Realized P&L
+$333
Unrealized P&L
+$79
Hit rate
100.0%
Resolved
2
Trades
2,050
lifetime
Volume
$309.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$151
Open exposure
$4.43K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 18:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 1 day
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Politics
60% 100% +$307
Other
38% 100% +$27
Tech
1%
Sports
0%
Crypto
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
51 active days in 12wk • peak 84 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No +3,642 $1,858 72¢ $2.6K +$783 06-02 16:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +553 $271 82¢ $456 +$185 05-28 14:20
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No +135 $96 94¢ $126 +$30 06-07 23:52
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No +200 $130 62¢ $124 $-6 06-09 16:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +518 $259 18¢ $91 $-168 05-28 14:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +100 $90 90¢ $90 +$0 06-09 17:52
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes +100 $74 77¢ $77 +$3 06-08 21:18
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes +1,110 $813 $72 $-742 06-07 23:46
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +126 $51 55¢ $69 +$18 06-05 12:52
Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government? No +76 $60 82¢ $63 +$3 06-04 15:12
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? No +50 $46 93¢ $47 +$1 06-09 11:07
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No +50 $46 91¢ $46 $-1 06-09 14:46
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? No +104 $39 43¢ $45 +$7 06-05 20:38
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +50 $46 88¢ $44 $-2 06-08 16:31
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes +155 $47 29¢ $44 $-2 06-09 10:10
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No +50 $42 84¢ $42 $-0 06-09 09:47
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +50 $41 80¢ $40 $-1 06-08 21:47
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes +100 $45 38¢ $38 $-7 06-04 20:27
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $41 38¢ $38 $-4 06-05 09:34
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +50 $37 72¢ $36 $-1 06-08 21:18
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No +50 $32 68¢ $34 +$2 06-08 15:23
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +100 $51 29¢ $29 $-23 06-08 13:41
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Yes +50 $29 56¢ $28 $-1 06-08 21:13
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes +80 $22 26¢ $21 $-1 06-08 21:04
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes +50 $18 36¢ $18 +$0 06-09 17:23
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? Yes +50 $6 34¢ $17 +$11 06-08 10:15
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes +50 $18 32¢ $16 $-2 06-08 05:47
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +50 $15 29¢ $14 $-1 06-08 11:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +50 $16 29¢ $14 $-2 06-09 15:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +50 $12 24¢ $12 $-0 06-09 17:52