0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402 — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16.1K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.6%

Resolved

Trades

18,327

lifetime

Volume

$6.70M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$365

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 08-11 11:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Politics

75% 100% +$13,369

Other

25% 56% +$2,760

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-43

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 529 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1,646	$525.8K	1,145,449	1,158,516	-13,067	open	—	05-31 22:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	462	$388.5K	320,586	164,165	+156,421	open	—	04-09 10:37
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	694	$336.1K	338,048	141,534	+196,513	open	—	04-07 23:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	790	$316.4K	710,747	661,221	+49,526	open	—	06-17 21:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	382	$263.3K	229,105	223,285	+5,820	open	—	04-28 10:26
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	413	$221.7K	143,084	143,084	+0	open	—	04-07 21:45
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	544	$221.4K	191,226	189,776	+1,450	open	—	03-25 20:15
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	584	$202.3K	966,936	956,883	+10,053	open	—	06-17 20:52
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	241	$175.8K	148,441	33,899	+114,542	open	—	03-01 20:44
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	317	$162.6K	127,068	127,068	+0	open	—	04-03 15:43
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	436	$160.5K	134,890	56,274	+78,617	open	—	04-17 16:02
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	88	$143.5K	99,202	76,811	+22,391	open	—	05-30 22:02
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	253	$117.3K	127,055	119,413	+7,642	open	—	04-29 12:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	529	$115.4K	193,704	203,186	-9,482	open	—	04-21 16:46
netanyahu out by march 31 854	60	$113.7K	63,500	54,500	+9,000	open	—	03-27 07:24
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	374	$113.4K	168,208	168,190	+18	open	—	03-29 15:47
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	86	$110.7K	79,860	80,520	-660	open	—	03-01 01:37
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	334	$108.0K	121,333	110,633	+10,701	open	—	04-07 12:39
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	207	$105.4K	160,366	160,366	+0	open	—	05-01 05:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	139	$100.4K	353,243	325,352	+27,891	open	—	05-26 18:29
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	512	$99.6K	200,798	160,562	+40,236	open	—	04-21 16:10
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	23	$99.6K	100,000	0	+100,000	open	—	03-10 21:11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	47	$98.8K	50,000	50,000	+0	open	—	04-24 19:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	116	$94.6K	85,553	73,703	+11,849	open	—	05-29 18:10
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	88	$79.8K	41,884	41,884	+0	open	—	03-09 18:34
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	152	$74.6K	57,047	52,431	+4,615	open	—	03-09 03:31
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	140	$68.1K	63,286	63,286	+0	open	—	04-07 17:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	33	$64.5K	74,015	39,956	+34,059	Yes	+$12,491	05-08 19:11
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	69	$59.4K	62,237	0	+62,237	Yes	+$2,883	04-26 15:38
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	34	$58.0K	45,848	45,848	+0	open	—	02-27 08:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 11:39:15	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	Yes	SELL	7,500	24¢	$1,800	0x28e626…
08-10 16:16:48	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0xe4c1f6…
08-10 16:16:40	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	6,860	28¢	$1,888	0x882d93…
08-10 16:02:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	22	43¢	$9	0x3a3a10…
08-10 16:00:06	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x933f87…
08-10 15:24:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	167	46¢	$77	0xc7dc72…
08-10 15:08:18	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	2,994	31¢	$928	0x72b3f0…
08-10 14:42:18	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	64	46¢	$29	0x479c38…
08-10 14:00:51	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	24	46¢	$11	0x873cb1…
08-10 14:00:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	11	46¢	$5	0xb90910…
08-10 13:43:34	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xf7aa8e…
08-10 13:42:46	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x25101c…
08-10 13:37:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	1,035	46¢	$476	0x572e4c…
08-10 13:10:06	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x68fcdf…
08-10 13:10:04	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	100	46¢	$46	0x73d4dc…
08-10 12:44:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	7	46¢	$3	0x7d19fc…
08-10 12:25:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	76	46¢	$35	0xe16f5d…
08-10 12:21:37	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	11	46¢	$5	0x57a2bf…
08-10 12:21:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	63	46¢	$29	0x1b13a4…
08-10 12:16:10	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x1723b7…
08-10 11:42:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	400	46¢	$184	0x301f74…
08-10 11:42:34	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0x1507fc…
08-10 10:38:01	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xfb7ad5…
08-10 10:21:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	9	46¢	$4	0xbd337d…
08-08 19:59:49	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	442	31¢	$137	0x05c8bb…
08-08 19:00:42	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	17	31¢	$5	0xdc9df1…
08-08 18:50:46	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	6,998	31¢	$2,169	0x814f0c…
08-08 17:12:45	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0x6fc9d0…
08-08 17:01:57	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xbcae1c…
08-08 17:00:30	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	35	31¢	$11	0xadf099…
08-07 12:53:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	185	43¢	$80	0x04a6eb…
08-07 12:39:10	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	43¢	$645	0x0e563f…
08-07 12:38:28	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1,446	43¢	$622	0x3f2140…
08-07 12:37:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	380	43¢	$164	0x4eb4e7…
08-07 12:36:04	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x9a9e23…
08-07 12:35:09	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	43	42¢	$18	0x61d53e…
08-07 12:35:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	21	42¢	$9	0x499ed9…
08-07 12:34:43	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xb5277c…
08-07 12:34:43	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x42d891…
08-07 12:34:39	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	0	42¢	$0	0xe5e78a…
08-07 12:34:39	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1	42¢	$0	0xa09932…
08-07 12:34:37	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	6,822	42¢	$2,865	0x83a45a…
08-07 12:34:37	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1,343	42¢	$564	0x5f3427…
08-06 12:21:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	258	81¢	$209	0xecb270…
08-06 11:56:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	353	85¢	$300	0x9be867…
08-06 11:56:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xcf8c0a…
08-06 11:48:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x5e9439…
08-06 11:48:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x595ca9…
08-06 11:42:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x3d5259…
08-06 11:24:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x2c876c…
08-06 11:13:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x1dac12…
08-06 11:06:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0xade860…
08-06 10:42:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	357	85¢	$304	0xf83c19…
08-06 10:07:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	108	85¢	$92	0x40ca0c…
08-06 09:57:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	11	85¢	$9	0x8683a6…
08-06 09:55:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	145	85¢	$123	0x5411db…
08-06 09:51:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xe56057…
08-06 09:38:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	47	85¢	$40	0x82ecdc…
08-06 09:37:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	22	85¢	$19	0xb1f5c5…
08-06 09:35:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	86	85¢	$73	0xcc9a07…
08-06 09:31:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0x3ab156…
08-06 09:29:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x6d73a5…
08-06 09:11:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0xf253fb…
08-06 08:49:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	90	85¢	$76	0x9736f4…
08-06 08:42:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x1ab09e…
08-06 08:42:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	35	85¢	$30	0xab8816…
08-06 08:39:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	232	85¢	$197	0x36f785…
08-06 08:39:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	3,034	85¢	$2,579	0x7a29b9…
08-05 19:41:36	will steve witkoff visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126051	No	BUY	139	24¢	$34	0xcbab39…
08-05 19:41:18	will steve witkoff visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126051	No	BUY	129	22¢	$28	0xb4b5a8…
08-05 13:41:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	5,000	83¢	$4,150	0xdd0fdd…
08-05 08:01:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	3,966	83¢	$3,292	0xd33587…
08-05 06:31:56	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	3,096	84¢	$2,601	0x993201…
08-04 20:57:12	will steve witkoff visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126051	No	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0xc97d45…
08-04 20:50:51	will steve witkoff visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126051	No	BUY	80	15¢	$12	0xab27c6…
08-04 12:43:14	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	122	84¢	$103	0x6e8516…
08-04 12:31:54	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	134	76¢	$102	0x2b900d…
08-04 12:19:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xf9d3d4…
08-04 12:16:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xf95c1d…
08-04 12:10:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x940ba9…
08-04 12:10:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,093	84¢	$918	0x084844…
08-04 12:08:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	17	84¢	$14	0x591b88…
08-04 12:07:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	217	84¢	$182	0x70e49b…
08-04 08:24:03	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	477	84¢	$401	0x5f39d9…
08-04 04:49:03	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x7a3e9a…
08-04 00:42:30	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	3	84¢	$2	0x5c15dd…
08-03 23:59:57	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	188	84¢	$158	0x5e53e8…
08-03 22:38:56	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0x0ed941…
08-03 21:19:17	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	374	77¢	$288	0x313007…
08-03 19:30:05	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	125	84¢	$105	0x70c817…
08-03 14:32:27	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xf0dc25…
08-03 14:28:48	will steve witkoff visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126051	No	BUY	235	15¢	$35	0x2d8636…
08-03 11:31:48	will steve witkoff visit ukraine by december 31 2026 20260729210126051	No	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xa272d6…
08-03 11:31:45	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x519a25…
08-03 10:40:51	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x338981…
08-03 09:09:51	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	240	77¢	$185	0x9e577a…
08-03 09:08:36	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x4f8e0c…
08-03 09:08:32	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0xe8a9a1…
08-03 09:08:26	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0x446ac6…
08-03 07:45:32	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0x8c6eb8…