Realized P&L
-$4.05K
Unrealized P&L
+$119
Hit rate
62.2%
Resolved
11
Trades
7,325
lifetime
Volume
$982.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$134
Open exposure
$19.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 16:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
52% 50% $-3,994
Other
43% 83% $-58
Sports
3% 100% +$4
Crypto
2%
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 87 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +4,300 $3,380 72¢ $3.1K $-306 07-16 01:15
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No +1,600 $1,407 93¢ $1.5K +$83 07-20 16:15
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No +1,549 $1,247 90¢ $1.4K +$154 07-17 04:56
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +1,492 $1,217 90¢ $1.3K +$120 07-20 15:42
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -1,172 $-1,091 97¢ $-1136 $-45 07-06 06:27
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -1,513 $-1,073 68¢ $-1022 +$51 07-15 18:31
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +900 $818 92¢ $824 +$6 07-20 16:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +1,500 $1,045 54¢ $802 $-242 07-17 00:51
China coup attempt before 2027? No +697 $665 96¢ $671 +$6 07-20 16:42
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No +700 $620 88¢ $616 $-4 07-20 16:00
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -596 $-552 90¢ $-533 +$19 07-16 04:54
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes +600 $502 88¢ $525 +$23 07-20 07:12
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +587 $435 82¢ $481 +$46 07-21 14:46
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No +447 $378 98¢ $436 +$58 07-20 15:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +400 $260 99¢ $395 +$135 07-11 14:38
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -400 $-380 97¢ $-387 $-7 06-11 19:08
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -400 $-350 94¢ $-378 $-28 06-11 02:29
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +500 $340 74¢ $368 +$27 07-13 18:41
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? No +722 $353 50¢ $365 +$11 07-10 16:38
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? No -379 $-348 89¢ $-337 +$11 07-20 21:07
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No -300 $-299 99¢ $-296 +$3 07-01 14:43
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? No +297 $289 98¢ $290 +$1 07-16 20:15
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No -293 $-274 98¢ $-287 $-12 05-30 19:23
US x China Military clash before 2027? No +300 $285 95¢ $286 +$1 07-20 16:18
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +300 $185 76¢ $229 +$44 06-23 09:17
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +232 $213 92¢ $212 $-1 07-21 11:09
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No -259 $-155 80¢ $-206 $-51 06-24 03:43
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? No -200 $-199 98¢ $-197 +$2 07-04 03:08
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No +200 $185 98¢ $195 +$10 06-22 19:03
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +200 $188 95¢ $190 +$2 07-12 16:17