Mean-Yam — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$27.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$6.51K

Hit rate

97.9%

Resolved

Trades

2,175

lifetime

Volume

$2.07M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$952

Open exposure

$29.1K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 17:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Other

61% 68% +$23,453

Politics

33% 91% +$3,675

Sports

3% 100% +$90

Crypto

3% 50% +$313

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+24,000	$22,610	94¢	$22.6K	-$50	10-26 17:12
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+3,000	$2,740	92¢	$2.7K	+$5	10-09 00:53
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+2,000	$1,840	92¢	$1.8K	-$10	10-06 08:07
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+2,000	$1,540	46¢	$930	-$610	09-16 00:32
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+1,200	$4,013	64¢	$774	-$3,239	10-22 07:58
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	+3,100	$2,822	7¢	$217	-$2,605	07-31 17:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	194	$242.8K	129,000	129,000	+0	No	+$1,527	07-06 02:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	175	$145.0K	68,085	79,300	-11,214	No	+$1,113	05-18 00:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	88	$110.8K	62,754	50,000	+12,754	No	+$1,815	07-30 09:28
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	153	$99.5K	57,404	45,258	+12,145	Yes	+$550	03-04 16:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	69	$89.0K	42,551	49,594	-7,042	No	+$2,818	06-01 16:25
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	32	$85.2K	43,203	43,203	+0	Yes	+$1,130	06-17 11:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	16	$73.8K	37,000	37,000	+0	Yes	+$83	04-08 04:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	164	$66.1K	68,000	0	+68,000	Yes	+$1,909	04-29 13:46
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	44	$62.3K	65,000	0	+65,000	Yes	+$2,656	01-26 21:37
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	12	$59.9K	60,000	0	+60,000	Yes	+$60	07-09 08:23
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	27	$58.9K	40,000	20,000	+20,000	No	+$1,040	08-14 05:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	88	$57.7K	26,000	34,000	-8,000	No	+$2,132	06-15 12:47
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	18	$56.4K	47,500	10,000	+37,500	No	+$264	04-13 11:29
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	14	$39.7K	40,000	0	+40,000	No	+$330	06-02 10:43
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	4	$38.8K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	+$1,190	07-04 15:19
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	15	$36.9K	37,000	0	+37,000	Yes	+$136	04-08 15:21
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	19	$35.9K	18,000	18,000	+0	No	+$54	04-03 02:22
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	4	$32.9K	28,000	5,000	+23,000	No	+$87	01-03 18:27
will donk be said during the pgl bucharest 2026 grand final	19	$26.9K	27,317	0	+27,317	No	+$438	04-15 10:09
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	21	$25.4K	13,100	13,100	+0	Yes	+$764	05-09 08:29
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	3	$24.8K	25,000	0	+25,000	No	+$175	01-03 17:30
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	69	$23.9K	17,200	16,000	+1,200	open	—	10-22 07:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	18	$23.8K	26,000	2,000	+24,000	open	—	10-26 17:12
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	14	$22.9K	22,982	0	+22,982	No	+$116	04-03 03:23
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	16	$22.0K	22,000	0	+22,000	Yes	+$44	04-19 13:55
will olivia rodrigo release an album in 2025	34	$21.4K	11,000	11,000	+0	No	-$184	01-02 03:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	54	$20.9K	21,148	0	+21,148	No	+$280	05-13 11:30
will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january	33	$19.9K	20,229	0	+20,229	Yes	+$286	01-29 23:58
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$19.9K	20,000	0	+20,000	Yes	+$140	01-31 13:17
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	39	$18.9K	10,140	10,140	+0	No	+$755	07-18 16:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 17:12:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,000	92¢	$3,680	0x93b2c8…
10-23 12:22:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x4204b1…
10-23 12:22:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	88	91¢	$80	0x7383e9…
10-23 12:22:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	133	91¢	$121	0x6310f7…
10-23 12:22:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0x3323fd…
10-23 12:22:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	396	91¢	$360	0x2a4b13…
10-23 12:21:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	91¢	$15	0x3e9d6b…
10-23 12:20:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x93d374…
10-23 12:16:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	91¢	$228	0xccf1f8…
10-23 12:16:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	550	91¢	$500	0xb7b60c…
10-23 12:16:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x985321…
10-23 12:16:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,400	91¢	$1,274	0x8cc116…
10-23 12:16:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	450	91¢	$410	0x504809…
10-23 12:16:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,056	91¢	$961	0x37927d…
10-23 12:14:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	92¢	$4,600	0xf17f57…
10-23 12:13:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	93¢	$9,300	0x07abb5…
10-22 07:58:24	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	16,000	62¢	$9,920	0x4af759…
10-19 23:17:18	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xa530cd…
10-19 21:08:36	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x8ded37…
10-09 00:53:45	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0x387dae…
10-08 03:49:35	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0xbaa647…
10-07 03:48:57	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2,000	92¢	$1,840	0xbb9324…
10-06 08:07:39	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	2,000	92¢	$1,840	0x9401db…
10-04 10:30:11	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	1,985	76¢	$1,509	0x47f295…
10-04 10:18:16	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xd3b338…
10-04 10:18:04	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	653	77¢	$503	0xf81f75…
10-04 10:18:04	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$7	0xd5e921…
10-04 10:18:04	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	91	77¢	$70	0x27752e…
10-04 09:37:32	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	196	77¢	$151	0xc5b35d…
10-04 09:37:29	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	60	77¢	$46	0xc948f7…
10-04 04:03:47	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x9e5e97…
10-04 04:03:47	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	45	78¢	$35	0x715a91…
10-04 04:03:47	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	401	78¢	$313	0x2ba064…
10-04 04:03:46	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	498	78¢	$388	0xef44f8…
10-04 04:03:46	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	400	78¢	$312	0x06fcf9…
10-04 04:01:17	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	431	78¢	$336	0x6fc7ad…
10-04 04:01:17	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x5bd82c…
10-04 01:10:28	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	400	79¢	$316	0xb63ccb…
10-04 01:10:28	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	40	79¢	$32	0xa7c3e6…
10-04 01:10:28	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	870	79¢	$688	0x9d30f4…
10-04 01:10:28	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	90	79¢	$71	0x5dd792…
10-04 01:10:28	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	40	79¢	$32	0x00e1b8…
10-03 22:41:47	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x162e1c…
10-03 13:49:23	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0x86131d…
10-03 13:20:42	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xb4e4ab…
10-03 12:55:45	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	41	79¢	$32	0xa24582…
10-03 12:55:45	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	228	79¢	$180	0x8e48f9…
10-03 12:55:45	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	871	79¢	$688	0x7afb45…
09-30 16:04:36	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	128	80¢	$102	0x47f293…
09-30 16:04:36	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	842	80¢	$673	0x369107…
09-30 16:04:35	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	31	80¢	$25	0x9b56ab…
09-25 03:29:32	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	120	78¢	$94	0x9bd589…
09-25 03:00:59	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	55	78¢	$43	0xb9a07f…
09-24 10:49:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,000	30¢	$600	0xa05a2a…
09-22 14:27:39	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	330	79¢	$261	0xd7b1a9…
09-22 12:35:31	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	82	79¢	$65	0xe8743f…
09-22 12:35:31	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x81b605…
09-22 12:26:52	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	40	79¢	$31	0xd1456f…
09-22 12:26:52	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	492	79¢	$389	0x8d1458…
09-22 12:26:52	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	23	79¢	$18	0x49c51b…
09-22 05:14:49	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xf425cf…
09-22 05:14:49	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0x46803e…
09-22 05:14:49	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x2fe54d…
09-22 01:50:44	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	769	81¢	$623	0x57f740…
09-21 16:08:07	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	59	81¢	$48	0x8f388d…
09-21 15:10:33	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	70	81¢	$56	0xf5e350…
09-21 15:10:33	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xef40ad…
09-21 15:10:33	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	80	81¢	$65	0x8bd22f…
09-21 15:09:28	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	13	81¢	$10	0xeca852…
09-21 15:09:25	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	2,000	81¢	$1,620	0xd9f997…
09-21 15:09:25	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	32	82¢	$26	0x555fe4…
09-21 15:03:37	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xd086d2…
09-21 15:03:37	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	300	82¢	$246	0xaeceaa…
09-21 15:03:36	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x527f1a…
09-21 15:01:55	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	128	82¢	$105	0x1613a0…
09-21 11:31:44	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	195	83¢	$162	0x43a4f1…
09-21 11:31:44	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	58	83¢	$48	0x0cf385…
09-21 11:31:42	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0x1c69b4…
09-21 09:17:12	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x95863f…
09-21 09:17:11	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x3a465a…
09-21 08:35:12	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	167	83¢	$139	0x4fdad5…
09-20 05:48:15	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0xf45e3f…
09-19 08:45:36	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0xc2ff6e…
09-18 08:57:28	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x709ade…
09-17 10:20:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	54¢	$1,080	0xf82b39…
09-16 00:32:45	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	240	77¢	$185	0xa740c6…
09-15 10:13:24	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x041157…
09-15 08:38:48	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0xd9a021…
09-15 06:33:45	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	1,710	77¢	$1,316	0x8b2131…
09-13 07:40:16	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xca960b…
09-12 16:09:33	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	1,524	90¢	$1,371	0xcae19a…
09-12 16:07:46	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	140	90¢	$126	0x1fdee0…
09-12 16:07:42	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x71bf76…
09-12 16:07:40	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	160	90¢	$144	0xfa0b0c…
09-12 16:07:31	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	800	90¢	$720	0xc149b0…
09-12 16:07:31	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x9657ca…
09-12 16:05:25	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	240	90¢	$216	0x70d1f6…
09-12 16:05:24	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	76	90¢	$69	0x0134ae…
09-03 00:47:40	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	234	85¢	$199	0xd71313…
09-02 23:53:30	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	34	85¢	$29	0xfffc9b…