Fearful-Independence 0x819081…7bb247
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$13.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.03K
Hit rate
32.4%
Resolved
16
Trades
5,358
lifetime
Volume
$859.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$160
Open exposure
$59.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 18:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
66% 70% $-13,915
Other
33% 67% +$162
Crypto
1% — —
Sports
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 107 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -8,049 $-7,930 100¢ $-8041 $-111 06-05 16:35
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -6,920 $-6,827 100¢ $-6913 $-86 06-12 14:31
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +7,301 $6,252 86¢ $6.3K +$63 06-30 07:47
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -5,512 $-5,125 94¢ $-5154 $-29 06-30 16:25
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No -3,530 $-3,542 100¢ $-3526 +$15 06-05 07:35
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No -3,200 $-3,206 100¢ $-3197 +$9 06-25 17:22
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No -2,724 $-2,735 100¢ $-2713 +$22 06-24 17:42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No -2,687 $-2,739 100¢ $-2682 +$57 06-28 02:03
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes -2,458 $-2,316 94¢ $-2319 $-3 06-30 14:39
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No -2,200 $-2,286 100¢ $-2194 +$92 06-30 16:02
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +1,899 $1,597 86¢ $1.6K +$45 06-17 09:48
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No +1,557 $786 100¢ $1.6K +$769 06-30 18:07
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? No -1,512 $-1,521 100¢ $-1510 +$11 06-04 18:45
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? No -1,293 $-1,276 100¢ $-1291 $-15 06-25 08:46
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -1,200 $-1,172 92¢ $-1098 +$74 06-30 14:48
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +1,164 $953 86¢ $1.0K +$54 06-20 14:17
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No -1,046 $-968 92¢ $-957 +$11 06-30 21:21
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes -837 $-829 100¢ $-836 $-7 06-11 17:51
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? No -835 $-826 100¢ $-833 $-7 06-17 17:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No -1,000 $-714 75¢ $-750 $-36 06-09 23:55
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No +728 $662 99¢ $723 +$61 06-28 05:13
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No -660 $-653 100¢ $-660 $-6 06-08 13:22
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No +645 $558 96¢ $618 +$60 06-28 08:46
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? No -588 $-583 100¢ $-588 $-5 06-07 06:21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes -1,200 $-528 44¢ $-528 +$0 06-09 23:54
Kurds declare independence from Iran? No -429 $-426 100¢ $-427 $-1 06-29 07:47
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? No -402 $-399 100¢ $-402 $-3 06-03 16:41
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -400 $-315 84¢ $-334 $-19 06-21 14:35
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? No -200 $-204 100¢ $-200 +$5 06-17 04:58
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No +200 $171 90¢ $179 +$8 06-27 10:05