Humiliating-Yacht — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

56.7%

Resolved

Trades

248

lifetime

Volume

$12.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

$32

1 position

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-25 20:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

52% 100% +$1

Politics

27% — —

Sports

17% 0% —

Crypto

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+581	$35	6¢	$32	$-3	06-15 17:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	6	$621	615	615	+0	open	—	06-19 10:11
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	7	$575	463	463	+0	open	—	04-26 17:52
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	5	$536	271	271	+0	open	—	04-17 20:57
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	6	$491	266	266	+0	open	—	05-20 23:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	7	$453	437	437	+0	open	—	06-09 15:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	8	$427	415	415	+0	open	—	06-12 12:38
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	5	$422	215	215	+0	No	+$0	04-09 20:50
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	4	$378	360	360	+0	open	—	06-21 05:19
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	2	$368	191	191	+0	open	—	03-21 11:06
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	4	$367	324	324	+0	open	—	05-31 19:08
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$333	285	285	+0	open	—	05-28 18:41
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	3	$323	622	622	+0	open	—	06-21 16:57
Netanyahu out by June 30?	8	$322	702	702	+0	open	—	06-14 10:25
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	7	$314	470	470	+0	Yes	+$0	04-25 12:45
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	4	$310	321	321	+0	open	—	04-20 19:23
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$307	175	175	+0	open	—	05-21 06:18
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$305	159	159	+0	open	—	05-23 16:40
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	3	$298	184	184	+0	open	—	06-08 05:40
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	2	$297	257	257	+0	open	—	03-22 01:18
Will Alberta join the US?	3	$297	155	155	+0	open	—	06-01 16:31
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$294	149	149	+0	No	+$0	04-18 10:00
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8	$292	475	474	+1	open	—	04-26 01:24
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	3	$281	142	142	+0	open	—	05-18 19:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	3	$279	143	143	+0	open	—	05-15 17:37
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$273	140	140	+0	open	—	03-29 13:04
will purdue win the 2026 ncaa tournament	3	$268	142	142	+0	open	—	03-25 13:42
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$267	144	144	+0	No	+$0	04-14 03:46
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	5	$267	141	141	+0	open	—	03-23 21:22
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	3	$241	168	167	+1	open	—	06-25 20:50
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	2	$184	93	93	+0	open	—	06-02 05:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 20:50:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xf58803…
06-24 19:55:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	162	72¢	$117	0xdee512…
06-24 19:54:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	168	72¢	$121	0xc826f9…
06-21 16:57:56	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	SELL	126	26¢	$33	0x480dbc…
06-21 16:57:56	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	SELL	496	26¢	$129	0x384242…
06-21 16:56:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	BUY	622	26¢	$162	0xb2e8b4…
06-21 05:19:52	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	166	10¢	$17	0x136212…
06-21 03:20:58	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	10¢	$17	0xa9883e…
06-20 22:55:43	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	294	19¢	$56	0xa1ae11…
06-20 20:24:47	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	19¢	$23	0xedffde…
06-20 20:24:47	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	171	19¢	$32	0x6b27a1…
06-19 10:11:44	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	210	49¢	$103	0xa40e76…
06-19 10:11:44	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	98	49¢	$48	0x6842db…
06-19 07:59:47	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	308	49¢	$151	0xa8ac66…
06-18 15:40:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	72	27¢	$19	0xa3aa29…
06-18 14:17:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	28¢	$17	0xe17db0…
06-18 14:17:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x4b468c…
06-18 12:21:07	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	194	88¢	$171	0x2b8b6e…
06-18 10:06:16	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	194	89¢	$172	0xb79842…
06-17 01:09:11	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	35	8¢	$3	0x6e4254…
06-17 01:09:11	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	42	8¢	$3	0x009201…
06-17 01:08:28	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x6eb008…
06-17 01:08:28	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	53	8¢	$4	0x5b3bdd…
06-17 01:08:22	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	8¢	$1	0x4083a3…
06-15 22:48:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	79	90¢	$71	0xe65429…
06-15 21:42:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x39cf0c…
06-15 21:42:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	69	90¢	$62	0x1ffbb7…
06-15 17:34:19	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	581	6¢	$35	0xea167f…
06-15 02:38:07	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0xed439b…
06-15 02:38:07	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	263	25¢	$67	0xdcb3fd…
06-15 02:35:36	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	69	25¢	$17	0x8320c1…
06-15 02:35:36	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	121	25¢	$31	0x476e0e…
06-15 02:35:36	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	113	25¢	$29	0x3554c6…
06-15 01:09:01	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0x0ed278…
06-15 01:09:00	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	188	22¢	$42	0x2068bd…
06-14 22:45:28	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	196	21¢	$42	0x605165…
06-14 20:17:54	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	33	7¢	$2	0xd44d5b…
06-14 15:56:18	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xf39432…
06-14 10:25:54	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	156	99¢	$154	0xce9262…
06-14 08:00:42	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	156	99¢	$154	0x2aff4e…
06-14 05:20:21	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	159	1¢	$2	0xa4b6ff…
06-14 05:20:21	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	64	1¢	$1	0x8acda1…
06-14 03:59:28	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	223	1¢	$3	0x4283a2…
06-13 12:13:21	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	SELL	323	1¢	$4	0x3a7f4d…
06-13 10:12:27	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	159	1¢	$2	0x0dba3f…
06-13 10:12:27	Netanyahu out by June 30?	Yes	BUY	164	1¢	$2	0x00ba55…
06-12 12:38:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	45	57¢	$26	0xf883db…
06-12 12:38:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x2fcc13…
06-12 12:38:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	223	57¢	$127	0xfb7a96…
06-12 09:58:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	273	54¢	$147	0xc51186…
06-10 16:28:30	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	92	1¢	$1	0x69024e…
06-10 13:20:57	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	92	2¢	$1	0x171f4f…
06-09 15:20:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	164	45¢	$74	0x3da304…
06-09 13:51:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0x113ffd…
06-09 13:50:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	45¢	$70	0x0c55e6…
06-09 01:19:06	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	157	11¢	$17	0x096ff6…
06-08 23:20:10	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x9a43b4…
06-08 23:20:10	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	155	12¢	$19	0x578f3a…
06-08 20:58:58	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	37	67¢	$25	0x3bfc06…
06-08 17:32:22	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0xb8394d…
06-08 05:40:22	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	184	81¢	$149	0xed833c…
06-05 23:27:21	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0xb27d1d…
06-05 23:27:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	173	81¢	$140	0x222bd8…
06-05 02:36:25	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	145	19¢	$28	0x2ef373…
06-05 00:57:33	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xcbadb5…
06-05 00:57:33	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	140	19¢	$27	0xa49493…
06-04 01:02:34	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	156	1¢	$2	0x8ab5e6…
06-03 22:47:34	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	1¢	$0	0xcb48aa…
06-03 22:47:34	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	122	1¢	$2	0x2504bd…
06-03 08:41:26	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	165	1¢	$2	0xb8c62a…
06-03 06:20:17	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	165	1¢	$2	0xca8edb…
06-02 23:40:32	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	263	2¢	$6	0xca4a0b…
06-02 23:40:30	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	67	2¢	$1	0xd79622…
06-02 21:50:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	330	2¢	$7	0x5d9b5c…
06-02 14:19:10	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0x70a825…
06-02 10:03:13	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	39	52¢	$20	0xb5f3a4…
06-02 10:03:13	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	268	52¢	$139	0x92b9ca…
06-02 10:01:48	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	307	52¢	$160	0xa91457…
06-02 05:23:36	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	93	99¢	$92	0xbf3ae0…
06-02 04:00:46	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	93	99¢	$92	0x2d44e1…
06-01 16:31:56	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	126	96¢	$121	0x8bdbff…
06-01 16:31:56	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0x0b47f2…
06-01 12:48:19	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	155	96¢	$148	0x99452b…
05-31 19:08:12	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	116	30¢	$35	0xc50919…
05-31 17:34:47	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	116	30¢	$35	0x8b1158…
05-30 20:51:24	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	165	3¢	$5	0x745f76…
05-30 19:38:31	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	165	3¢	$5	0xfb3978…
05-30 07:29:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	56	44¢	$25	0xee3bd2…
05-30 07:29:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	86	44¢	$38	0x832443…
05-30 05:21:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0x88ad79…
05-30 05:21:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	128	43¢	$55	0x1a284f…
05-29 18:55:15	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	2¢	$2	0x4687f3…
05-29 16:31:57	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x60b03f…
05-29 16:31:57	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	2¢	$3	0x53e3ff…
05-29 08:07:04	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	208	71¢	$148	0x7d1d85…
05-29 04:17:28	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	208	72¢	$150	0xf48994…
05-28 18:41:05	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	285	58¢	$165	0xe51090…
05-28 17:24:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	285	59¢	$168	0xa7e8a7…
05-28 11:37:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	176	56¢	$99	0x403334…
05-28 11:37:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	97	56¢	$54	0x351f36…