Sardonic-Archer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$193

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.5%

Resolved

Trades

1,239

lifetime

Volume

$169.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$136

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-13 23:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

50% 100% +$214

Politics

48% 100% +$3

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-410

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	30	$9.7K	9,300	1,300	+8,000	open	—	02-02 20:58
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	117	$6.2K	3,965	3,830	+135	open	—	01-26 12:34
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	12	$5.7K	4,800	1,000	+3,800	open	—	02-27 10:31
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	8	$5.0K	4,000	1,000	+3,000	open	—	01-04 22:45
will danish peoples party win the second most seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	10	$4.9K	2,901	2,000	+901	open	—	03-24 23:39
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	57	$4.6K	3,167	3,300	-133	open	—	03-16 20:07
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	11	$4.5K	4,599	0	+4,599	open	—	02-07 14:45
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	16	$3.6K	2,088	1,800	+288	open	—	01-27 18:14
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	17	$3.6K	3,437	1,500	+1,937	open	—	02-28 19:33
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	31	$3.3K	2,550	2,219	+331	open	—	02-27 20:00
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	24	$3.3K	2,739	1,300	+1,439	open	—	03-08 18:55
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	25	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	02-12 06:28
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	39	$3.0K	10,489	7,688	+2,801	open	—	01-07 16:50
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$3.0K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	04-06 07:15
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	17	$2.9K	2,784	600	+2,184	open	—	01-29 20:18
will seguro win all of portugals districts	25	$2.8K	2,296	500	+1,796	open	—	02-15 23:18
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	28	$2.7K	2,200	1,700	+500	open	—	01-29 19:14
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	16	$2.6K	1,800	1,000	+800	open	—	01-25 15:15
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	2	$2.5K	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	06-07 07:37
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	13	$2.3K	2,501	0	+2,501	open	—	02-27 18:10
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$2.1K	2,100	300	+1,800	open	—	05-28 15:14
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	11	$2.0K	1,000	1,200	-200	open	—	01-16 12:51
us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	8	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	07-11 08:24
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	03-07 09:04
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3	$1.9K	2,200	0	+2,200	open	—	06-17 18:46
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	5	$1.9K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	06-21 19:33
epstein blackmail evidence released by march 31	32	$1.8K	123	5,198	-5,075	open	—	01-17 09:25
Will the US strike Somalia next?	5	$1.7K	1,727	0	+1,727	open	—	01-13 22:03
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	17	$1.6K	1,800	934	+866	open	—	02-22 10:56
will a minecraft movie be the top grossing movie of 2025	2	$1.6K	0	1,611	-1,611	open	—	01-06 01:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 23:25:00	iran leadership change by october 31	No	BUY	88	89¢	$78	0x071039…
08-13 02:14:36	will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 55 or higher 20260723190836286	Yes	BUY	500	85¢	$423	0x18e0b1…
08-11 20:00:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	150	64¢	$96	0x5d930a…
08-10 16:06:42	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	No	BUY	150	57¢	$86	0x6956d2…
08-10 15:24:55	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	No	BUY	1	57¢	$1	0x848aaf…
08-10 14:36:37	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	No	BUY	116	57¢	$66	0x15cce8…
08-10 07:33:22	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	No	BUY	28	57¢	$16	0x348f76…
08-10 02:55:07	iran charges hormuz fees by september 30	No	BUY	400	71¢	$284	0x148049…
08-10 01:28:55	iran leadership change by october 31	No	BUY	62	89¢	$55	0xc1b9aa…
08-10 00:26:15	iran leadership change by october 31	No	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0x2e1362…
08-09 19:32:48	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	300	93¢	$279	0x983e9d…
08-09 19:31:55	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	400	93¢	$372	0x501f58…
08-09 19:28:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x89f82b…
08-09 19:25:34	iran leadership change by october 31	No	BUY	105	89¢	$93	0x42fd73…
08-09 19:23:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	450	100¢	$447	0xe28fb9…
08-09 17:12:54	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$6	0x504291…
08-09 17:02:27	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0x2fdce4…
08-09 15:21:36	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x21ffe8…
08-09 10:03:18	will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 65 or higher 20260723190836288	Yes	BUY	60	11¢	$7	0x04b629…
08-09 08:39:33	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xfe8144…
08-09 02:07:01	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x44bd50…
08-09 01:17:34	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x765974…
08-08 21:02:51	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x90c1b3…
08-08 20:52:48	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x76774c…
08-08 20:52:48	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x4a30fa…
08-08 20:33:48	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xde450e…
08-08 20:33:46	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x40a648…
08-08 20:11:27	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x11d547…
08-08 20:01:36	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xdc089f…
08-08 20:01:34	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x2da6ce…
08-08 19:42:21	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x9850d0…
08-08 19:42:18	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xdabc1f…
08-08 17:06:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	300	84¢	$252	0xcb73b8…
08-08 15:19:00	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0x489223…
08-08 14:59:09	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	1,200	98¢	$1,177	0x3f2f53…
08-08 14:48:31	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	400	90¢	$360	0x42ea96…
08-08 14:35:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	198	92¢	$182	0x5c7453…
08-08 14:34:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	202	92¢	$186	0xab2450…
08-08 14:23:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0x88f7e4…
08-07 23:23:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	224	92¢	$206	0x40326b…
08-07 23:23:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	17	92¢	$16	0x156dd7…
08-07 23:23:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	9	92¢	$8	0x10e6dc…
08-04 18:27:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	63¢	$315	0x941763…
07-31 10:13:42	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	SELL	180	3¢	$5	0x0386cd…
07-30 20:07:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	500	74¢	$370	0xa0c8f3…
07-30 16:09:29	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	200	80¢	$161	0xef7022…
07-30 14:30:32	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	200	69¢	$139	0xdf1137…
07-28 21:51:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	78¢	$780	0x8d6e01…
07-19 21:48:24	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x8b0f38…
07-19 21:12:18	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	88	92¢	$81	0x77e721…
07-19 21:04:55	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	600	92¢	$552	0x129342…
07-19 18:42:01	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0xa9207e…
07-19 14:58:31	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0x0e87d6…
07-19 12:07:07	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0x3540c5…
07-19 07:51:00	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	No	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0xcb49d0…
07-13 20:21:31	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	94¢	$283	0x9db717…
07-11 08:24:26	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	903	99¢	$891	0xb02107…
07-11 07:53:28	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	27	99¢	$26	0xfbc2e5…
07-11 07:39:55	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x673580…
07-10 13:25:10	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	400	98¢	$390	0x171633…
07-10 10:06:55	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	600	74¢	$441	0x6271d9…
07-10 08:53:52	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xd4904c…
07-10 08:53:52	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x089a2b…
07-10 07:41:23	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5e7721…
07-10 06:33:01	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	48	99¢	$47	0x80cc56…
07-09 20:25:08	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	France	BUY	636	79¢	$503	0x4daa6d…
07-09 20:25:05	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	France	BUY	90	79¢	$71	0x06d52c…
07-09 20:25:04	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	France	BUY	273	79¢	$216	0xaeff56…
07-09 19:44:49	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Conor McGregor	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x34ad26…
07-08 17:55:05	will graham platner drop out by july 8	No	SELL	75	85¢	$64	0xded8b0…
07-08 11:31:08	will graham platner drop out by july 10 281 658 971	Yes	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x212c02…
07-08 11:26:34	will graham platner drop out by july 8	No	BUY	264	85¢	$224	0x4a65bd…
07-08 11:22:34	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	85¢	$425	0x4b925c…
07-08 11:22:10	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0x90f531…
07-06 08:33:20	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	82	97¢	$80	0x73f548…
07-06 08:20:55	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0x99fc05…
07-06 07:50:04	Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	No	BUY	17	84¢	$15	0x9e3bbc…
07-06 07:49:20	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	400	89¢	$356	0x957f5f…
07-06 07:47:50	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x61f8c8…
07-06 07:47:43	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x72b032…
07-06 07:46:38	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x46a995…
07-04 13:24:22	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$989	0x2d54e4…
07-04 13:10:08	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x3105b5…
06-27 05:21:25	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	320	86¢	$275	0xd09d24…
06-26 22:17:07	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	250	86¢	$215	0x38ed1f…
06-26 22:15:32	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	71	86¢	$61	0x5a20d7…
06-26 21:52:40	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x9547a0…
06-25 19:07:49	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xa03e61…
06-25 11:15:41	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	194	83¢	$161	0x1110ba…
06-24 10:27:07	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xa7dbad…
06-24 08:06:43	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xf24a7d…
06-24 08:06:11	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	SELL	75	43¢	$32	0x822967…
06-24 03:54:56	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	300	83¢	$249	0x95bf5d…
06-22 09:44:37	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	No	BUY	600	91¢	$546	0x5255e0…
06-21 20:16:07	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	96¢	$955	0x3640ec…
06-21 20:05:23	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	14¢	$28	0xa70ed7…
06-21 19:33:35	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	98¢	$491	0x056c0f…
06-18 12:54:38	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	199	93¢	$185	0xff755d…
06-18 12:48:14	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x3a71f5…
06-18 12:44:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x3ea764…