Realized P&L (90d)
-$14.3K
Unrealized P&L
+$29.4K
Hit rate
67.9%
Resolved (90d)
106
Trades (90d)
7,896
93,339 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$3.08M
$71.0M lifetime
Avg / trade
$761
Open exposure
$350.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-13 15:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 177 days
Categories
Politics
52%
65%
+$148,112
Other
36%
70%
+$71,549
Sports
9%
75%
-$116,405
Crypto
2%
83%
+$11,296
Tech
0%
100%
+$242
Pop-Culture
0%
100%
+$3
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk
• peak 886 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +70,757 | $65,659 | 99¢ | $70.0K | +$4,356 | 08-28 21:02 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | +76,323 | $54,711 | 80¢ | $60.7K | +$5,966 | 11-11 22:52 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +32,304 | $24,157 | 92¢ | $29.9K | +$5,724 | 11-08 23:11 | |
| will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026 | No | +30,076 | $23,935 | 98¢ | $29.6K | +$5,675 | 11-02 00:32 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +21,377 | $18,383 | 97¢ | $20.8K | +$2,449 | 11-08 22:09 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | +14,669 | $7,339 | 97¢ | $14.2K | +$6,882 | 06-14 05:22 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | +64,893 | $15,458 | 20¢ | $13.3K | -$2,155 | 10-28 00:47 | |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | +11,111 | $10,900 | 99¢ | $11.0K | +$61 | 11-12 21:01 | |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | +10,777 | $9,355 | 97¢ | $10.4K | +$1,077 | 11-10 14:58 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | +11,111 | $9,444 | 90¢ | $10.1K | +$611 | 11-10 14:07 | |
| Plague pandemic in 2026? | No | +8,888 | $8,452 | 99¢ | $8.8K | +$316 | 10-07 15:52 | |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | +8,888 | $7,788 | 98¢ | $8.8K | +$962 | 06-15 14:26 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | +8,564 | $7,969 | 98¢ | $8.4K | +$466 | 06-17 23:51 | |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | +7,419 | $6,924 | 97¢ | $7.2K | +$243 | 10-27 19:44 | |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | +7,467 | $4,492 | 92¢ | $6.9K | +$2,414 | 06-16 19:18 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | -6,692 | -$6,176 | 99¢ | $-6598 | -$422 | 04-30 22:08 | |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | +12,698 | $5,122 | 37¢ | $4.7K | -$456 | 11-05 18:23 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | +4,565 | $4,200 | 98¢ | $4.5K | +$266 | 09-19 20:00 | |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | +3,333 | $3,286 | 100¢ | $3.3K | +$42 | 06-06 09:30 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | +37,396 | $7,778 | 8¢ | $2.8K | -$4,974 | 11-08 22:13 | |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | +4,186 | $2,636 | 63¢ | $2.6K | +$12 | 11-06 14:07 | |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | +5,140 | $4,314 | 46¢ | $2.4K | -$1,958 | 09-13 20:41 | |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,341 | $2,148 | 98¢ | $2.3K | +$154 | 10-20 01:59 | |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,003 | $1,843 | 98¢ | $2.0K | +$125 | 06-30 18:44 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +2,008 | $1,936 | 98¢ | $2.0K | +$25 | 11-04 15:18 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | +2,222 | $1,289 | 84¢ | $1.9K | +$589 | 11-09 19:58 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | +1,863 | $1,621 | 94¢ | $1.7K | +$121 | 11-02 13:39 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | +2,717 | $569 | 55¢ | $1.5K | +$939 | 09-13 21:14 | |
| will turkey join the abraham accords before 2027 | No | +1,424 | $1,275 | 96¢ | $1.4K | +$99 | 07-28 14:08 | |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? | Yes | +4,949 | $1,535 | 26¢ | $1.3K | -$224 | 11-08 21:52 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 165 | $5.63M | 5,646,289 | 0 | +5,646,289 | Yes | +$13,283 | 05-09 19:45 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 2,152 | $3.84M | 3,086,285 | 1,871,113 | +1,215,172 | Yes | -$3,610 | 02-04 00:01 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 110 | $2.88M | 4,597,104 | 1,207,475 | +3,389,629 | Yes | -$3,283 | 05-09 19:26 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 1,095 | $2.58M | 3,585,349 | 628,644 | +2,956,705 | Yes | +$1,580 | 04-09 00:25 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 1,668 | $2.55M | 3,018,858 | 677,362 | +2,341,496 | No | +$15,838 | 03-04 18:24 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 2,558 | $2.54M | 2,007,511 | 1,390,598 | +616,913 | Yes | -$27,818 | 01-28 18:57 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 455 | $2.35M | 3,232,619 | 928,568 | +2,304,052 | No | +$2,554 | 01-05 00:11 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 220 | $1.84M | 1,994,099 | 629,937 | +1,364,162 | No | +$744 | 05-01 00:04 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 304 | $1.62M | 2,112,282 | 626,965 | +1,485,317 | No | +$10,811 | 06-04 00:18 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 767 | $1.31M | 1,644,429 | 168,395 | +1,476,035 | Yes | +$3,302 | 04-09 20:32 |
| fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting | 1,696 | $1.28M | 2,533,827 | 1,109,788 | +1,424,040 | No | +$26,286 | 01-28 20:10 |
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 299 | $1.10M | 794,759 | 349,473 | +445,286 | Yes | +$1,507 | 02-04 00:06 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 2,868 | $1.08M | 2,038,408 | 429,351 | +1,609,056 | Yes | +$15,210 | 03-04 01:05 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 1,179 | $1.06M | 822,768 | 444,523 | +378,245 | Yes | +$14,806 | 03-18 18:00 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 326 | $1.01M | 953,141 | 179,982 | +773,160 | No | +$2,098 | 05-14 01:17 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 517 | $952.7K | 842,395 | 262,352 | +580,043 | Yes | +$4,281 | 03-12 23:29 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 1,039 | $883.5K | 1,244,581 | 367,688 | +876,893 | No | +$5,600 | 04-30 00:45 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 2,862 | $811.6K | 1,899,505 | 617,822 | +1,281,683 | No | +$4,331 | 01-31 23:54 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 402 | $797.0K | 953,553 | 561,522 | +392,031 | No | +$8,655 | 06-29 20:42 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | 438 | $780.0K | 641,160 | 372,360 | +268,800 | Yes | +$1,389 | 04-08 14:16 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026 | 201 | $767.1K | 718,010 | 90,661 | +627,349 | Yes | +$3,158 | 05-01 00:07 |
| will melania say career during ai talk on friday | 101 | $740.8K | 650,289 | 214,937 | +435,352 | No | +$507 | 01-21 00:03 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 1,407 | $718.6K | 888,142 | 111,713 | +776,429 | Yes | +$18,123 | 06-17 21:54 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 1,353 | $701.4K | 1,596,009 | 894,295 | +701,714 | No | -$3,595 | 07-15 21:04 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | 174 | $697.9K | 752,786 | 73,575 | +679,211 | Yes | +$848 | 04-24 04:57 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 767 | $674.1K | 460,526 | 317,136 | +143,390 | No | +$2,607 | 06-17 18:49 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 1,846 | $640.3K | 1,122,443 | 570,066 | +552,378 | No | -$59,976 | 07-14 20:52 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026 | 33 | $637.2K | 565,474 | 77,007 | +488,467 | Yes | +$713 | 04-21 00:28 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 541 | $570.4K | 781,813 | 154,621 | +627,192 | Yes | +$2,382 | 06-18 00:23 |
| Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? | 60 | $570.3K | 570,856 | 0 | +570,856 | Yes | +$571 | 05-18 22:04 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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