Fearful-Independence 0x819081…7bb247
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$13.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$629
Hit rate
32.4%
Resolved
16
Trades
5,767
lifetime
Volume
$902.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$156
Open exposure
$33.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 18:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
65% 70% $-13,915
Other
34% 67% +$162
Crypto
1% — —
Sports
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
80 active days in 12wk • peak 107 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes -7,103 $-6,794 96¢ $-6847 $-52 07-17 13:10
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +5,817 $4,901 92¢ $5.3K +$421 07-10 12:55
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -5,627 $-5,248 94¢ $-5289 $-41 07-15 13:48
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No -2,999 $-2,773 90¢ $-2714 +$58 07-18 14:27
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +2,469 $2,084 86¢ $2.1K +$27 07-20 22:22
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No +1,755 $1,447 90¢ $1.6K +$141 07-17 04:56
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,919 $1,520 72¢ $1.4K $-148 07-19 00:10
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -1,200 $-1,172 94¢ $-1134 +$38 06-30 14:48
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? No -932 $-871 97¢ $-901 $-30 07-07 11:13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No -1,000 $-714 82¢ $-825 $-111 06-09 23:55
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No -728 $-699 92¢ $-666 +$33 07-13 19:35
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No +645 $558 98¢ $629 +$71 06-28 08:46
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? No +531 $489 94¢ $501 +$12 07-21 22:02
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +550 $462 90¢ $493 +$31 07-17 05:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes -1,200 $-528 36¢ $-426 +$102 06-09 23:54
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No -408 $-383 92¢ $-377 +$5 07-20 20:33
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -400 $-315 88¢ $-350 $-35 06-21 14:35
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +377 $306 90¢ $338 +$32 07-20 18:13
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +231 $197 88¢ $204 +$7 07-18 08:10
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +195 $171 90¢ $175 +$4 07-21 14:41
Trump declares election interference national emergency? No -180 $-170 79¢ $-142 +$28 07-09 06:31
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No -152 $-132 86¢ $-131 +$1 07-01 02:09
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No -126 $-100 92¢ $-117 $-17 06-19 08:21
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No -130 $-102 82¢ $-106 $-4 06-25 01:44
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026? No +115 $90 91¢ $105 +$15 06-30 16:43
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No +107 $92 89¢ $95 +$3 07-20 19:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No +100 $85 92¢ $92 +$6 06-04 03:46
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No +100 $54 88¢ $88 +$34 07-19 09:04
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +105 $86 82¢ $86 +$0 07-08 23:52
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes +65 $56 82¢ $53 $-3 07-21 18:54