Mean-Yam — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$994

Unrealized P&L

+$794

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,373

lifetime

Volume

$1.25M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$914

Open exposure

$9.95K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 09:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

55% 100% +$994

Politics

40% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 159 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+10,990	$9,153	90¢	$9.9K	+$794	06-08 10:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	175	$145.0K	68,085	79,300	-11,214	open	—	05-18 00:56
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	153	$99.5K	57,404	45,258	+12,145	open	—	03-04 16:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	69	$89.0K	42,551	49,594	-7,042	open	—	06-01 16:25
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	16	$73.8K	37,000	37,000	+0	open	—	04-08 04:04
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	44	$62.3K	65,000	0	+65,000	open	—	01-26 21:37
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	159	$58.1K	60,000	0	+60,000	open	—	04-27 17:43
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	18	$56.4K	47,500	10,000	+37,500	open	—	04-13 11:29
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	14	$39.7K	40,000	0	+40,000	open	—	06-02 10:43
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	15	$36.9K	37,000	0	+37,000	open	—	04-08 15:21
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	19	$35.9K	18,000	18,000	+0	open	—	04-03 02:22
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	4	$32.9K	28,000	5,000	+23,000	open	—	01-03 18:27
will donk be said during the pgl bucharest 2026 grand final	19	$26.9K	27,317	0	+27,317	open	—	04-15 10:09
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	3	$24.8K	25,000	0	+25,000	open	—	01-03 17:30
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	39	$23.8K	26,000	0	+26,000	open	—	06-09 09:03
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	14	$22.9K	22,982	0	+22,982	open	—	04-03 03:23
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	16	$22.0K	22,000	0	+22,000	open	—	04-19 13:55
will olivia rodrigo release an album in 2025	34	$21.4K	11,000	11,000	+0	open	—	01-02 03:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	54	$20.9K	21,148	0	+21,148	open	—	05-13 11:30
will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january	33	$19.9K	20,229	0	+20,229	open	—	01-29 23:58
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$19.9K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	01-31 13:17
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	22	$18.8K	19,153	0	+19,153	open	—	02-02 16:01
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	2	$16.5K	0	16,500	-16,500	open	—	01-01 00:56
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$16.0K	6,176	10,000	-3,824	open	—	05-21 13:48
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	12	$15.1K	15,149	0	+15,149	open	—	01-31 13:27
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	8	$14.9K	15,000	0	+15,000	open	—	04-22 16:35
us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	6	$14.9K	15,000	0	+15,000	open	—	01-03 13:54
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	10	$14.9K	15,073	0	+15,073	Yes	+$166	05-02 11:42
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	17	$13.9K	14,656	0	+14,656	open	—	05-16 05:46
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	17	$13.3K	13,500	0	+13,500	open	—	03-24 03:32
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	18	$12.3K	13,100	0	+13,100	Yes	+$803	04-21 14:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 09:03:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1,020	99¢	$1,007	0xd9dede…
06-09 08:13:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	359	99¢	$355	0xd2fa57…
06-09 08:11:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	621	99¢	$613	0xe00745…
06-09 02:54:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xa8a49d…
06-09 02:53:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xf668eb…
06-09 02:49:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x487a00…
06-09 02:49:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1,179	99¢	$1,165	0x84b889…
06-09 02:31:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	47	99¢	$46	0xedd9ed…
06-09 02:31:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	64	99¢	$63	0xcd1110…
06-09 02:31:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x81b9f4…
06-09 02:31:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x4cd723…
06-09 02:07:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	47	99¢	$46	0xa7eb84…
06-09 02:02:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	69	99¢	$68	0xfd9aab…
06-09 02:02:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	88	99¢	$87	0xd889b7…
06-09 02:02:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0x85c882…
06-09 02:02:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	87	99¢	$86	0x603556…
06-09 02:02:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0x3f6f13…
06-08 10:34:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0x3caee7…
06-08 10:34:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,000	90¢	$1,800	0x001d1d…
06-08 08:25:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0xd05fd0…
06-07 19:51:33	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,980	0x552f1b…
06-05 19:41:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,000	82¢	$1,640	0x3b733c…
06-02 11:58:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	852	78¢	$665	0x955fd3…
06-02 11:57:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0x4e608c…
06-02 11:56:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	400	78¢	$312	0xec3566…
06-02 11:21:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xc77478…
06-02 11:19:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x5ca307…
06-02 11:15:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x04aeeb…
06-02 10:44:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	31	78¢	$24	0x91d961…
06-02 10:44:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	180	78¢	$140	0xf1ee21…
06-02 10:43:41	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,945	0x095eaa…
06-02 10:29:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x98f95e…
06-02 10:26:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	24	78¢	$19	0xfdd523…
06-02 10:21:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	300	78¢	$234	0x94bc87…
06-02 10:02:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	273	78¢	$213	0xf8eaa1…
06-02 09:54:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	55	78¢	$43	0x9864de…
06-02 09:47:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0x73ea8b…
06-02 09:34:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xd41141…
06-02 09:06:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x92b9e7…
06-02 09:05:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	0	78¢	$0	0x01dd36…
06-02 08:52:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	139	78¢	$108	0x3a853e…
06-02 08:52:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	0	78¢	$0	0x85afb5…
06-02 07:50:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	91	78¢	$71	0xb9f276…
06-02 07:46:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	473	78¢	$369	0xd5ceff…
06-02 06:58:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	5,000	96¢	$4,800	0x5f1d85…
06-02 06:48:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	99¢	$9,910	0xbbf735…
06-02 06:30:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	99¢	$9,920	0x0147a2…
06-02 06:10:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	949	99¢	$942	0x70ecba…
06-02 06:10:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x30afd2…
06-02 06:09:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,314	99¢	$2,298	0x99c534…
06-02 06:09:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,039	99¢	$1,031	0xc9288c…
06-02 06:09:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x13fbae…
06-02 06:09:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	357	99¢	$355	0x1fc5a6…
06-02 06:08:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0xeed74c…
06-02 06:08:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,081	99¢	$4,053	0x72a53d…
06-02 06:08:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	873	99¢	$867	0x8ee0db…
06-02 04:23:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,000	79¢	$1,580	0x8a249d…
06-01 23:43:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,508	99¢	$3,483	0x134c24…
06-01 23:42:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,492	99¢	$1,482	0x2be452…
06-01 16:25:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	24,594	100¢	$24,569	0xa832ab…
05-29 14:56:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	1,000	85¢	$850	0x33f781…
05-28 14:35:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	574	87¢	$499	0xcaa91f…
05-28 14:34:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	231	87¢	$201	0xacc601…
05-28 14:33:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	615	87¢	$535	0xdddfcf…
05-28 14:33:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	90	87¢	$79	0x85a749…
05-28 14:33:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	1,154	87¢	$1,004	0xb7dab5…
05-28 14:28:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x665a48…
05-28 14:27:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x61c40f…
05-28 14:27:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	102	87¢	$88	0x4f3b93…
05-28 14:27:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x2146a4…
05-28 14:25:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$9	0xa03291…
05-28 14:24:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x63a8d4…
05-28 14:24:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	77	87¢	$67	0x42c7fa…
05-28 14:23:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	72	87¢	$63	0x147644…
05-28 14:19:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	417	88¢	$367	0x87af83…
05-28 14:17:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	810	88¢	$713	0x1e131a…
05-28 14:17:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	25	88¢	$22	0x0d4e66…
05-28 14:16:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	3,748	88¢	$3,298	0x6d0db8…
05-28 14:15:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	3,000	89¢	$2,670	0xe82caf…
05-28 14:14:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	3,000	90¢	$2,700	0x1578a5…
05-28 14:13:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	2,000	91¢	$1,820	0xbc2b9d…
05-28 03:52:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	3,592	99¢	$3,570	0x58074d…
05-28 03:48:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$1	0xa30c92…
05-28 03:47:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	4,000	99¢	$3,976	0x39db2c…
05-28 03:47:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$1	0xe538d9…
05-28 03:20:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	6,572	99¢	$6,532	0x5035c5…
05-28 03:14:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	623	99¢	$620	0xbf92ec…
05-28 03:02:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	4,732	99¢	$4,703	0x1cb131…
05-28 03:01:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	474	99¢	$471	0x13467d…
05-28 03:01:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x527cb3…
05-28 02:59:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2f4fa3…
05-28 02:56:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xdba0d8…
05-28 02:27:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	5,000	99¢	$4,965	0x3fde35…
05-24 22:08:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	473	20¢	$94	0x70535a…
05-24 20:23:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	452	20¢	$90	0xd43612…
05-23 18:35:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0x721d48…
05-23 17:56:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x77a71d…
05-23 17:25:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	164	91¢	$149	0x0a7315…
05-23 16:32:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	336	91¢	$305	0x00af2b…
05-23 16:25:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	500	25¢	$125	0x0de6dd…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	74	$37.3M	28,704	06-10 00:29
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	62	$52.1K	4,806	06-03 21:51
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	61	$15.1K	2,020	06-05 00:43
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	59	$267.5K	21,010	06-01 01:54
Tough-Mask 0xad52…11ac	59	$130.3K	1,595	06-02 20:48
Naive-Waterwheel 0x10b2…4ceb	59	$38.1K	1,274	06-09 13:31
Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c	55	$9.08K	1,534	06-03 22:58
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	48	$539.2K	7,862	06-09 14:27