | +$5 | 06-25 19:59 | |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | Yes | +1,000 | $203 | 22¢ | $225 | +$22 | 06-30 09:11 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | +100 | $85 | 82¢ | $81 | $-3 | 06-22 12:46 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | No | +46 | $43 | 100¢ | $46 | +$3 | 05-31 08:10 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | 96 | $76.7K | 48,513 | 36,848 | +11,665 | open | — | 05-15 22:26 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 100 | $62.1K | 37,925 | 38,043 | -119 | Yes | $-1,360 | 05-08 18:22 |
| us strikes iran by february 27 2026 | 48 | $48.7K | 33,781 | 19,297 | +14,484 | open | — | 02-27 22:22 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 63 | $41.4K | 23,680 | 21,600 | +2,080 | open | — | 03-31 05:02 |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | 54 | $36.1K | 24,487 | 17,193 | +7,294 | open | — | 05-31 19:15 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 29 | $35.6K | 16,946 | 20,670 | -3,724 | open | — | 01-26 16:54 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | 52 | $33.9K | 20,586 | 20,918 | -332 | open | — | 05-29 14:47 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 27 | $30.4K | 15,682 | 15,682 | +0 | open | — | 04-02 05:31 |
| will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 41 | $29.9K | 14,367 | 16,800 | -2,433 | open | — | 02-06 15:32 |
| us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155 | 35 | $29.6K | 16,301 | 14,782 | +1,519 | open | — | 01-23 18:44 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 21 | $26.6K | 13,661 | 13,661 | +0 | open | — | 03-17 10:32 |
| Starmer out by March 31, 2026? | 65 | $26.4K | 23,529 | 5,400 | +18,129 | open | — | 03-25 10:04 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | 34 | $25.4K | 19,059 | 19,059 | +0 | Yes | $-2,261 | 05-08 18:27 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 27 | $25.1K | 12,935 | 12,935 | +0 | open | — | 05-18 10:21 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 10 | $24.3K | 13,170 | 13,170 | +0 | open | — | 04-07 09:30 |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | 99 | $23.5K | 15,743 | 9,396 | +6,347 | open | — | 04-22 10:28 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 21 | $22.5K | 650 | 21,893 | -21,243 | open | — | 06-26 19:13 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 25 | $20.5K | 10,905 | 10,905 | +0 | open | — | 04-07 09:30 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | 57 | $19.7K | 16,262 | 7,686 | +8,576 | open | — | 04-30 18:43 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 13 | $19.0K | 0 | 30,887 | -30,887 | open | — | 06-04 00:28 |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | 25 | $16.8K | 14,284 | 3,300 | +10,984 | open | — | 06-16 08:28 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 4 | $14.7K | 8,100 | 7,000 | +1,100 | open | — | 05-31 08:59 |
| starmer out by june 15 2026 | 17 | $14.6K | 8,838 | 6,000 | +2,838 | open | — | 06-14 17:21 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15 | 27 | $14.6K | 6,866 | 8,000 | -1,134 | open | — | 06-19 21:00 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026 | 22 | $14.5K | 7,301 | 7,500 | -199 | open | — | 01-29 11:59 |
| Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | 61 | $14.0K | 7,929 | 7,929 | +0 | open | — | 02-09 10:17 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 30 | $13.1K | 7,500 | 6,421 | +1,079 | open | — | 02-28 09:02 |
| Starmer out by May 19, 2026? | 17 | $12.6K | 6,675 | 6,675 | +0 | open | — | 05-19 20:39 |
| us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991 | 40 | $12.0K | 12,922 | 0 | +12,922 | open | — | 01-17 08:56 |
| will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 70 | $11.4K | 6,556 | 5,110 | +1,446 | open | — | 02-06 13:11 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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