Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$237.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$16.6K

Hit rate

96.7%

Resolved

765

Trades

18,670

lifetime

Volume

$30.1M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.61K

Open exposure

$300.5K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-22 02:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 123 days

Categories

Politics

42% 95% -$153,875

Other

41% 97% +$21,812

Crypto

17% 98% -$107,547

Tech

0% 100% +$952

Sports

0% 100% +$817

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	-306,204	-$283,239	98¢	$-299927	-$16,688	04-28 16:32
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	-404	-$392	98¢	$-394	-$2	09-21 16:21
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	-2,520	-$233	6¢	$-151	+$81	08-11 02:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	8	$1.57M	1,569,002	0	+1,569,002	Yes	+$2,098	04-08 09:29
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$998.0K	1,000,000	0	+1,000,000	Yes	+$2,000	04-09 01:09
lighter market cap fdv 1b one day after launch	1	$735.3K	736,000	0	+736,000	Yes	+$736	01-01 12:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	416	$405.9K	410,125	254,354	+155,771	Yes	-$226,131	03-01 04:16
us forces enter iran by march 7	147	$383.3K	384,307	0	+384,307	No	+$995	03-08 07:16
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	201	$379.6K	380,000	0	+380,000	Yes	+$380	02-02 09:55
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	1	$369.6K	370,000	0	+370,000	No	+$370	01-03 08:45
will olivia rodrigo release an album in 2025	3	$363.5K	363,869	0	+363,869	No	+$364	01-03 08:14
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 380 399	103	$334.2K	334,615	0	+334,615	No	+$420	04-17 17:28
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	136	$322.7K	319,629	9,982	+309,646	No	+$4,884	02-01 05:29
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	69	$316.9K	159,384	160,000	-616	Yes	+$1,802	03-18 14:18
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	36	$310.1K	316,903	0	+316,903	No	+$6,842	02-10 04:45
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1	$283.2K	0	306,204	-306,204	open	—	04-28 16:32
us strikes iran by february 8 2026	40	$269.6K	269,904	0	+269,904	No	+$296	02-09 06:48
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	300	$265.9K	268,522	0	+268,522	No	+$2,603	04-28 13:27
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	158	$262.5K	271,596	0	+271,596	No	+$9,077	02-25 09:10
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	63	$259.2K	260,000	0	+260,000	No	+$830	02-06 04:22
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	21	$249.5K	250,673	0	+250,673	No	+$1,205	04-01 13:12
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	13	$247.7K	248,115	0	+248,115	No	+$373	01-15 04:12
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	32	$239.7K	239,923	0	+239,923	No	+$245	04-21 06:14
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 240 259	54	$229.7K	230,000	0	+230,000	No	+$320	02-05 18:17
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	75	$209.7K	210,750	0	+210,750	No	+$1,009	02-20 04:00
will iran strike israel on march 6	28	$207.7K	208,000	0	+208,000	No	+$339	03-11 03:01
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	93	$197.7K	198,106	0	+198,106	No	+$387	02-01 07:08
bitcoin above 68k on march 8	93	$193.5K	193,736	0	+193,736	No	+$197	03-08 18:58
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	243	$181.8K	183,562	0	+183,562	No	+$1,734	04-25 01:19
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 200 219	30	$181.4K	181,635	0	+181,635	No	+$197	02-09 15:15
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 360 379	31	$180.9K	181,211	0	+181,211	No	+$297	01-22 18:12
bitcoin above 78k on february 3	13	$179.8K	180,000	0	+180,000	No	+$184	02-03 16:52
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	36	$179.8K	180,000	0	+180,000	No	+$210	02-07 04:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-22 02:13:35	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	400	99¢	$395	0x10c894…
09-21 16:21:18	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	338	97¢	$328	0x7c17b1…
09-21 13:50:48	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x1e8552…
09-21 13:48:33	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x5b37f9…
09-21 13:16:57	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xa4efc8…
09-21 13:14:35	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	51	97¢	$49	0x3a72f8…
09-21 09:14:17	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	583	99¢	$579	0x9c9b09…
09-21 09:13:20	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x10c3fe…
09-21 09:13:18	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	150	99¢	$149	0x73f188…
09-18 01:42:03	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	740	100¢	$739	0x00f25e…
09-01 05:32:39	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	630	100¢	$629	0x4680fd…
08-11 02:38:13	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	969	8¢	$78	0x118000…
07-09 02:30:22	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0x998010…
07-09 00:21:53	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0xb6d9cc…
07-08 23:34:05	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x801dfc…
07-08 23:08:11	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$20	0xa5a663…
07-08 14:17:17	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,329	10¢	$133	0x866d41…
05-13 11:29:20	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	99¢	$83	0x1fc082…
05-13 11:10:27	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,317	99¢	$1,306	0x1d1ce2…
05-10 13:48:01	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	17¢	$170	0x38afbe…
05-01 00:50:36	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	67,480	99¢	$67,075	0xc284ca…
04-30 20:24:20	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	10,060	99¢	$10,000	0xa131a9…
04-29 05:15:30	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xb40468…
04-29 05:10:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x30024b…
04-29 05:03:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x4dcf9b…
04-29 05:00:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x919fe9…
04-29 05:00:06	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xe915cd…
04-29 05:00:06	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xe55336…
04-29 05:00:00	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfaf190…
04-29 04:59:56	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x881de7…
04-29 04:59:56	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x69feae…
04-29 04:59:56	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x5c579e…
04-29 04:59:56	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1b432c…
04-29 04:59:56	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x064c85…
04-29 04:59:04	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	187	99¢	$185	0x819ecc…
04-29 04:37:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5,468	99¢	$5,429	0xa615a7…
04-29 04:30:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	79	99¢	$78	0x930eed…
04-29 03:50:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	714	99¢	$709	0x239520…
04-29 03:39:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	201	99¢	$200	0xdcdec9…
04-29 03:34:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xeddfab…
04-29 03:34:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xb34615…
04-29 03:29:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	194	100¢	$194	0x6df12e…
04-29 03:29:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	429	99¢	$426	0xd4e95c…
04-29 03:28:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0xe82781…
04-29 03:26:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfb5c7c…
04-29 03:14:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0xd3f98e…
04-29 03:14:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x8c4abe…
04-29 03:10:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	169	99¢	$168	0x19a1b7…
04-29 03:03:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x362f97…
04-29 03:03:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	96	99¢	$95	0x438e95…
04-29 03:02:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	714	99¢	$709	0x42e2ba…
04-29 03:02:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0xdf8d6e…
04-29 03:02:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0aac11…
04-29 03:01:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xaf793b…
04-29 03:01:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xfa56d3…
04-29 03:01:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xda0596…
04-29 03:01:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x41ab85…
04-29 03:01:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x3cd6c1…
04-29 03:01:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x1debda…
04-29 03:01:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	467	99¢	$464	0xf9c215…
04-29 03:00:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,307	99¢	$1,298	0xd408d7…
04-29 02:51:56	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x0506d2…
04-29 02:50:42	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3,466	100¢	$3,452	0xf8f6e5…
04-29 02:41:02	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	250	99¢	$248	0x3cd3d9…
04-29 02:40:50	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	86	99¢	$85	0x03acb7…
04-29 02:40:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1,407	100¢	$1,406	0x7dc46a…
04-29 02:40:38	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xc45a5d…
04-29 02:39:52	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xfcb6b3…
04-29 02:18:50	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x22d7dc…
04-29 02:18:32	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0xdab41d…
04-29 02:18:00	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0xb65eaf…
04-29 02:17:16	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0x345186…
04-29 02:16:46	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0xd3aa96…
04-29 02:16:16	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0x905d6a…
04-29 02:15:46	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0x4901b0…
04-29 02:15:22	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0x3d06fa…
04-29 02:14:46	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x7f4437…
04-29 02:08:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x44a9b6…
04-29 02:06:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x8500dd…
04-29 02:05:44	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x9fe790…
04-29 02:04:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0xc5068d…
04-29 02:02:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x71404a…
04-29 01:52:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0x75eb45…
04-29 01:50:48	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	286	99¢	$284	0x1ced55…
04-29 01:42:32	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x08b940…
04-29 01:40:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x9970ed…
04-29 01:38:12	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xc9d3c0…
04-29 01:36:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xd21e5a…
04-29 01:36:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xca9a73…
04-29 01:36:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xc64878…
04-29 01:36:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xc555d5…
04-29 01:36:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xbd0b20…
04-29 01:36:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x8b857f…
04-29 01:36:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x6ff232…
04-29 01:36:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x56bf64…
04-29 01:36:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x38045a…
04-29 01:36:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x39feb9…
04-29 01:29:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0x65e26a…
04-29 01:21:50	Russian strike on Poland by June 30?	No	BUY	893	94¢	$841	0x302538…
04-29 01:21:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x4987e8…