Realized P&L
-$2.16M
Unrealized P&L
+$9.07K
Hit rate
66.1%
Resolved
434
Trades
22,006
lifetime
Volume
$19.4M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$881
Open exposure
$46.2K
4 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 06-22 20:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 117 days
Categories
Politics
46%
73%
-$2,202,874
Sports
27%
52%
+$226,864
Other
27%
61%
-$186,901
Crypto
0%
100%
+$5,254
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-22).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | +30,000 | $24,300 | 97¢ | $29.0K | +$4,725 | 05-06 16:27 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | +16,416 | $9,850 | 94¢ | $15.5K | +$5,664 | 04-29 13:56 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | +8,445 | $1,106 | 13¢ | $1.1K | -$38 | 06-10 08:55 | |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? | Yes | +3,887 | $1,926 | 16¢ | $641 | -$1,285 | 06-17 22:59 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 242 | $1.11M | 1,158,333 | 0 | +1,158,333 | Yes | +$50,848 | 02-02 22:13 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 378 | $788.2K | 1,009,427 | 839,875 | +169,552 | Yes | -$758,393 | 03-01 01:51 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 109 | $520.0K | 689,003 | 0 | +689,003 | Yes | -$519,966 | 02-27 13:42 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 57 | $486.0K | 490,668 | 10,668 | +480,000 | Yes | +$1,828 | 04-07 14:41 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026 | 71 | $484.2K | 164,262 | 326,428 | -162,167 | No | +$5,840 | 02-01 00:52 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 410 | $414.9K | 477,986 | 0 | +477,986 | No | +$63,071 | 02-01 04:28 |
| will iran strike israel on march 10 | 71 | $399.0K | 400,000 | 0 | +400,000 | Yes | +$1,000 | 03-16 04:50 |
| us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751 | 8 | $374.8K | 384,388 | 0 | +384,388 | No | +$9,598 | 02-09 15:42 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 60 | $297.8K | 348,165 | 0 | +348,165 | No | +$40,377 | 03-31 05:34 |
| maduro in us custody by january 31 | 1 | $265.0K | 265,521 | 0 | +265,521 | Yes | +$531 | 01-03 22:29 |
| us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553 | 67 | $263.2K | 286,342 | 0 | +286,342 | No | +$23,097 | 02-20 21:44 |
| us strikes iran by february 18 2026 | 39 | $263.1K | 267,423 | 0 | +267,423 | No | +$4,275 | 02-19 02:18 |
| us strikes iran by february 24 2026 | 26 | $239.2K | 248,337 | 0 | +248,337 | No | +$9,133 | 02-24 21:51 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 27 | $229.3K | 231,433 | 0 | +231,433 | Yes | +$2,113 | 01-28 14:38 |
| us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992 | 33 | $229.2K | 238,450 | 0 | +238,450 | No | +$9,250 | 02-19 21:51 |
| ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14 | 460 | $217.9K | 391,556 | 56,462 | +335,094 | Ciryl Gane | +$173,687 | 06-15 03:52 |
| ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14 | 144 | $197.5K | 249,999 | 0 | +249,999 | Justin Gaethje | -$197,500 | 06-15 04:29 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 124 | $196.9K | 230,950 | 161,505 | +69,445 | Yes | -$195,200 | 03-01 01:50 |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | 166 | $187.6K | 390,986 | 0 | +390,986 | Yes | -$187,622 | 02-28 06:13 |
| will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165 | 4 | $180.6K | 180,822 | 0 | +180,822 | No | +$217 | 04-05 02:22 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 33 | $174.0K | 205,297 | 0 | +205,297 | No | +$31,330 | 04-01 12:50 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 26 | $161.1K | 171,042 | 0 | +171,042 | Yes | +$9,988 | 02-25 20:54 |
| ufc vit3 ste36 2026 03 14 | 74 | $155.1K | 238,358 | 0 | +238,358 | Vitor Petrino | +$83,292 | 03-14 23:26 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 199 | $145.4K | 173,872 | 0 | +173,872 | No | +$28,476 | 02-01 04:25 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 137 | $144.3K | 170,046 | 0 | +170,046 | Yes | -$144,308 | 04-07 03:29 |
| ufc sea2 ant 2026 02 21 | 223 | $142.3K | 204,285 | 0 | +204,285 | Strickland | -$142,290 | 02-22 02:02 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 64 | $135.5K | 168,577 | 0 | +168,577 | Yes | -$135,546 | 04-29 17:20 |
| us strikes iran by february 22 2026 | 16 | $132.5K | 139,555 | 0 | +139,555 | No | +$7,066 | 02-22 23:19 |
| ufc der wal2 2026 01 24 | 628 | $129.5K | 175,869 | 0 | +175,869 | Cortes-Acosta | +$46,343 | 01-25 03:40 |
| israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453 | 199 | $127.1K | 162,536 | 0 | +162,536 | No | +$35,478 | 01-30 17:09 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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