Realized P&L
-$6.12K
Unrealized P&L
-$10.3K
Hit rate
66.0%
Resolved
325
Trades
5,608
lifetime
Volume
$2.82M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$503
Open exposure
$187.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 20:02
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 141 days
Categories
Other
57%
79%
+$808
Politics
36%
74%
-$5,336
Crypto
7%
86%
-$1,798
Sports
0%
83%
+$207
Tech
0%
100%
+$2
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk
• peak 82 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | +36,232 | $34,349 | 96¢ | $34.8K | +$433 | 10-27 19:19 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -32,693 | -$20,270 | 96¢ | $-31271 | -$11,000 | 09-21 20:28 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | +11,200 | $10,186 | 92¢ | $10.2K | +$62 | 10-25 20:34 | |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? | No | +7,977 | $7,736 | 99¢ | $7.9K | +$181 | 10-02 11:44 | |
| Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? | Yes | +8,547 | $7,453 | 88¢ | $7.5K | +$25 | 10-27 20:02 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | +8,200 | $7,330 | 86¢ | $7.1K | -$278 | 09-26 12:56 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | +7,337 | $6,281 | 92¢ | $6.8K | +$506 | 10-02 11:18 | |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | +7,049 | $6,031 | 94¢ | $6.6K | +$595 | 08-02 10:50 | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | -6,349 | -$4,054 | 96¢ | $-6063 | -$2,009 | 09-28 11:20 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | +6,584 | $5,359 | 81¢ | $5.3K | -$25 | 10-26 04:08 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | +5,324 | $4,599 | 94¢ | $5.0K | +$432 | 07-05 13:16 | |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | No | +5,578 | $4,780 | 90¢ | $5.0K | +$240 | 10-04 18:05 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | +5,533 | $5,225 | 86¢ | $4.7K | -$491 | 08-10 17:13 | |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | +4,795 | $4,626 | 99¢ | $4.7K | +$102 | 10-23 23:48 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? | No | +4,625 | $4,270 | 99¢ | $4.6K | +$293 | 10-07 17:59 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -4,818 | -$2,171 | 92¢ | $-4457 | -$2,285 | 08-20 20:17 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | +4,382 | $5,071 | 99¢ | $4.3K | -$740 | 09-16 17:32 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | +4,430 | $3,690 | 94¢ | $4.2K | +$496 | 07-07 09:10 | |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | No | +4,476 | $3,742 | 92¢ | $4.1K | +$376 | 07-21 19:34 | |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | No | +4,288 | $3,824 | 96¢ | $4.1K | +$292 | 09-22 19:56 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? | Yes | +2,831 | $2,754 | 100¢ | $2.8K | +$78 | 10-26 23:25 | |
| Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | +2,658 | $2,392 | 88¢ | $2.4K | -$40 | 10-19 20:54 | |
| Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | No | +2,388 | $2,877 | 96¢ | $2.3K | -$572 | 10-25 22:18 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | +2,290 | $558 | 96¢ | $2.2K | +$1,639 | 10-23 20:07 | |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | +1,912 | $1,850 | 98¢ | $1.9K | +$23 | 10-27 10:44 | |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | +1,663 | $1,532 | 97¢ | $1.6K | +$75 | 07-15 11:33 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -1,587 | -$1,533 | 98¢ | $-1551 | -$18 | 09-21 20:27 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | Yes | +1,399 | $354 | 100¢ | $1.4K | +$1,045 | 10-27 19:44 | |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | No | +1,500 | $1,410 | 92¢ | $1.4K | -$38 | 10-07 19:15 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,500 | $997 | 90¢ | $1.3K | +$345 | 08-20 23:36 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 39 | $89.7K | 50,779 | 50,779 | +0 | Yes | -$2,248 | 07-21 14:23 |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | 97 | $77.4K | 49,205 | 36,848 | +12,357 | No | -$729 | 05-15 22:26 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 100 | $62.1K | 37,925 | 38,043 | -119 | Yes | -$1,360 | 05-08 18:22 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 42 | $50.8K | 45,232 | 9,000 | +36,232 | open | — | 10-27 19:19 |
| us strikes iran by february 27 2026 | 48 | $48.7K | 33,781 | 19,297 | +14,484 | No | +$472 | 02-27 22:22 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 63 | $41.4K | 23,680 | 21,600 | +2,080 | No | +$1,034 | 03-31 05:02 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | 106 | $38.0K | 19,652 | 26,001 | -6,349 | open | — | 09-28 11:20 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | 31 | $37.0K | 19,790 | 18,391 | +1,399 | open | — | 10-27 19:44 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | 42 | $37.0K | 35,285 | 3,541 | +31,743 | No | +$1,830 | 09-01 07:14 |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | 54 | $36.1K | 24,487 | 17,193 | +7,294 | No | -$2,605 | 05-31 19:15 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 29 | $35.6K | 16,946 | 20,670 | -3,724 | Yes | +$576 | 01-26 16:54 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 10 | $35.4K | 25,078 | 13,878 | +11,200 | open | — | 10-25 20:34 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | 55 | $34.5K | 21,248 | 20,918 | +330 | No | -$1,639 | 05-29 14:47 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 106 | $33.8K | 19,552 | 17,262 | +2,290 | open | — | 10-23 20:07 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | 33 | $33.3K | 27,196 | 6,893 | +20,303 | Yes | +$714 | 10-22 17:47 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 35 | $33.1K | 11,893 | 21,893 | -10,000 | No | +$506 | 06-26 19:13 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15 | 42 | $32.9K | 16,769 | 16,769 | +0 | No | +$398 | 07-16 09:19 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 27 | $30.4K | 15,682 | 15,682 | +0 | No | +$750 | 04-02 05:31 |
| will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 41 | $29.9K | 14,367 | 16,800 | -2,433 | No | -$239 | 02-06 15:32 |
| us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155 | 35 | $29.6K | 16,301 | 14,782 | +1,519 | No | +$548 | 01-23 18:44 |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | 50 | $28.6K | 17,944 | 14,397 | +3,547 | No | -$1,755 | 05-16 22:57 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 21 | $26.6K | 13,661 | 13,661 | +0 | Yes | +$469 | 03-17 10:32 |
| Starmer out by March 31, 2026? | 65 | $26.4K | 23,529 | 5,400 | +18,129 | No | +$1,932 | 03-25 10:04 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | 34 | $25.4K | 19,059 | 19,059 | +0 | Yes | -$2,261 | 05-08 18:27 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 27 | $25.1K | 12,935 | 12,935 | +0 | No | +$394 | 05-18 10:21 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | 49 | $25.0K | 18,379 | 18,379 | +0 | open | — | 10-08 16:54 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 10 | $24.3K | 13,170 | 13,170 | +0 | Yes | -$441 | 04-07 09:30 |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | 99 | $23.5K | 15,743 | 9,396 | +6,347 | No | +$1,010 | 04-22 10:28 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | 80 | $23.4K | 18,215 | 11,630 | +6,584 | open | — | 10-26 04:08 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? | 85 | $22.6K | 16,359 | 10,191 | +6,168 | No | -$120 | 09-29 20:22 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||