Fearful-Independence 0x819081…7bb247
whale 4W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$714
Unrealized P&L
+$5.37K
Hit rate
78.3%
Resolved
523
Trades
11,455
lifetime
Volume
$1.87M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$163
Open exposure
$155.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-29 11:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 135 days
Categories
Politics
66% 69% -$363
Other
34% 71% +$1,046
Crypto
1% 61% +$9
Sports
0% 100% +$22
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 182 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +29,019 $25,616 96¢ $27.9K +$2,241 09-30 05:59
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -16,500 -$16,924 98¢ $-16178 +$746 10-14 18:41
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes -14,859 -$14,621 99¢ $-14777 -$156 10-14 06:48
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +11,581 $10,251 94¢ $10.9K +$693 10-29 02:02
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +9,643 $8,854 98¢ $9.4K +$558 10-26 20:43
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No +8,899 $8,166 94¢ $8.4K +$243 10-19 09:04
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +8,600 $7,551 92¢ $8.0K +$403 10-25 20:34
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +8,000 $7,240 92¢ $7.4K +$160 10-28 00:24
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +7,293 $8,088 94¢ $6.9K -$1,197 10-28 11:21
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +6,400 $5,943 93¢ $5.9K -$8 10-27 01:27
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -6,003 -$5,612 96¢ $-5735 -$123 07-15 13:48
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +5,410 $4,963 94¢ $5.1K +$95 10-23 18:27
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +4,530 $3,960 98¢ $4.4K +$462 10-28 22:51
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +5,180 $4,205 82¢ $4.3K +$68 10-25 22:21
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +3,500 $3,298 98¢ $3.4K +$121 10-28 19:06
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No +3,025 $2,106 97¢ $2.9K +$822 10-28 14:10
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No +1,900 $1,561 90¢ $1.7K +$149 10-26 16:38
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes +1,634 $1,411 97¢ $1.6K +$176 10-28 13:40
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? Yes +1,249 $1,189 97¢ $1.2K +$28 10-29 04:05
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No +1,245 $1,183 97¢ $1.2K +$25 10-28 13:27
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No -1,199 -$1,035 93¢ $-1115 -$80 04-30 21:10
Trump out as President before 2027? No -1,000 -$868 96¢ $-962 -$94 10-14 18:46
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -970 -$988 96¢ $-933 +$55 10-23 11:16
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No -900 -$751 92¢ $-824 -$72 07-31 23:24
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No -728 -$699 97¢ $-707 -$8 07-13 19:35
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? No +710 $675 97¢ $692 +$17 10-26 16:13
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +710 $652 96¢ $678 +$26 10-28 20:44
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No +730 $618 84¢ $616 -$1 10-28 04:15
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? No +700 $596 86¢ $600 +$4 10-28 14:03
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +547 $518 97¢ $530 +$12 10-28 17:32