Realized P&L
+$14.3K
Unrealized P&L
-$2.56K
Hit rate
94.2%
Resolved
77
Trades
1,801
lifetime
Volume
$3.66M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2.03K
Open exposure
$62.8K
5 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-17 02:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 26 days
Categories
Politics
46%
95%
+$8,964
Other
37%
94%
+$26,456
Crypto
16%
75%
-$26,914
Tech
1%
100%
+$287
Sports
0%
100%
+$5,479
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-17).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | -69,285 | -$25,913 | 38¢ | $-26536 | -$624 | 06-23 22:29 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | -20,131 | -$18,722 | 96¢ | $-19306 | -$584 | 07-16 05:46 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | -8,851 | -$8,329 | 97¢ | $-8572 | -$243 | 07-17 02:34 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | -8,495 | -$8,147 | 98¢ | $-8287 | -$140 | 07-16 13:33 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | +3,690 | $1,090 | 3¢ | $118 | -$972 | 05-24 11:59 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026 | 64 | $478.8K | 480,000 | 0 | +480,000 | Yes | +$1,160 | 04-29 23:53 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 7 | $372.7K | 377,118 | 2,118 | +375,000 | No | +$2,890 | 06-02 21:38 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 3 | $249.4K | 250,000 | 0 | +250,000 | No | +$550 | 04-29 16:33 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 62 | $208.0K | 210,000 | 0 | +210,000 | No | +$1,990 | 03-27 20:10 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 2 | $199.8K | 150,000 | 50,000 | +100,000 | Yes | +$100 | 03-03 16:08 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? | 14 | $153.6K | 153,784 | 0 | +153,784 | Yes | +$154 | 04-22 05:51 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 1 | $149.7K | 150,000 | 0 | +150,000 | Yes | +$300 | 04-07 02:30 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | 111 | $141.8K | 96,916 | 86,381 | +10,535 | Yes | -$34,860 | 05-29 02:46 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 16 | $137.9K | 140,000 | 0 | +140,000 | No | +$2,050 | 02-02 18:18 |
| will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week | 35 | $124.6K | 125,000 | 0 | +125,000 | No | +$375 | 04-15 02:16 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 1 | $99.7K | 100,000 | 0 | +100,000 | Yes | +$300 | 01-31 19:37 |
| nuclear weapon detonation by march 31 | 68 | $93.2K | 99,150 | 0 | +99,150 | No | +$5,910 | 03-04 00:56 |
| new stranger things episode released by april 30 | 1 | $80.2K | 80,329 | 0 | +80,329 | No | +$161 | 04-25 14:01 |
| will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026 | 63 | $73.7K | 73,976 | 0 | +73,976 | No | +$296 | 03-25 13:16 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 3 | $59.0K | 59,074 | 0 | +59,074 | Yes | +$118 | 03-04 16:26 |
| microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026 | 31 | $53.6K | 56,306 | 0 | +56,306 | No | +$2,745 | 03-26 07:39 |
| ilhan omar town hall attack staged | 57 | $53.3K | 56,538 | 0 | +56,538 | No | +$3,237 | 01-30 03:34 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 22 | $52.2K | 30,000 | 30,000 | +0 | Yes | +$3,000 | 02-17 22:50 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 1 | $49.8K | 49,916 | 0 | +49,916 | No | +$150 | 04-25 14:30 |
| will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749 | 8 | $41.2K | 41,646 | 0 | +41,646 | No | +$447 | 03-27 08:37 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926 | 28 | $38.7K | 39,000 | 0 | +39,000 | No | +$269 | 03-25 09:10 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 15 | $36.4K | 20,000 | 20,000 | +0 | No | -$392 | 05-06 14:54 |
| Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? | 31 | $32.9K | 33,460 | 0 | +33,460 | No | +$576 | 01-17 11:59 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 50 | $32.3K | 32,868 | 0 | +32,868 | No | +$580 | 04-25 00:54 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 41 | $29.5K | 29,588 | 0 | +29,588 | No | +$118 | 03-25 13:18 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 3 | $29.3K | 30,000 | 0 | +30,000 | No | +$720 | 04-05 01:46 |
| Crude Oil all time high by April 30? | 22 | $29.2K | 29,521 | 0 | +29,521 | No | +$360 | 04-27 02:03 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 5 | $25.9K | 0 | 69,285 | -69,285 | open | — | 06-23 22:29 |
| will trump post potus this week on truth social | 2 | $24.9K | 25,000 | 0 | +25,000 | Yes | +$50 | 04-21 00:20 |
| SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? | 1 | $24.9K | 25,000 | 0 | +25,000 | No | +$100 | 04-25 21:06 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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