Fearful-Independence 0x819081…7bb247
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$13.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$482
Hit rate
32.4%
Resolved
16
Trades
4,655
lifetime
Volume
$756.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$163
Open exposure
$34.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 23:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
67% 70% $-13,915
Other
32% 67% +$162
Crypto
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 107 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -8,049 $-7,930 99¢ $-7989 $-58 06-05 16:35
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -6,920 $-6,824 99¢ $-6833 $-10 06-09 14:23
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No -3,530 $-3,542 99¢ $-3496 +$45 06-05 07:35
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No +2,660 $1,942 88¢ $2.3K +$399 06-04 13:00
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No -2,224 $-2,196 99¢ $-2200 $-3 06-07 11:02
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No +1,616 $1,483 94¢ $1.5K +$44 06-05 09:40
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? No -1,512 $-1,521 100¢ $-1507 +$14 06-04 18:45
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +1,200 $1,012 86¢ $1.0K +$26 06-03 20:47
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +1,220 $1,029 84¢ $1.0K +$2 06-10 03:51
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes -737 $-727 99¢ $-727 $-1 06-10 05:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No -1,000 $-714 72¢ $-725 $-11 06-09 23:55
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No -660 $-653 99¢ $-655 $-2 06-08 13:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No +650 $585 94¢ $608 +$23 06-05 19:55
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? No -588 $-583 99¢ $-585 $-2 06-07 06:21
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No +600 $526 92¢ $549 +$23 06-05 14:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes -1,200 $-528 46¢ $-546 $-18 06-09 23:54
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? No -402 $-399 99¢ $-399 $-1 06-03 16:41
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No +402 $354 94¢ $376 +$22 06-06 02:50
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? No -371 $-365 98¢ $-366 $-0 06-08 18:50
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes -254 $-241 95¢ $-241 +$0 06-09 23:49
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026? No -211 $-207 98¢ $-206 +$1 06-03 10:32
Trump declares election interference national emergency? No -160 $-128 92¢ $-147 $-19 06-07 07:20
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +145 $125 90¢ $130 +$5 06-03 05:28
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No +100 $97 98¢ $98 +$1 06-08 03:37
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? No +100 $88 95¢ $95 +$7 05-30 07:03
New pandemic in 2026? No +97 $84 88¢ $86 +$1 06-03 20:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No +100 $85 86¢ $86 +$0 06-04 03:46
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No -72 $-72 99¢ $-72 $-0 06-05 13:24
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes -100 $-57 70¢ $-70 $-13 05-28 15:56
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? No +64 $51 88¢ $57 +$5 05-28 09:28