0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402 — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16.1K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.64K

Hit rate

94.6%

Resolved

Trades

18,147

lifetime

Volume

$6.62M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$365

Open exposure

$20.3K

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 07-20 20:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Politics

75% 100% +$13,369

Other

24% 56% +$2,760

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-43

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 529 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No		+20,000	$17,200	92¢	$18.3K	+$1,100	07-01 16:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		-2,000	$-2,513	99¢	$-1977	+$536	06-28 14:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1,646	$525.8K	1,145,449	1,158,516	-13,067	open	—	05-31 22:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	462	$388.5K	320,586	164,165	+156,421	open	—	04-09 10:37
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	694	$336.1K	338,048	141,534	+196,513	open	—	04-07 23:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	790	$316.4K	710,747	661,221	+49,526	open	—	06-17 21:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	382	$263.3K	229,105	223,285	+5,820	open	—	04-28 10:26
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	413	$221.7K	143,084	143,084	+0	open	—	04-07 21:45
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	544	$221.4K	191,226	189,776	+1,450	open	—	03-25 20:15
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	584	$202.3K	966,936	956,883	+10,053	open	—	06-17 20:52
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	241	$175.8K	148,441	33,899	+114,542	open	—	03-01 20:44
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	317	$162.6K	127,068	127,068	+0	open	—	04-03 15:43
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	436	$160.5K	134,890	56,274	+78,617	open	—	04-17 16:02
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	88	$143.5K	99,202	76,811	+22,391	open	—	05-30 22:02
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	253	$117.3K	127,055	119,413	+7,642	open	—	04-29 12:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	529	$115.4K	193,704	203,186	-9,482	open	—	04-21 16:46
netanyahu out by march 31 854	60	$113.7K	63,500	54,500	+9,000	open	—	03-27 07:24
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	374	$113.4K	168,208	168,190	+18	open	—	03-29 15:47
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	86	$110.7K	79,860	80,520	-660	open	—	03-01 01:37
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	334	$108.0K	121,333	110,633	+10,701	open	—	04-07 12:39
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	207	$105.4K	160,366	160,366	+0	open	—	05-01 05:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	139	$100.4K	353,243	325,352	+27,891	open	—	05-26 18:29
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	512	$99.6K	200,798	160,562	+40,236	open	—	04-21 16:10
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	23	$99.6K	100,000	0	+100,000	open	—	03-10 21:11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	47	$98.8K	50,000	50,000	+0	open	—	04-24 19:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	116	$94.6K	85,553	73,703	+11,849	open	—	05-29 18:10
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	88	$79.8K	41,884	41,884	+0	open	—	03-09 18:34
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	152	$74.6K	57,047	52,431	+4,615	open	—	03-09 03:31
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	140	$68.1K	63,286	63,286	+0	open	—	04-07 17:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	33	$64.5K	74,015	39,956	+34,059	Yes	+$12,491	05-08 19:11
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	69	$59.4K	62,237	0	+62,237	Yes	+$2,883	04-26 15:38
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	34	$58.0K	45,848	45,848	+0	open	—	02-27 08:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 20:22:10	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	10,893	100¢	$10,839	0xe48ca8…
07-20 16:15:03	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	6,661	99¢	$6,621	0xbc7fee…
07-20 16:13:33	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1,603	99¢	$1,594	0xf869d9…
07-20 16:11:55	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$994	0xf20919…
07-20 16:11:25	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	750	99¢	$746	0x565900…
07-20 16:11:13	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x8efa24…
07-20 16:10:33	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0x70dab7…
07-20 16:10:19	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	7,930	99¢	$7,882	0x50e927…
07-20 16:10:12	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	47	99¢	$47	0xd90eaf…
07-20 16:10:03	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1,834	99¢	$1,823	0x5dcc59…
07-17 15:18:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	36	77¢	$28	0xbf5470…
07-17 15:04:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	11	77¢	$9	0x776c23…
07-17 15:01:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	52	77¢	$40	0x6d0b0a…
07-17 14:31:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0x5cc812…
07-17 14:05:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x5e49b6…
07-17 13:47:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	39	77¢	$30	0x757b40…
07-17 13:30:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x5749de…
07-17 13:30:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2,768	77¢	$2,131	0xbfa09e…
07-17 10:58:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0xa14fcb…
07-17 10:58:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0x5db94f…
07-17 10:58:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,936	77¢	$1,490	0x783a32…
07-16 20:33:05	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2,500	78¢	$1,950	0x7e4c0c…
07-16 16:06:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x352fc2…
07-16 15:59:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	40	41¢	$16	0x36ef1e…
07-16 15:56:05	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	41	41¢	$17	0xbb760d…
07-15 23:51:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,784	43¢	$767	0xdac8d4…
07-15 23:46:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	814	43¢	$350	0x9ea9d5…
07-15 23:22:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0x9f2862…
07-15 22:56:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0xb76e66…
07-15 22:37:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	14	43¢	$6	0x14dff2…
07-15 21:43:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	233	43¢	$100	0xd040fc…
07-15 21:23:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	7	43¢	$3	0x46a27a…
07-15 15:41:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	1,968	75¢	$1,476	0x659d36…
07-15 15:15:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	161	75¢	$121	0xdb5e1f…
07-15 14:28:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	61	75¢	$46	0x98ad7a…
07-15 13:42:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	34	43¢	$15	0x416b9a…
07-15 12:54:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	5,946	75¢	$4,459	0xf62f43…
07-15 12:18:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	852	43¢	$366	0x3ff389…
07-15 12:14:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	1,854	75¢	$1,390	0xade985…
07-15 12:11:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	86	75¢	$64	0x9cfd32…
07-15 11:40:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0xd74bcb…
07-15 11:39:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x9aacfe…
07-15 11:39:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	70	43¢	$30	0xf6e510…
07-15 11:32:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	8	43¢	$3	0x502fea…
07-15 11:17:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	606	43¢	$261	0xe9b963…
07-15 11:12:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	11	43¢	$5	0xed6547…
07-15 11:12:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	222	75¢	$166	0x67c3be…
07-15 11:11:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	7,676	43¢	$3,301	0xb54758…
07-15 10:48:08	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	1,188	75¢	$891	0x6964dc…
07-15 10:48:08	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	8,812	75¢	$6,588	0x0fe86d…
07-15 08:15:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	200	44¢	$88	0xa82f3c…
07-15 07:38:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0xa3e319…
07-15 07:25:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	11	44¢	$5	0x1d166d…
07-15 06:18:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,136	44¢	$500	0x1c7abc…
07-15 06:15:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x4c26cf…
07-15 04:35:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x6f41f7…
07-15 03:16:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	227	44¢	$100	0xb6b8ac…
07-15 03:14:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xb33d46…
07-15 02:45:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	9	44¢	$4	0x9f7a3d…
07-15 01:53:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	100	44¢	$44	0x2a94ce…
07-15 00:53:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	100	44¢	$44	0x925fc1…
07-15 00:52:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	273	44¢	$120	0xe6131b…
07-15 00:16:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0xe16164…
07-14 23:19:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x1adca9…
07-14 23:19:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xf660b6…
07-14 23:15:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0x6cb551…
07-14 22:56:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	300	74¢	$222	0xe90c3c…
07-14 22:10:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0xfdb2b7…
07-14 22:10:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x89be2e…
07-14 21:40:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	6	44¢	$2	0x6ffd2b…
07-14 21:02:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	11	44¢	$5	0x016002…
07-14 20:26:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	6	44¢	$2	0x2f8a5a…
07-14 20:21:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	28	44¢	$12	0x3ec5ee…
07-14 18:48:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0x150a61…
07-14 18:41:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x9d4adb…
07-14 17:58:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	500	44¢	$220	0xa0f5cc…
07-14 17:55:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	261	44¢	$115	0x307c22…
07-14 17:49:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0xc1f29d…
07-14 17:46:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	40	44¢	$18	0x8b49e2…
07-13 22:25:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	1,880	72¢	$1,354	0x274148…
07-13 22:00:41	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	406	70¢	$285	0x595b2d…
07-13 22:00:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	87	70¢	$61	0xc6628c…
07-13 21:13:16	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	77	70¢	$54	0x21529f…
07-13 21:05:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xa06701…
07-13 21:00:47	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	110	70¢	$77	0x4b59bc…
07-13 20:50:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x452aba…
07-13 20:50:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	8,000	70¢	$5,600	0x1cd535…
07-13 20:48:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0x4bcb71…
07-13 20:42:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	71	72¢	$51	0x35ee5c…
07-13 20:40:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	45	42¢	$19	0x6d72c8…
07-13 20:32:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	16	70¢	$11	0x0cb5bf…
07-13 20:25:58	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	1,100	70¢	$770	0x08451e…
07-13 20:24:25	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	96	70¢	$67	0xa6cce7…
07-13 20:22:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	15,000	43¢	$6,402	0xba9b2c…
07-13 20:22:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	8,048	72¢	$5,795	0xfb8ad5…
07-13 20:20:59	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	15,000	28¢	$4,178	0xb1eaca…
07-13 20:20:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	82	70¢	$57	0xc15eed…
07-13 19:30:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x73b36a…
07-13 15:34:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x045afe…
07-13 15:29:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe16893…