Realized P&L
+$416
Unrealized P&L
+$998
Hit rate
85.3%
Resolved
11
Trades
39,243
lifetime
Volume
$2.89M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$74
Open exposure
$64.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 06:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
52% 0% $-12
Other
48% 78% +$428
Crypto
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
73 active days in 12wk • peak 2058 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +7,639 $6,412 86¢ $6.5K +$120 07-21 08:27
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +6,057 $5,362 90¢ $5.4K +$71 07-17 05:36
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes +5,708 $5,437 94¢ $5.4K $-66 07-20 20:24
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No -5,440 $-5,217 95¢ $-5170 +$47 07-19 21:49
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +5,169 $4,734 94¢ $4.9K +$135 07-21 05:10
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -4,998 $-4,486 90¢ $-4473 +$13 07-18 09:42
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -3,814 $-3,681 94¢ $-3586 +$96 07-19 16:44
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +3,530 $3,337 96¢ $3.4K +$38 07-17 12:50
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No -3,203 $-3,027 95¢ $-3050 $-22 07-17 17:51
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -2,237 $-2,119 96¢ $-2137 $-18 07-03 06:41
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -2,109 $-2,011 92¢ $-1930 +$81 07-08 17:26
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +1,877 $1,682 92¢ $1.7K +$54 07-19 06:40
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No -1,728 $-1,723 97¢ $-1673 +$50 07-20 12:55
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +1,909 $1,621 88¢ $1.7K +$49 07-18 11:49
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No -1,465 $-1,427 98¢ $-1432 $-5 07-21 05:12
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No -1,444 $-1,384 92¢ $-1336 +$49 07-20 16:33
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? No -1,367 $-1,320 96¢ $-1306 +$15 07-19 21:55
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No -1,272 $-1,165 88¢ $-1126 +$40 07-16 19:43
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No -1,088 $-1,005 90¢ $-984 +$20 07-16 23:47
Trump out as President before 2027? No +886 $716 92¢ $820 +$104 07-20 05:56
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +944 $741 85¢ $803 +$62 07-20 21:20
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? No -789 $-763 98¢ $-778 $-15 07-18 11:01
Will S.O.S. Romania (SOS) be included in the next Romanian government? No +760 $751 99¢ $749 $-2 07-12 13:37
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? No -725 $-691 97¢ $-701 $-10 07-17 17:38
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +761 $677 90¢ $681 +$5 07-20 09:11
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No +711 $655 96¢ $679 +$24 07-20 13:51
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? No -631 $-611 94¢ $-593 +$18 07-21 03:40
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? No +607 $569 97¢ $587 +$17 07-11 10:54
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026? No +579 $532 94¢ $541 +$10 07-21 07:38
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhao Leji in 2026? No +536 $488 95¢ $509 +$21 07-15 05:03