Realized P&L
-$562
Unrealized P&L
-$1.03K
Hit rate
38.2%
Resolved
365
Trades
8,150
lifetime
Volume
$55.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$11.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-07-04
last 10-29 17:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 70 days
Categories
Politics
52% 49% -$210
Other
36% 45% -$331
Sports
10% 52% -$20
Crypto
1% 40% -$1
Tech
1% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
61 active days in 12wk • peak 1386 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +13,667 $12,301 82¢ $11.3K -$1,026 10-25 15:01
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +78 $70 86¢ $67 -$3 10-13 13:24
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +28 $18 74¢ $21 +$3 10-17 06:34
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No +14 $19 98¢ $14 -$5 08-19 19:32
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +5 $5 97¢ $5 $0 07-31 16:53
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No +5 $5 96¢ $5 +$0 08-21 12:06
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 07-25 04:36
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No +5 $4 92¢ $5 +$0 07-20 00:15
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +4 $3 97¢ $4 +$1 09-14 14:36
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No +5 $4 70¢ $4 -$1 08-26 10:53
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +4 $2 97¢ $3 +$1 08-07 02:54
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +4 $3 98¢ $3 +$0 07-30 22:26
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? No +3 $3 99¢ $3 +$0 07-25 04:36
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +3 $3 96¢ $3 +$0 08-02 02:17
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? No +5 $4 58¢ $3 -$1 08-18 03:33
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +3 $2 96¢ $3 +$1 07-25 04:36
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +3 $2 96¢ $3 +$1 08-05 22:57
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +5 $2 42¢ $2 $0 08-22 03:47
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +4 $4 48¢ $2 -$2 08-16 21:41
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +2 $1 84¢ $2 +$0 08-15 20:33
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +2 $1 92¢ $2 +$0 08-17 02:01
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? No +5 $3 26¢ $1 -$1 08-24 10:11
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31 2026? No +1 $1 96¢ $1 +$0 08-01 10:12
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +3 $2 43¢ $1 -$1 09-14 14:35
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No +1 $0 96¢ $1 +$1 08-12 23:23
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +2 $2 48¢ $1 -$1 08-16 20:56
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +1 $1 48¢ $1 $0 08-17 13:21
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes +5 $1 9¢ $0 -$1 08-13 16:47
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +2 $0 16¢ $0 $0 08-17 16:18
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +20 $0 2¢ $0 +$0 08-18 09:36