Fearful-Independence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13.8K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

32.4%

Resolved

Trades

6,080

lifetime

Volume

$933.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$153

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 16:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Politics

64% 70% $-13,915

Other

35% 67% +$162

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 107 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump out as president by march 31	135	$54.5K	20,084	35,869	-15,785	open	—	03-25 14:47
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	128	$47.3K	22,758	26,178	-3,421	open	—	03-19 00:46
will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	123	$39.8K	18,922	22,141	-3,219	open	—	03-03 07:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	90	$25.7K	23,444	12,630	+10,813	Yes	$-13,635	05-08 19:29
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	92	$24.2K	20,757	6,988	+13,769	open	—	08-06 19:48
will the us invade iran by march 31	46	$24.0K	14,477	14,000	+477	open	—	03-28 23:00
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	96	$19.5K	10,798	9,855	+942	open	—	02-28 16:41
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	57	$19.5K	8,128	12,854	-4,725	open	—	03-27 02:33
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	120	$18.7K	19,084	2,397	+16,687	open	—	07-20 04:40
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	106	$18.2K	1,406	17,563	-16,157	open	—	08-06 07:24
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	67	$17.6K	9,623	9,290	+333	open	—	03-31 09:19
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	140	$15.3K	8,175	7,400	+775	open	—	02-07 20:56
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	53	$14.9K	4,927	10,419	-5,492	open	—	05-06 08:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	45	$13.7K	6,870	7,447	-577	open	—	04-17 13:10
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?	17	$13.7K	4,920	9,210	-4,291	open	—	01-22 09:17
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	46	$13.5K	7,447	8,447	-1,000	open	—	01-22 20:15
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	38	$13.5K	6,287	7,487	-1,200	open	—	05-21 21:24
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	41	$13.3K	5,034	8,516	-3,482	open	—	04-17 10:13
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28 881	37	$12.6K	5,764	7,124	-1,360	open	—	03-01 10:00
will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	87	$11.9K	4,737	7,822	-3,084	open	—	04-12 20:18
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	51	$11.4K	5,155	6,918	-1,763	open	—	04-29 13:21
ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	51	$10.3K	4,260	6,263	-2,003	open	—	06-29 18:17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	59	$9.8K	13,283	8,035	+5,248	Yes	+$1,225	05-08 19:15
will zelenskyy talk to putin by january 31	49	$9.7K	4,362	5,526	-1,164	open	—	01-31 10:29
US strike on Cuba by January 31?	21	$9.5K	6,354	3,473	+2,881	open	—	01-14 07:07
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	75	$9.3K	5,277	6,810	-1,532	open	—	03-09 12:27
will a candidate win outright in the texas gop senate primary	69	$8.8K	4,500	5,675	-1,175	open	—	03-04 07:06
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	76	$8.6K	4,554	4,864	-310	open	—	03-28 17:23
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	18	$8.4K	4,240	4,240	+0	open	—	06-25 17:22
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	26	$8.2K	6,717	1,800	+4,917	open	—	02-08 15:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 16:59:21	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	SELL	143	99¢	$141	0x1552de…
08-10 16:58:39	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$11	0x2dc4c4…
08-10 16:58:19	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xf6049d…
08-10 16:58:15	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xdf4f09…
08-10 16:57:27	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd65a73…
08-10 16:57:19	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	SELL	346	99¢	$343	0x53fc34…
08-10 15:32:46	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x57e4b4…
08-10 15:32:13	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	1,021	83¢	$847	0x20517c…
08-10 14:07:09	will russia capture orikhiv by september 30 2026	No	BUY	34	92¢	$31	0x729931…
08-10 14:07:06	will russia capture orikhiv by september 30 2026	No	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0xacbc05…
08-10 14:02:49	will russia capture orikhiv by september 30 2026	No	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x78bb0a…
08-10 10:39:51	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	SELL	200	94¢	$189	0x95cca3…
08-10 02:22:57	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x63a697…
08-10 00:47:04	macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0xceba5f…
08-10 00:23:01	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	126	95¢	$120	0xd01a46…
08-09 22:54:04	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	74	95¢	$71	0x239995…
08-09 18:02:09	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x1ee2ab…
08-09 11:08:01	will afd win an absolute majority of seats in mecklenburg vorpommern 20260806103954025	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xa9db5c…
08-09 05:19:36	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x68b1b6…
08-09 05:03:45	macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	No	SELL	525	95¢	$500	0xb78ae5…
08-09 01:49:54	russia elections united russia wins every region	No	BUY	16	37¢	$6	0x47eab5…
08-08 21:50:12	russia elections united russia wins every region	No	BUY	4	37¢	$1	0xdfe776…
08-08 21:15:30	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x5399e7…
08-08 19:49:37	kazakhstan kurultai election adilet wins majority 20260728164335908	Yes	BUY	510	96¢	$489	0x13218b…
08-08 18:27:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0x654395…
08-08 14:07:52	will russia enter dobropillia by december 31	Yes	SELL	190	81¢	$154	0x8b6bee…
08-08 13:46:15	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xceeaae…
08-07 22:29:48	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	182	88¢	$161	0x3b0733…
08-07 20:57:18	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x41739f…
08-07 20:57:18	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x112913…
08-07 20:57:16	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x6d102c…
08-07 20:57:16	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x58a90c…
08-07 20:45:40	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x72df6b…
08-07 17:29:00	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xadc3bc…
08-07 17:05:18	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0xf76c31…
08-07 14:44:55	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	200	88¢	$176	0x7ac6f8…
08-07 14:31:28	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x87e466…
08-07 11:24:39	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x8fc2f1…
08-07 02:44:01	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	SELL	1,080	93¢	$1,007	0x6066b9…
08-06 23:05:06	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x5e8460…
08-06 19:48:05	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x37cbf7…
08-06 10:21:38	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	93¢	$12	0xc3cd9f…
08-06 07:24:26	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	9	96¢	$8	0x2858a5…
08-06 07:23:59	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0x6eda1f…
08-06 05:44:09	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	43	96¢	$41	0x6777bd…
08-06 05:27:35	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x2408a2…
08-06 02:57:00	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xef251d…
08-06 02:57:00	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x999346…
08-06 02:57:00	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5c8136…
08-06 02:57:00	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	104	96¢	$100	0x3365cf…
08-06 02:56:59	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x5e0759…
08-06 02:56:57	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xdd4b9d…
08-06 02:56:57	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xd78ae4…
08-06 02:56:56	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$189	0xe1143b…
08-06 02:56:56	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x67a2db…
08-05 22:38:44	Will C3.ai announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0x683561…
08-05 22:35:08	Will C3.ai announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0xb0fb20…
08-05 19:46:00	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0xf2ffb9…
08-05 15:47:30	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by august 31 2026	No	BUY	20	94¢	$18	0x7b4d83…
08-05 15:47:23	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by august 31 2026	No	BUY	10	94¢	$10	0x157e90…
08-05 11:46:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	92¢	$460	0x91b0fe…
08-05 10:59:50	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	887	96¢	$853	0x77d7cb…
08-05 08:00:08	macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	No	BUY	1,087	88¢	$957	0x7d53dd…
08-05 07:30:03	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	116	96¢	$112	0x8902f8…
08-05 06:31:59	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x2bd66b…
08-05 05:16:42	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0x9a6929…
08-05 04:46:20	will prabowo subianto cease to be president of indonesia by december 31 2026	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x3b9093…
08-04 23:40:20	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x63521a…
08-04 22:51:24	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0xe28ece…
08-04 20:48:14	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x2b42bb…
08-04 13:24:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x24029c…
08-04 13:22:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x64926c…
08-04 09:50:56	viktor orban arrested by december 31 20260708001041551	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xc058e9…
08-04 09:08:38	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	SELL	181	87¢	$157	0x853bc5…
08-04 08:13:42	will tido parties win a majority in the 2026 swedish parliamentary elections 20260603233725849	No	BUY	78	79¢	$61	0x647de3…
08-04 07:52:44	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	173	87¢	$150	0xfc0af6…
08-04 06:30:53	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	25	87¢	$22	0x5fa18c…
08-04 06:24:47	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x348d25…
08-04 06:07:47	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	92¢	$460	0x0e86eb…
08-04 04:18:47	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x76039b…
08-03 15:47:09	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	54¢	$10	0xabc887…
08-03 13:54:48	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	BUY	115	90¢	$103	0x392d90…
08-03 13:54:06	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	BUY	231	90¢	$207	0xf527ce…
08-03 12:20:23	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x821b57…
08-03 09:17:54	Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x6f7a72…
08-03 09:09:08	will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x2b6ade…
08-03 09:07:45	will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0x0e50d0…
08-03 08:17:17	Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	116	80¢	$92	0x187a76…
08-03 07:59:36	Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xcf3e98…
08-03 07:23:24	will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x029313…
08-03 00:58:53	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x2773a5…
08-03 00:58:06	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x0a4c62…
08-02 23:30:20	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x6cf88f…
08-02 23:29:45	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x83936e…
08-02 21:55:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0xe9b5f0…
08-02 21:54:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x7289ef…
08-02 20:51:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x30bdd4…
08-02 17:46:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	17	81¢	$14	0xd52472…
08-02 15:41:17	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x52079d…
08-02 15:21:50	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	79¢	$7	0xd0d7eb…