Realized P&L
-$19.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.22K
Hit rate
85.2%
Resolved
975
Trades
12,386
lifetime
Volume
$1.43M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$116
Open exposure
$32.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-29 22:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 232 days
Categories
Other
47% 80% +$5,422
Politics
47% 79% -$29,848
Sports
3% 88% +$1,710
Tech
2% 84% +$683
Crypto
1% 84% +$2,268
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 137 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31 No +4,206 $2,972 80¢ $3.4K +$393 10-15 21:09
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -2,400 -$2,012 96¢ $-2306 -$294 06-11 02:29
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -2,064 -$1,909 91¢ $-1878 +$31 10-19 01:43
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No +1,600 $1,180 92¢ $1.5K +$300 10-29 17:55
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +1,639 $1,209 80¢ $1.3K +$102 10-14 19:27
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +1,400 $1,242 92¢ $1.3K +$46 10-29 22:55
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? No -1,333 -$1,263 94¢ $-1260 +$3 10-27 15:07
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes -1,255 -$1,340 96¢ $-1210 +$131 10-12 22:42
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -1,196 -$1,072 94¢ $-1118 -$46 07-16 04:54
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No -1,400 -$952 76¢ $-1057 -$105 06-14 16:06
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No +1,038 $894 94¢ $979 +$85 10-23 12:00
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +1,122 $1,017 87¢ $976 -$41 10-29 17:54
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +917 $783 99¢ $907 +$124 10-09 20:12
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +900 $859 99¢ $891 +$32 10-29 22:24
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +926 $642 94¢ $866 +$224 10-29 17:45
Trump out as President before 2027? No -900 -$830 96¢ $-864 -$34 09-30 07:17
anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31 Anthropic +894 $719 92¢ $818 +$99 10-29 17:49
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +1,200 $910 68¢ $810 -$100 10-09 17:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +800 $762 100¢ $799 +$38 10-19 16:37
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? No +800 $755 99¢ $792 +$37 10-28 22:13
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +800 $775 97¢ $779 +$4 10-29 17:50
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes +1,100 $801 70¢ $764 -$36 10-17 19:13
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +785 $646 96¢ $756 +$110 10-21 17:40
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +916 $299 80¢ $733 +$434 10-29 17:36
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917 Yes +1,000 $854 72¢ $720 -$134 10-29 21:40
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,211 $828 57¢ $690 -$138 10-27 19:14
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -721 -$675 96¢ $-689 -$14 07-15 04:07
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -683 -$656 98¢ $-673 -$16 09-18 21:59
Iran leadership change by November 30? No +700 $636 90¢ $633 -$2 10-29 22:53
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -600 -$570 97¢ $-581 -$11 06-26 11:29