Broken-Dogwood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10.8K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.3%

Resolved

Trades

60,385

lifetime

Volume

$56.6M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$938

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-09 18:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

60% 57% +$10,153

Other

37% 83% +$628

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 920 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	165	$5.63M	5,646,289	0	+5,646,289	Yes	+$13,283	05-09 19:45
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2,152	$3.84M	3,086,285	1,871,113	+1,215,172	open	—	02-04 00:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	110	$2.88M	4,597,104	1,207,475	+3,389,629	Yes	$-3,283	05-09 19:26
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1,095	$2.58M	3,585,349	628,644	+2,956,705	open	—	04-09 00:25
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	1,668	$2.55M	3,018,858	677,362	+2,341,496	open	—	03-04 18:24
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2,558	$2.54M	2,007,511	1,390,598	+616,913	open	—	01-28 18:57
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	455	$2.35M	3,232,619	928,568	+2,304,052	open	—	01-05 00:11
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	220	$1.84M	1,994,099	629,937	+1,364,162	open	—	05-01 00:04
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	297	$1.51M	1,998,473	626,029	+1,372,444	open	—	06-04 00:18
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	767	$1.31M	1,644,429	168,395	+1,476,035	open	—	04-09 20:32
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	1,696	$1.28M	2,533,827	1,109,788	+1,424,040	open	—	01-28 20:10
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	299	$1.10M	794,759	349,473	+445,286	open	—	02-04 00:06
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2,868	$1.08M	2,038,408	429,351	+1,609,056	open	—	03-04 01:05
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1,179	$1.06M	822,768	444,523	+378,245	open	—	03-18 18:00
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	517	$952.7K	842,395	262,352	+580,043	open	—	03-12 23:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1,039	$883.5K	1,244,581	367,688	+876,893	open	—	04-30 00:45
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2,862	$811.6K	1,899,505	617,822	+1,281,683	open	—	01-31 23:54
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	438	$780.0K	641,160	372,360	+268,800	open	—	04-08 14:16
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	201	$767.1K	718,010	90,661	+627,349	open	—	05-01 00:07
will melania say career during ai talk on friday	101	$740.8K	650,289	214,937	+435,352	open	—	01-21 00:03
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	174	$697.9K	752,786	73,575	+679,211	open	—	04-24 04:57
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	33	$637.2K	565,474	77,007	+488,467	open	—	04-21 00:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1,060	$610.8K	717,251	65,095	+652,155	open	—	06-17 21:54
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	59	$560.3K	560,856	0	+560,856	open	—	05-18 22:04
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1,267	$519.8K	1,417,198	172,162	+1,245,036	open	—	03-04 19:03
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	532	$516.1K	405,190	162,236	+242,954	open	—	03-12 22:16
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	460	$502.8K	326,878	249,659	+77,218	open	—	06-17 18:49
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	351	$491.1K	637,129	120,509	+516,620	open	—	06-18 00:23
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	628	$485.8K	542,746	82,150	+460,596	open	—	03-31 12:54
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	974	$482.3K	736,848	202,065	+534,783	open	—	03-01 03:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 18:27:27	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6,000	5¢	$300	0x2af0a4…
08-08 21:26:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	1,080	88¢	$950	0x23533a…
08-08 18:46:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x38f5fd…
08-08 16:03:40	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x244448…
08-08 15:44:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	622	86¢	$535	0x2f7e4c…
08-08 13:56:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	333	83¢	$276	0x3c7a1b…
08-08 13:10:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,111	12¢	$133	0xcbc6f6…
08-08 13:10:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	1,815	10¢	$182	0x8af031…
08-07 19:54:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	370	11¢	$41	0x182811…
08-07 19:54:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0xb1372a…
08-07 19:54:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x8df2ab…
08-07 19:53:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x016557…
08-07 19:30:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	1,816	11¢	$200	0x0343e5…
08-07 12:47:57	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	886	64¢	$567	0x9e793a…
08-07 12:43:37	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1,770	61¢	$1,079	0xb6618b…
08-07 12:34:37	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	6,814	42¢	$2,862	0x83a45a…
08-07 12:32:36	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	2,346	57¢	$1,343	0x30365f…
08-06 18:23:51	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xa9197f…
08-06 15:59:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	13,640	84¢	$11,457	0x4397cd…
08-06 15:58:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,111	84¢	$933	0x3c8c3b…
08-05 21:14:03	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0xdfa929…
08-05 19:40:21	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x824833…
08-05 18:32:39	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xe001da…
08-05 10:22:29	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	185	82¢	$151	0x9dec68…
08-05 10:22:27	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	518	82¢	$425	0xe501f1…
08-04 20:36:15	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	138	4¢	$6	0xfbe428…
08-04 14:36:14	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	222	53¢	$118	0x52dc01…
08-04 14:23:02	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	666	68¢	$453	0x2a4205…
08-04 14:21:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	149	54¢	$80	0x0c25b5…
08-04 14:17:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	295	54¢	$158	0xa586b0…
08-04 14:12:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	3,535	35¢	$1,237	0x88fdcb…
08-04 13:33:38	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	666	70¢	$466	0x4f9997…
08-04 13:09:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3,333	80¢	$2,666	0x2efce4…
08-04 12:57:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	209	33¢	$69	0x89d710…
08-04 12:57:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,614	33¢	$533	0x8308e0…
08-04 11:52:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x6c041c…
08-04 11:50:32	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	319	63¢	$201	0xc58451…
08-04 01:23:47	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	559	47¢	$263	0xa4adcd…
08-04 01:13:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	186	43¢	$80	0xc4ebbf…
08-04 01:06:18	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	1,519	4¢	$67	0x781e90…
08-04 01:04:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	704	43¢	$303	0x5cd49a…
08-04 01:02:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0x79ac4e…
08-04 01:00:38	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	23	43¢	$10	0xba0c8a…
08-04 01:00:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0x480266…
08-04 00:59:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	188	42¢	$79	0x56c131…
08-04 00:58:44	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	647	78¢	$508	0x437fbf…
08-04 00:58:23	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	1,007	40¢	$403	0x20b4de…
08-04 00:21:05	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0xc288ad…
08-04 00:01:26	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	3,379	4¢	$149	0x2084c8…
08-03 23:33:38	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	1,111	55¢	$611	0xdaa020…
08-03 23:14:02	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	555	51¢	$283	0x83dc92…
08-03 23:06:12	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	1,621	87¢	$1,408	0xff9333…
08-03 23:04:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,204	87¢	$1,047	0x1aa45e…
08-03 23:03:12	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	2,222	4¢	$91	0xf49be4…
08-03 22:29:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	2,965	13¢	$385	0x7e747c…
08-02 22:24:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	340	55¢	$187	0x68c412…
08-02 22:24:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	250	34¢	$85	0x484ad6…
08-02 22:10:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	333	57¢	$190	0x4d65fe…
08-02 22:07:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	231	59¢	$136	0x20b450…
08-02 22:05:23	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xea699e…
08-02 22:05:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0x9dff54…
08-02 22:04:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	0	59¢	$0	0xb5816f…
08-02 22:00:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	67	59¢	$40	0x2d8294…
08-02 08:44:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	1,796	57¢	$1,023	0x968eeb…
08-02 03:53:39	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	1,111	4¢	$40	0xf73cfa…
08-02 02:21:02	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0x004533…
08-02 01:59:00	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	1,254	2¢	$26	0x85be85…
08-02 01:06:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x429ab9…
08-02 00:38:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	2,222	18¢	$400	0x93682e…
08-02 00:05:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	102	22¢	$22	0xd2fab0…
08-02 00:02:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	9	22¢	$2	0xb9382f…
08-02 00:02:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xfdfbf8…
08-02 00:02:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xfa4967…
08-02 00:02:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xa99347…
08-02 00:02:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xe48e49…
08-02 00:02:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	9	22¢	$2	0xc29c96…
08-02 00:02:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	410	22¢	$90	0xc6f774…
08-02 00:02:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x6a36e2…
08-02 00:02:35	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	9	22¢	$2	0xc1e9ed…
08-02 00:02:35	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x6acbc5…
08-02 00:02:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	9	22¢	$2	0xffc827…
08-02 00:02:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xbe7712…
08-02 00:02:32	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x847f7d…
08-02 00:01:20	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	9	22¢	$2	0x50e4be…
08-02 00:01:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x5e453c…
08-02 00:01:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	830	21¢	$174	0xd7755c…
08-02 00:00:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	497	22¢	$109	0x1083a8…
08-01 23:56:42	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	2,455	5¢	$122	0x94a3aa…
08-01 23:53:24	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	2,614	3¢	$71	0xb6eb7c…
08-01 21:55:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	1,111	14¢	$156	0xa76e4d…
08-01 21:37:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x1e097e…
08-01 21:37:20	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	3,283	12¢	$394	0x0d35fe…
08-01 21:04:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x46afcd…
08-01 21:04:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xa063d6…
08-01 21:04:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x4d9222…
08-01 21:04:14	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xf594d3…
08-01 21:04:14	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x54a774…
08-01 21:04:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xf00623…
08-01 21:04:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x44321c…
08-01 21:04:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x8a5452…