Oddball-Maniac — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$77.1K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

18,958

lifetime

Volume

$200.6M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10.6K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-17 12:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

77% 100% +$62,539

Other

22% 100% +$14,554

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 1488 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	515	$31.62M	31,619,828	35,000	+31,584,828	Yes	+$31,705	05-09 19:27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	705	$22.96M	22,986,565	0	+22,986,565	Yes	+$23,148	05-09 19:44
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1,186	$11.27M	6,055,906	5,241,268	+814,639	open	—	04-08 16:19
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	844	$7.89M	7,044,904	860,142	+6,184,762	open	—	03-25 11:58
will melania say career during ai talk on friday	1,308	$7.45M	7,069,747	390,757	+6,678,990	open	—	01-20 16:39
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	517	$7.31M	6,157,107	1,167,057	+4,990,050	open	—	01-03 12:16
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	125	$7.26M	7,162,800	102,000	+7,060,800	open	—	04-20 08:02
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	762	$7.13M	7,157,954	0	+7,157,954	open	—	04-09 02:57
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?	409	$6.47M	5,516,061	960,376	+4,555,685	open	—	04-15 19:24
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	375	$5.86M	5,755,029	120,000	+5,635,029	open	—	02-03 07:17
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	74	$4.97M	4,977,500	0	+4,977,500	open	—	06-17 12:58
Trump kiss by May 31?	566	$4.89M	4,892,383	0	+4,892,383	open	—	05-21 12:32
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	588	$4.77M	4,774,706	0	+4,774,706	open	—	03-03 01:43
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	444	$4.34M	4,351,050	0	+4,351,050	open	—	02-09 07:59
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	904	$4.29M	4,205,204	89,678	+4,115,526	open	—	01-31 19:56
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	325	$4.03M	4,031,078	0	+4,031,078	open	—	04-27 00:55
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	324	$3.95M	3,957,655	0	+3,957,655	open	—	03-04 17:47
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	18	$3.10M	3,109,520	0	+3,109,520	Yes	+$6,784	05-03 13:40
will iran strike israel on march 10	791	$2.84M	2,848,123	0	+2,848,123	open	—	03-17 21:08
will trump say million or billion or trillion 10 times during cnbc interview	607	$2.80M	2,800,933	0	+2,800,933	open	—	01-25 00:46
will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january	380	$2.58M	2,584,841	864	+2,583,976	open	—	01-30 23:10
will iran strike israel on march 6	99	$2.11M	2,111,694	0	+2,111,694	open	—	03-11 10:34
will the us strike somalia next 656	252	$2.07M	2,069,664	0	+2,069,664	open	—	01-27 02:11
will nick shirley attend the 2026 state of the union address	137	$1.78M	1,781,990	0	+1,781,990	open	—	02-28 17:23
earnings mentions netflix 2026 01 20 warner bros 1 times	338	$1.72M	1,720,618	0	+1,720,618	open	—	01-24 22:13
us strikes iraq by february 28	75	$1.65M	1,650,908	0	+1,650,908	open	—	03-06 00:56
will trump say unbelievable or fantastic or incredible 10 times during panthers visit	187	$1.63M	1,633,843	0	+1,633,843	open	—	01-19 01:44
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	180	$1.62M	1,623,285	0	+1,623,285	open	—	04-24 17:58
will trump say jesus this week march 8	254	$1.48M	1,480,173	0	+1,480,173	open	—	03-11 11:24
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	100	$1.46M	1,461,941	0	+1,461,941	open	—	04-26 12:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-17 12:58:02	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	7,500	100¢	$7,485	0x93057a…
06-17 09:30:26	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	970,000	100¢	$968,060	0x101538…
06-17 09:30:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5fe1d4…
06-17 09:29:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x6d2745…
06-17 09:28:53	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,990	0x4c1b4e…
06-17 09:28:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x7b56f6…
06-17 09:28:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x7dc9da…
06-17 09:27:50	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xf42fc0…
06-17 09:24:14	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	3,500	100¢	$3,493	0xf52003…
06-17 09:24:01	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0x75c3f0…
06-17 09:23:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,111	100¢	$1,109	0xff4714…
06-17 09:22:59	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x0645a5…
06-17 09:22:53	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	20,000	100¢	$19,960	0x0adb1a…
06-17 09:22:32	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,665	100¢	$2,660	0x9011ba…
06-17 09:21:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	3,500	100¢	$3,493	0x56110c…
06-17 09:20:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x2330b7…
06-17 09:20:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	15,000	100¢	$14,970	0xdce3c9…
06-17 09:19:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0x3c0388…
06-17 09:18:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	467,095	100¢	$466,161	0xd0a8d8…
06-17 09:17:41	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	21,550	100¢	$21,507	0x0d02ff…
06-17 09:16:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	26,000	100¢	$25,948	0xf44df8…
06-17 09:15:11	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500,000	100¢	$499,000	0xe75b12…
06-17 09:14:44	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	10,250	100¢	$10,230	0xf6f41c…
06-17 09:14:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	668	100¢	$667	0xeead57…
06-17 09:14:02	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,254	100¢	$2,249	0x55ee5d…
06-17 09:13:32	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x43e380…
06-17 09:13:20	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,990	0x5149de…
06-17 09:12:01	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x6ec854…
06-17 09:11:56	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	11,000	100¢	$10,978	0x0686fd…
06-17 09:11:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	5,050	100¢	$5,040	0xa1e3f1…
06-17 09:09:14	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x909f3b…
06-17 09:09:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xfc9074…
06-17 09:08:32	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xab4bfd…
06-17 09:07:56	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	10,470	100¢	$10,449	0xdc9f20…
06-17 09:07:47	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	45,000	100¢	$44,910	0x9da56c…
06-17 09:07:05	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0xa78cb0…
06-17 09:06:08	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0xa6d06a…
06-17 09:05:41	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x3e2fa6…
06-17 09:05:38	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,994	0x07f152…
06-17 09:05:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0x281adf…
06-17 09:04:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	940	100¢	$938	0xfa760c…
06-17 09:03:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x444485…
06-17 09:03:08	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0x53cc18…
06-17 09:02:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xc45860…
06-17 09:01:32	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0x01d2a7…
06-17 09:00:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xd9dfec…
06-17 09:00:08	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x39c0db…
06-17 08:59:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xb2cf46…
06-17 08:59:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	667	100¢	$665	0x245864…
06-17 08:57:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x5aeecb…
06-17 08:56:47	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x6746c6…
06-17 08:56:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0x641a44…
06-17 08:55:23	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x72761f…
06-17 08:54:53	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x7943e7…
06-17 08:53:44	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x49eea0…
06-17 08:53:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,994	0x4fa25f…
06-17 08:53:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	3,500	100¢	$3,493	0xd0907f…
06-17 08:53:20	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,833	100¢	$1,830	0xf55e09…
06-17 08:52:14	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,990	0x0f1c4d…
06-17 08:50:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x132799…
06-17 08:50:20	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	25,000	100¢	$24,950	0xfe731a…
06-17 08:49:53	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	9,000	100¢	$8,982	0x2464a4…
06-17 08:49:26	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0xae8c24…
06-17 08:49:05	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x56b9f2…
06-17 08:42:26	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	7,000	100¢	$6,986	0x7440ce…
06-17 08:41:17	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	25,000	100¢	$24,950	0xc591ab…
06-17 08:39:59	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xbfc859…
06-17 08:37:32	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	52,401	100¢	$52,296	0x2bcd44…
06-17 08:36:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,980	0x89d3bf…
06-17 08:36:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	162,402	100¢	$162,077	0x48d6f2…
06-01 18:45:17	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200,000	100¢	$199,800	0xfd15ce…
05-26 15:25:34	Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	No	BUY	55,525	100¢	$55,470	0xc13b3e…
05-26 15:03:48	Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	No	BUY	100,000	100¢	$99,900	0x36dfcb…
05-26 15:03:48	Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	No	BUY	4,850	100¢	$4,845	0x300509…
05-26 15:03:32	Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	No	BUY	2,420	100¢	$2,418	0xfecba9…
05-26 15:03:31	Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	No	BUY	37,205	100¢	$37,167	0xa90ad7…
05-23 15:47:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	4,734	24¢	$1,131	0x0b1571…
05-23 15:45:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0xd0b448…
05-23 15:45:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x58fcbb…
05-23 15:45:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	26	24¢	$6	0x66955f…
05-23 15:40:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	144	24¢	$35	0x215f6d…
05-23 15:40:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	145	24¢	$35	0xa914a9…
05-23 15:33:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	3,931	24¢	$939	0x816586…
05-23 15:10:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	27	24¢	$6	0xd28e1b…
05-23 15:08:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0xf9efb6…
05-23 14:56:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	3,903	25¢	$976	0x374526…
05-23 14:26:32	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	934	25¢	$235	0x17400e…
05-23 14:17:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	845	26¢	$215	0x49497a…
05-23 14:07:19	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	9,092	26¢	$2,318	0x10cf45…
05-23 14:01:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	13,123	25¢	$3,307	0x6352cb…
05-23 14:00:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	9,864	24¢	$2,384	0x5b18eb…
05-23 13:49:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	1,033	28¢	$287	0x612089…
05-23 13:46:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	16,990	26¢	$4,389	0xa66da1…
05-23 13:46:15	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	43	28¢	$12	0xdeb54c…
05-23 13:46:01	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	21	28¢	$6	0x5dc29d…
05-23 13:45:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	130	29¢	$38	0x07dfc4…
05-23 13:45:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	134	29¢	$39	0x721fe7…
05-23 13:45:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	76	29¢	$22	0xcbdac2…
05-23 13:44:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	41,622	27¢	$11,310	0x1f9e57…
05-23 13:42:31	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	1,200	29¢	$346	0x28e258…