Realized P&L
+$3
Unrealized P&L
+$27
Hit rate
94.1%
Resolved
84
Trades
902
lifetime
Volume
$7.94K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$629
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-24
last 10-27 01:28
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 39 days
Categories
Politics
53% 76% +$10
Other
43% 76% -$8
Crypto
2% 100% +$0
Sports
1% 100% +$1
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
68 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +84 $77 97¢ $81 +$4 10-17 15:34
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +85 $73 94¢ $79 +$6 10-26 22:26
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +62 $60 97¢ $60 +$1 10-16 03:02
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No +53 $47 90¢ $47 +$0 07-15 07:03
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +39 $32 95¢ $37 +$5 10-27 01:28
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +35 $29 94¢ $33 +$4 09-20 16:20
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? No +34 $30 95¢ $32 +$2 09-30 12:18
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +26 $24 92¢ $24 +$0 10-27 01:27
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +26 $22 91¢ $24 +$2 09-03 14:52
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +23 $22 96¢ $22 +$0 07-20 16:33
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +17 $15 96¢ $16 +$1 10-26 21:27
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +14 $13 97¢ $13 +$0 10-21 03:58
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +18 $12 74¢ $13 +$1 10-26 22:01
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +13 $13 100¢ $13 +$0 07-29 13:48
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No +15 $13 86¢ $13 $0 10-21 02:39
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +21 $15 56¢ $12 -$2 09-07 15:33
Will Israel election happen as scheduled? Yes +11 $10 99¢ $11 +$0 10-25 18:29
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No +13 $10 82¢ $11 +$0 10-26 21:00
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +11 $10 95¢ $10 +$0 10-08 02:38
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +11 $10 87¢ $10 -$1 08-19 23:13
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No +13 $10 72¢ $9 -$1 10-25 20:36
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? No +9 $8 96¢ $9 +$0 06-28 07:25
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +9 $9 95¢ $9 $0 10-14 10:19
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +9 $8 92¢ $8 $0 10-25 20:34
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? No +7 $6 94¢ $7 +$0 07-27 10:13
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No +7 $6 94¢ $7 +$0 09-04 19:01
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No +5 $3 99¢ $5 +$2 07-22 00:36
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No +5 $4 96¢ $5 +$0 07-06 05:10
will saudi arabia recognize israel by december 31 No +5 $4 95¢ $5 +$0 07-22 01:01
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? No +4 $4 100¢ $4 +$0 09-21 01:41