Realized P&L
+$58.0K
Unrealized P&L
+$6.44K
Hit rate
86.6%
Resolved
904
Trades
68,041
lifetime
Volume
$5.73M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$84
Open exposure
$95.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 16:48
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 146 days
Categories
Politics
57% 82% +$38,653
Other
41% 82% +$18,721
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Sports
0% 69% +$627
Crypto
0% 100% +$31
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 1056 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +9,533 $8,961 98¢ $9.3K +$334 10-28 11:11
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +9,065 $7,407 94¢ $8.6K +$1,159 10-28 15:04
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +7,503 $6,901 92¢ $6.9K +$36 10-27 01:27
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +6,230 $5,953 97¢ $6.0K +$62 10-11 23:15
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +6,110 $5,814 96¢ $5.9K +$70 10-28 02:42
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -5,749 -$5,676 96¢ $-5499 +$178 10-15 11:38
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -4,273 -$4,074 98¢ $-4189 -$115 10-09 21:33
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026? No +3,900 $3,343 94¢ $3.6K +$303 08-25 08:37
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? No +3,825 $3,354 94¢ $3.6K +$242 10-21 14:19
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No -3,010 -$3,004 98¢ $-2952 +$53 07-22 10:24
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? No -2,903 -$2,797 98¢ $-2841 -$44 09-02 20:46
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -2,911 -$3,276 94¢ $-2750 +$525 10-05 18:53
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +2,997 $2,712 92¢ $2.7K +$30 10-25 20:34
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No -2,717 -$2,950 96¢ $-2619 +$331 10-18 00:26
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No +3,000 $2,594 85¢ $2.6K -$40 10-22 09:55
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +2,654 $2,178 95¢ $2.5K +$336 10-28 16:40
will prabowo subianto cease to be president of indonesia by december 31 2026 No +2,422 $1,632 94¢ $2.3K +$655 10-22 18:37
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No +2,164 $1,857 94¢ $2.0K +$167 10-26 15:17
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +2,008 $1,236 98¢ $2.0K +$729 10-27 05:27
Trump out as President before 2027? No -2,045 -$2,024 95¢ $-1952 +$72 10-27 20:40
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? No +2,082 $1,890 92¢ $1.9K +$15 10-27 18:28
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -1,890 -$1,806 97¢ $-1842 -$36 07-22 02:54
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No -1,863 -$2,007 94¢ $-1760 +$246 09-30 21:48
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? No +1,651 $1,531 94¢ $1.6K +$28 10-18 19:44
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No -1,512 -$1,362 95¢ $-1442 -$81 06-05 05:48
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +2,499 $693 55¢ $1.4K +$669 10-28 16:08
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +1,682 $1,793 74¢ $1.2K -$556 10-26 01:30
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No +1,261 $1,104 94¢ $1.2K +$86 10-08 10:48
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No -1,180 -$1,862 96¢ $-1132 +$730 09-16 01:34
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +1,085 $833 100¢ $1.1K +$250 10-28 09:05