Blaring-Surge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.18K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

10.8%

Resolved

Trades

3,105

lifetime

Volume

$1.49M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$480

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 17:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

47% — —

Politics

46% 33% $-3,461

Crypto

6% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$278

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 62 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	96	$76.7K	48,513	36,848	+11,665	open	—	05-15 22:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	100	$62.1K	37,925	38,043	-119	Yes	$-1,360	05-08 18:22
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	48	$48.7K	33,781	19,297	+14,484	open	—	02-27 22:22
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	63	$41.4K	23,680	21,600	+2,080	open	—	03-31 05:02
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	54	$36.1K	24,487	17,193	+7,294	open	—	05-31 19:15
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	29	$35.6K	16,946	20,670	-3,724	open	—	01-26 16:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	52	$33.9K	20,586	20,918	-332	open	—	05-29 14:47
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	42	$32.9K	16,769	16,769	+0	open	—	07-16 09:19
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	27	$30.4K	15,682	15,682	+0	open	—	04-02 05:31
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	41	$29.9K	14,367	16,800	-2,433	open	—	02-06 15:32
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	35	$29.6K	16,301	14,782	+1,519	open	—	01-23 18:44
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	21	$26.6K	13,661	13,661	+0	open	—	03-17 10:32
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	65	$26.4K	23,529	5,400	+18,129	open	—	03-25 10:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	34	$25.4K	19,059	19,059	+0	Yes	$-2,261	05-08 18:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	27	$25.1K	12,935	12,935	+0	open	—	05-18 10:21
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	10	$24.3K	13,170	13,170	+0	open	—	04-07 09:30
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	99	$23.5K	15,743	9,396	+6,347	open	—	04-22 10:28
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	21	$22.5K	650	21,893	-21,243	open	—	06-26 19:13
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	27	$21.0K	11,025	11,025	+0	open	—	08-04 09:38
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	25	$20.5K	10,905	10,905	+0	open	—	04-07 09:30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	57	$19.7K	16,262	7,686	+8,576	open	—	04-30 18:43
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	13	$19.0K	0	30,887	-30,887	open	—	06-04 00:28
will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	35	$18.8K	11,745	7,700	+4,045	open	—	07-31 12:24
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	15	$17.7K	9,000	9,000	+0	open	—	07-30 16:00
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	25	$16.8K	14,284	3,300	+10,984	open	—	06-16 08:28
israel closes its airspace by august 15	39	$16.6K	14,283	5,071	+9,212	open	—	08-08 17:10
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	87	$16.0K	15,062	3,600	+11,462	open	—	08-07 17:44
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$14.7K	8,100	7,000	+1,100	open	—	05-31 08:59
fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance	15	$14.7K	15,000	0	+15,000	open	—	07-01 17:56
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	17	$14.6K	8,838	6,000	+2,838	open	—	06-14 17:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 17:49:49	will xauusd dip to 4000 in august 2026	No	BUY	73	91¢	$66	0x977586…
08-10 17:35:04	will xauusd dip to 4000 in august 2026	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x691279…
08-10 16:50:24	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x5d5959…
08-10 15:05:15	will xauusd dip to 4000 in august 2026	No	BUY	361	91¢	$329	0x92d40c…
08-10 14:23:10	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	No	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x27e512…
08-10 14:23:09	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	No	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xc7cddc…
08-10 09:24:51	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	1,200	92¢	$1,104	0xcf1859…
08-10 09:24:25	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	2,000	98¢	$1,958	0xd429cd…
08-09 19:56:03	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x10c0f5…
08-09 19:30:00	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	25	90¢	$23	0x3fbf47…
08-09 19:26:57	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	4,400	91¢	$4,004	0x5582c6…
08-09 19:11:49	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	1	90¢	$0	0x97aeee…
08-09 18:49:04	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	SELL	2,000	99¢	$1,980	0xf46285…
08-09 18:44:10	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	250	89¢	$223	0x5d6664…
08-09 14:51:27	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	2,000	98¢	$1,960	0x0b21cb…
08-08 20:50:27	will xauusd dip to 4000 in august 2026	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xe17c35…
08-08 17:10:16	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	76	96¢	$73	0xd5eb8f…
08-08 15:58:15	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	179	96¢	$172	0xfaeb67…
08-08 10:07:55	will xauusd dip to 4000 in august 2026	No	BUY	800	91¢	$728	0x8ec42d…
08-08 09:45:12	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	336	96¢	$324	0xbd62a8…
08-07 19:43:07	will xauusd dip to 4000 in august 2026	No	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0xf9d93c…
08-07 17:44:13	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	333	81¢	$270	0x4fac94…
08-07 16:15:18	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	81	81¢	$66	0x5c3bf6…
08-07 15:13:27	will xauusd dip to 4000 in august 2026	No	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0x39a064…
08-07 15:09:22	will xauusd dip to 4000 in august 2026	No	BUY	1,106	90¢	$996	0x18ff3b…
08-07 15:09:06	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0x474297…
08-07 15:09:04	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	35	81¢	$28	0x036f72…
08-07 15:08:55	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0xdf57c1…
08-07 15:08:55	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0xac934f…
08-07 15:08:55	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x3af7cb…
08-07 15:08:54	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0xfedec1…
08-07 15:08:18	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	400	80¢	$320	0x015142…
08-07 14:56:33	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	123	81¢	$100	0x89c8ae…
08-07 14:52:21	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	300	81¢	$243	0xa3e991…
08-07 14:30:31	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0xb42887…
08-07 13:42:21	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	89	81¢	$72	0x5b3a6d…
08-07 13:25:07	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	1,700	95¢	$1,615	0xcf3927…
08-07 13:24:21	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	80¢	$1,600	0x7a735f…
08-07 08:14:12	will xauusd dip to 4000 in august 2026	No	BUY	400	84¢	$336	0x7a844e…
08-07 08:08:40	will xauusd dip to 4000 in august 2026	No	BUY	400	84¢	$336	0x80a4db…
08-06 18:51:03	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,600	98¢	$1,562	0xe14a24…
08-06 02:10:36	will xauusd dip to 3800 in august 2026	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xe648b5…
08-06 00:36:56	will xauusd dip to 3800 in august 2026	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x6c0d1b…
08-05 20:21:09	will xauusd dip to 3800 in august 2026	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x6e8f17…
08-05 19:12:36	will xauusd dip to 3800 in august 2026	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x1ae611…
08-05 18:30:30	will xauusd dip to 3800 in august 2026	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xecf66b…
08-05 16:38:06	spy closes above 765 on august 5 2026	Yes	BUY	160	96¢	$153	0x913efa…
08-05 16:37:39	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	SELL	400	99¢	$395	0x22d754…
08-05 15:59:57	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	400	90¢	$360	0xb306e7…
08-05 15:30:36	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	300	90¢	$270	0x15a096…
08-04 21:46:44	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	164	84¢	$138	0xff9b8c…
08-04 21:46:24	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	136	84¢	$114	0xa72cf0…
08-04 20:56:48	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	453	92¢	$416	0x5004a9…
08-04 16:02:57	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	59	93¢	$55	0xd63b72…
08-04 15:55:59	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	3	93¢	$2	0xfb9453…
08-04 15:36:41	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	45	93¢	$42	0x858e69…
08-04 15:33:47	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	194	93¢	$180	0xb62336…
08-04 09:38:14	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	No	SELL	1,415	100¢	$1,413	0x4c8c93…
08-04 08:24:03	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	130	85¢	$110	0x5f39d9…
08-03 10:45:53	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	993	91¢	$903	0x9f6c46…
08-03 10:45:30	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$999	0x80b615…
08-02 16:32:26	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	60	81¢	$48	0x22925c…
08-02 10:50:23	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xe5db7a…
08-02 09:55:20	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	14	91¢	$12	0x763866…
08-02 09:45:48	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	155	90¢	$140	0xdfb782…
08-02 09:45:39	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xea087e…
08-02 09:45:35	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xbed1ac…
08-02 09:45:35	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x27f9ab…
08-02 09:45:33	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x48de7a…
08-02 09:45:32	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0x2e9bac…
08-02 09:45:30	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xc1b694…
08-02 09:45:30	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x8a1101…
08-02 09:42:56	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	156	91¢	$142	0x776255…
08-02 09:41:38	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	226	91¢	$205	0xca7b8e…
08-02 09:29:36	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	756	96¢	$726	0x817dd8…
08-02 09:23:30	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0xec9a7e…
08-02 09:14:39	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	111	91¢	$101	0xa5932e…
08-02 09:11:56	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	47	91¢	$42	0x182343…
08-02 09:11:48	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x5c6d61…
08-02 09:08:29	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	375	91¢	$341	0xa6c00e…
08-02 08:39:08	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x712548…
08-02 08:38:00	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	32	91¢	$29	0x3e11d9…
08-02 08:15:02	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	4,176	91¢	$3,820	0x6b20f4…
08-02 08:14:32	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	No	SELL	4,000	100¢	$3,996	0xcf497a…
08-01 21:46:18	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x475721…
08-01 21:21:32	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	102	81¢	$83	0x721378…
08-01 19:31:56	ukraine coup attempt by december 31	No	BUY	128	92¢	$118	0x3918a6…
08-01 19:11:21	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	484	66¢	$319	0x51fd72…
08-01 17:05:26	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	875	97¢	$847	0x043f17…
08-01 16:43:15	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	3,125	97¢	$3,025	0xf55383…
08-01 16:31:23	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	No	BUY	4	86¢	$3	0xaf1bcd…
08-01 16:28:57	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	2,087	73¢	$1,524	0xc3b6eb…
08-01 16:27:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xea0f56…
08-01 16:27:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xdcd245…
08-01 16:27:20	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	416	94¢	$389	0xbd76d7…
08-01 16:27:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$19	0x85ed20…
08-01 16:26:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	142	94¢	$133	0x731576…
08-01 15:54:00	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	16	81¢	$13	0x4e4b07…
08-01 15:11:08	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	743	82¢	$609	0xb09b89…
08-01 15:06:30	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	38	82¢	$32	0x2e64d9…