Squiggly-Cub — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.14K

Unrealized P&L

+$400

Hit rate

19.7%

Resolved

Trades

3,659

lifetime

Volume

$535.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$146

Open exposure

$1.98K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-18 22:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

73% 33% $-5,283

Other

24% 75% $-861

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 98 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	-1,183	$-964	66¢	$-775	+$189	06-18 00:38
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+2,500	$525	29¢	$713	+$188	07-15 20:42
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+4,697	$470	11¢	$493	+$23	07-13 19:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	177	$119.8K	162,327	122,640	+39,687	open	—	06-17 23:40
netanyahu out by march 31 854	18	$17.7K	9,184	9,184	+0	open	—	03-19 21:01
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	107	$17.4K	23,143	22,036	+1,107	open	—	03-01 17:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	86	$16.5K	149,111	55,152	+93,959	open	—	05-14 18:15
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	153	$16.0K	34,920	31,670	+3,250	open	—	04-05 23:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	68	$15.9K	51,018	20,799	+30,220	open	—	05-29 06:26
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	106	$14.9K	60,315	50,387	+9,928	open	—	03-30 19:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	82	$14.9K	47,632	42,686	+4,947	open	—	04-25 19:39
will axiom be accused of insider trading	63	$14.4K	10,654	10,490	+163	open	—	02-26 10:34
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	6	$14.2K	8,966	8,966	+0	open	—	06-25 00:11
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	78	$12.0K	11,215	11,215	+0	open	—	02-27 11:24
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	52	$11.5K	21,409	21,409	+0	open	—	04-05 13:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	25	$10.7K	36,826	26,016	+10,810	open	—	05-23 18:45
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	125	$9.8K	32,843	25,093	+7,750	open	—	04-21 20:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	112	$9.5K	74,732	40,613	+34,118	open	—	06-26 23:47
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	35	$9.4K	7,748	2,021	+5,727	open	—	03-01 09:29
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	31	$8.7K	16,082	16,082	+0	open	—	04-08 14:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	21	$7.4K	61,398	54,424	+6,974	open	—	05-07 17:49
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	24	$7.2K	6,625	6,625	-0	open	—	06-01 19:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	58	$7.2K	19,988	19,988	+0	open	—	04-07 23:53
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	91	$7.0K	28,455	28,455	+0	open	—	04-14 23:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	11	$6.2K	52,894	0	+52,894	open	—	05-09 11:37
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	28	$6.2K	11,532	8,531	+3,000	open	—	07-07 19:00
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	10	$5.8K	3,167	3,167	+0	open	—	04-12 19:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	27	$5.7K	14,087	7,531	+6,557	open	—	05-25 19:40
nvda quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 25 2026 1pt52	225	$5.7K	47,834	48,144	-310	open	—	02-25 19:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	93	$5.6K	41,576	40,081	+1,495	open	—	04-07 22:47
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	12	$5.0K	3,393	3,393	+0	open	—	02-28 10:31
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	21	$5.0K	12,353	10,340	+2,013	open	—	03-12 21:39
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	42	$4.7K	6,521	6,521	+0	open	—	04-07 23:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 22:59:36	mlb tex atl 2026 07 18	Atlanta Braves	BUY	1,500	21¢	$315	0x66a640…
07-18 22:49:54	mlb tex atl 2026 07 18	Atlanta Braves	BUY	2,000	21¢	$420	0xc77118…
07-15 20:42:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,500	21¢	$525	0xa804b7…
07-14 02:05:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	1,540	7¢	$106	0x187538…
07-13 23:01:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	11,845	6¢	$675	0x89fbcd…
07-13 21:51:26	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	116	7¢	$8	0x62fbd0…
07-13 20:38:56	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	3,228	7¢	$232	0x283b22…
07-13 19:44:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	10,000	6¢	$620	0x228a08…
07-13 19:34:08	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	675	7¢	$47	0x2c10b6…
07-13 19:25:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	4,220	7¢	$312	0x672e77…
07-13 19:23:38	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	53	10¢	$5	0x32f4f3…
07-13 19:20:32	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x7fb4b8…
07-13 19:19:55	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x496dae…
07-13 19:19:55	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	10¢	$2	0x251323…
07-13 19:19:53	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	312	10¢	$31	0x3f10f7…
07-13 19:19:41	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4,309	10¢	$431	0xec72fc…
07-13 19:03:37	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	5,184	7¢	$383	0x5f0378…
07-09 20:02:26	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	1,202	34¢	$409	0x6c1f1c…
07-09 20:02:16	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	845	34¢	$287	0xc2f205…
07-08 22:36:20	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	133	26¢	$35	0x2312e3…
07-08 22:25:46	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	1,914	27¢	$513	0x54ebef…
07-07 19:00:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	593	28¢	$165	0xe1c546…
07-07 19:00:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	40	28¢	$11	0x6100b9…
07-07 19:00:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	398	28¢	$111	0x7a5b6a…
07-07 18:55:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	677	24¢	$159	0x7d31b1…
07-07 18:54:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	18	24¢	$4	0x322823…
07-07 18:54:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	69	24¢	$16	0x6927b4…
07-07 18:53:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xb013de…
07-07 18:53:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	263	24¢	$62	0x83df7e…
07-07 02:24:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	647	24¢	$155	0xcd89a4…
07-07 02:24:22	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0xc8e97f…
07-07 02:24:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	22	24¢	$5	0xb6a036…
07-07 02:24:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	1,260	24¢	$302	0xd12ebf…
07-07 02:23:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xd0ecda…
07-07 02:21:47	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	3,846	26¢	$1,000	0xd99e7f…
07-07 02:21:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0x88d511…
07-07 02:08:41	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1,000	30¢	$300	0x3d33d4…
07-07 02:06:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	887	34¢	$302	0x869f03…
07-07 02:05:59	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x434a8e…
07-07 02:05:59	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x135935…
07-07 02:05:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	152	34¢	$52	0xf2ef0f…
07-07 02:05:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0xaf07fe…
07-07 02:05:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	410	34¢	$139	0x1a3cb1…
07-07 02:05:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	3,342	34¢	$1,136	0x3f4bd5…
07-07 02:05:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	165	34¢	$56	0xe3e8e3…
07-07 01:14:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	700	38¢	$266	0x72a5db…
07-07 01:14:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	800	38¢	$304	0x6c43f8…
07-07 01:02:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	1,500	35¢	$525	0xeab80b…
07-07 00:55:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	3,000	34¢	$1,020	0x7142a3…
07-01 21:03:28	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	667	1¢	$6	0xd3bf54…
07-01 20:37:31	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	700	43¢	$301	0x1ffc9f…
07-01 20:21:13	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0xb2aa6e…
07-01 19:49:25	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	393	53¢	$208	0x97f8e5…
07-01 19:49:08	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	384	53¢	$204	0xe1051e…
07-01 19:44:04	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xfcb358…
07-01 19:44:04	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	74	53¢	$39	0xe0b7fd…
07-01 19:44:04	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	48	53¢	$25	0x9c2e47…
07-01 19:44:04	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	49	53¢	$26	0x68daaa…
07-01 19:44:04	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	53¢	$1	0x5ad52b…
07-01 19:44:02	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x37409e…
07-01 19:39:08	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1,000	52¢	$520	0xfb9b1f…
07-01 19:38:41	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xfa95c2…
07-01 19:38:40	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0xf89815…
06-29 22:14:02	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	376	25¢	$93	0x14baeb…
06-29 21:45:05	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	13	26¢	$3	0xf260fd…
06-29 21:45:05	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	12	26¢	$3	0xd0996c…
06-29 21:22:34	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	15	30¢	$4	0xb76eff…
06-29 21:19:02	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	595	30¢	$178	0x3f817f…
06-29 21:07:52	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	134	71¢	$95	0x6ef76a…
06-29 21:05:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	19	31¢	$6	0x9b15e6…
06-29 21:05:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	19	31¢	$6	0x96ac5b…
06-29 21:05:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	19	31¢	$6	0x4bdf2c…
06-29 21:05:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	19	31¢	$6	0x50f3f9…
06-29 21:05:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	19	31¢	$6	0x167150…
06-29 20:59:49	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x6c7544…
06-29 07:19:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	800	25¢	$200	0x054ea0…
06-29 07:12:29	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	446	25¢	$112	0x84ebd7…
06-28 07:00:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5,328	14¢	$746	0xc78bff…
06-26 23:47:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x672b5c…
06-26 23:45:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0xa52c02…
06-26 23:44:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x74d12a…
06-26 23:43:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xf0988c…
06-26 23:41:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xa06790…
06-26 23:31:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x4e5143…
06-26 23:28:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xf143a9…
06-26 23:27:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xf14fd8…
06-26 23:25:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	122	5¢	$6	0x4d2ec8…
06-26 23:24:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,100	5¢	$57	0xa229cf…
06-26 23:23:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0xab8825…
06-26 23:22:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x252168…
06-26 23:21:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x1e2577…
06-26 23:20:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	62	5¢	$3	0x0229fd…
06-26 23:17:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	120	5¢	$6	0xf64755…
06-26 23:14:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0xb5ef7c…
06-26 23:14:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xce9bd3…
06-26 07:06:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,068	9¢	$99	0xa31e8c…
06-26 07:05:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,658	9¢	$154	0x403d6c…
06-26 04:27:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	3,000	12¢	$372	0x95e3ef…
06-25 22:10:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	17,000	5¢	$799	0x1e3b9b…
06-25 22:09:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5,000	5¢	$250	0x24e737…