Mean-Yam — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$4.76K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.79K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

134

2,261 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$85.9K

$2.11M lifetime

Avg / trade

$935

Open exposure

$23.7K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-01 16:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Other

61% 69% +$26,534

Politics

33% 91% +$3,675

Sports

3% 100% +$90

Crypto

3% 50% +$313

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+18,000	$17,546	99¢	$17.8K	+$211	10-31 06:51
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+3,000	$2,740	94¢	$2.8K	+$95	10-09 00:53
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+2,000	$1,840	94¢	$1.9K	+$50	10-06 08:07
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+2,000	$1,540	52¢	$1.1K	-$490	09-16 00:32
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	+3,100	$2,822	6¢	$170	-$2,652	07-31 17:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	194	$242.8K	129,000	129,000	+0	No	+$1,527	07-06 02:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	175	$145.0K	68,085	79,300	-11,214	No	+$1,113	05-18 00:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	88	$110.8K	62,754	50,000	+12,754	No	+$1,815	07-30 09:28
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	153	$99.5K	57,404	45,258	+12,145	Yes	+$550	03-04 16:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	69	$89.0K	42,551	49,594	-7,042	No	+$2,818	06-01 16:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	32	$85.2K	43,203	43,203	+0	Yes	+$1,130	06-17 11:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	16	$73.8K	37,000	37,000	+0	Yes	+$83	04-08 04:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	164	$66.1K	68,000	0	+68,000	Yes	+$1,909	04-29 13:46
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	44	$62.3K	65,000	0	+65,000	Yes	+$2,656	01-26 21:37
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	12	$59.9K	60,000	0	+60,000	Yes	+$60	07-09 08:23
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	27	$58.9K	40,000	20,000	+20,000	No	+$1,040	08-14 05:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	88	$57.7K	26,000	34,000	-8,000	No	+$2,132	06-15 12:47
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	18	$56.4K	47,500	10,000	+37,500	No	+$264	04-13 11:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	52	$48.1K	52,000	2,000	+50,000	Yes	+$3,081	10-27 16:40
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	14	$39.7K	40,000	0	+40,000	No	+$330	06-02 10:43
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	4	$38.8K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	+$1,190	07-04 15:19
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	15	$36.9K	37,000	0	+37,000	Yes	+$136	04-08 15:21
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	19	$35.9K	18,000	18,000	+0	No	+$54	04-03 02:22
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	4	$32.9K	28,000	5,000	+23,000	No	+$87	01-03 18:27
will donk be said during the pgl bucharest 2026 grand final	19	$26.9K	27,317	0	+27,317	No	+$438	04-15 10:09
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	21	$25.4K	13,100	13,100	+0	Yes	+$764	05-09 08:29
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	3	$24.8K	25,000	0	+25,000	No	+$175	01-03 17:30
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	70	$24.7K	17,200	17,200	+0	open	—	10-31 13:23
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	14	$22.9K	22,982	0	+22,982	No	+$116	04-03 03:23
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	16	$22.0K	22,000	0	+22,000	Yes	+$44	04-19 13:55
will olivia rodrigo release an album in 2025	34	$21.4K	11,000	11,000	+0	No	-$184	01-02 03:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	54	$20.9K	21,148	0	+21,148	No	+$280	05-13 11:30
will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january	33	$19.9K	20,229	0	+20,229	Yes	+$286	01-29 23:58
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$19.9K	20,000	0	+20,000	Yes	+$140	01-31 13:17
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	39	$18.9K	10,140	10,140	+0	No	+$755	07-18 16:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 16:45:12	Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0x23f2ec…
11-01 09:00:57	Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?	No	BUY	500	81¢	$406	0x8a133f…
10-31 23:22:31	Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	39	39¢	$15	0x564d76…
10-31 13:23:37	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	1,200	72¢	$864	0x8dc566…
10-31 06:51:09	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	98¢	$4,885	0x0e1c69…
10-31 06:50:58	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	98¢	$1,958	0x46059c…
10-30 17:22:42	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	216	23¢	$50	0xe9f399…
10-30 13:44:01	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	341	23¢	$78	0x396c0a…
10-30 13:38:06	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	17	23¢	$4	0x8714d0…
10-30 13:17:52	Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	26	23¢	$6	0x3991a0…
10-29 17:43:44	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	97¢	$1,944	0x6d9cc3…
10-29 17:41:31	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	1,931	98¢	$1,883	0x4f0dfb…
10-29 17:18:55	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	78	98¢	$76	0x727a11…
10-29 17:17:44	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	129	98¢	$126	0x12f831…
10-29 17:17:13	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x8f0727…
10-29 17:17:10	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x573238…
10-29 17:17:07	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x220af9…
10-29 17:17:05	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xda860e…
10-29 17:17:05	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	2,645	98¢	$2,579	0xcecbe0…
10-29 17:17:05	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xc641ad…
10-29 17:17:05	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	48	97¢	$47	0x58fa47…
10-29 17:17:05	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x2eaeab…
10-29 17:17:05	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2180c9…
10-29 17:17:05	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x07148e…
10-29 16:48:25	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	83	98¢	$81	0x5e9753…
10-29 16:12:08	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x5280b3…
10-29 16:12:07	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xfd879a…
10-29 16:12:07	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	1,007	98¢	$983	0x54b65e…
10-29 16:11:40	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x95d278…
10-29 16:11:40	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x3d9e31…
10-29 16:11:40	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x3aa4f3…
10-29 16:11:04	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0xcb1c20…
10-29 16:11:04	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0xad0e75…
10-29 16:11:04	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x9d4d32…
10-29 16:11:04	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x8b6ec5…
10-29 16:11:04	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x79cc8b…
10-29 16:11:04	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x6c9eaf…
10-29 16:10:19	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xa26e5a…
10-29 16:07:49	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x989490…
10-29 16:07:46	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xcc12b1…
10-29 16:06:41	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x06c40a…
10-29 16:06:32	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x3649cf…
10-29 16:06:31	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0xd4fba0…
10-29 16:06:31	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xba16e2…
10-29 16:06:31	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0xb74864…
10-29 16:06:31	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0xaac313…
10-29 16:06:31	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x827c62…
10-29 16:06:31	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x62df8d…
10-29 16:06:31	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x226bab…
10-29 16:03:23	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	85	98¢	$83	0x0875f1…
10-29 15:54:46	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x8e8249…
10-27 16:49:00	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	97¢	$1,932	0xb5ed00…
10-27 16:40:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,000	93¢	$5,580	0x5fc9ee…
10-27 16:32:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	93¢	$1,868	0xd4626d…
10-27 16:15:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,893	94¢	$2,713	0xb24c3f…
10-27 16:15:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,667	94¢	$1,565	0x953f39…
10-27 16:15:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x4eeb17…
10-27 16:15:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	107	94¢	$101	0x320a63…
10-27 16:15:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0xae9a2c…
10-27 16:15:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xe984a1…
10-27 16:15:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xca2aa5…
10-27 16:15:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x92c685…
10-27 16:15:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x487251…
10-27 16:15:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x3a50fa…
10-27 16:15:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	791	94¢	$743	0xe9aa9e…
10-27 16:15:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xd9b960…
10-27 16:15:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	134	94¢	$126	0x289efb…
10-27 16:14:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0xe14e49…
10-27 16:14:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xa7703f…
10-27 16:14:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	201	94¢	$189	0x9ac664…
10-27 16:14:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xd89ffb…
10-27 16:14:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xc5466b…
10-27 16:14:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x9eb7a4…
10-27 16:14:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	94¢	$1,128	0x863091…
10-27 16:14:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x79c4d5…
10-27 16:13:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	201	94¢	$188	0xf95438…
10-27 16:13:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xb53d39…
10-27 16:13:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xb44f88…
10-27 16:13:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x5f4fad…
10-27 16:13:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	94¢	$1,128	0x528132…
10-27 16:13:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,564	94¢	$1,471	0x9484f5…
10-27 16:13:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xc5afb8…
10-27 16:13:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x9d42af…
10-27 16:13:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	294	94¢	$277	0x9d3a31…
10-26 17:12:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,000	92¢	$3,680	0x93b2c8…
10-23 12:22:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x4204b1…
10-23 12:22:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	88	91¢	$80	0x7383e9…
10-23 12:22:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	133	91¢	$121	0x6310f7…
10-23 12:22:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0x3323fd…
10-23 12:22:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	396	91¢	$360	0x2a4b13…
10-23 12:21:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	91¢	$15	0x3e9d6b…
10-23 12:20:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x93d374…
10-23 12:16:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	91¢	$228	0xccf1f8…
10-23 12:16:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	550	91¢	$500	0xb7b60c…
10-23 12:16:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x985321…
10-23 12:16:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,400	91¢	$1,274	0x8cc116…
10-23 12:16:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	450	91¢	$410	0x504809…
10-23 12:16:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,056	91¢	$961	0x37927d…
10-23 12:14:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	92¢	$4,600	0xf17f57…
10-23 12:13:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	93¢	$9,300	0x07abb5…