Worse-Analogue — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$6.68K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

$21

1 position

First seen

2026-03-07

last 06-25 22:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

70% — —

Sports

17% 100% +$1

Politics

13% 100% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+382	$21	6¢	$21	$-0	06-16 15:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$1.3K	636	636	+0	open	—	04-15 08:56
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$1.1K	580	580	+0	No	+$1	04-16 16:01
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	5	$643	420	419	+1	open	—	03-10 18:11
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 260 279	2	$455	236	236	+0	open	—	03-10 01:26
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	6	$424	492	492	+0	open	—	06-24 06:09
will trn lu quang be the next prime minister of vietnam	2	$414	226	226	+0	open	—	03-09 21:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$225	125	125	+0	open	—	06-15 23:58
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	8	$214	298	298	+0	open	—	06-23 22:15
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$206	109	109	+0	open	—	06-17 17:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	5	$198	204	204	+0	open	—	05-27 15:26
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	3	$198	206	206	+0	open	—	06-23 09:36
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$198	113	113	+0	open	—	05-25 23:35
Will Alberta join the US?	2	$186	97	97	+0	open	—	06-02 00:21
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	4	$159	81	81	+0	open	—	06-05 08:41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$159	162	162	+0	open	—	06-05 12:49
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	8	$140	265	265	+0	open	—	06-15 18:21
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	3	$126	121	121	+0	Yes	+$8	04-24 16:29
Netanyahu out by June 30?	3	$100	51	51	+0	open	—	06-12 09:25
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 380 399	3	$91	414	414	+0	open	—	03-10 10:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	9	$44	561	561	+0	open	—	06-07 20:13
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	2	$38	234	234	+0	open	—	06-25 22:59
will jordan spieth win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$25	461	461	+0	open	—	03-07 11:09
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	2	$22	386	4	+382	open	—	06-16 15:27
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	3	$13	358	358	+0	open	—	06-04 21:57
Iran leadership change by June 30?	3	$5	51	51	+0	open	—	06-03 01:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 22:59:37	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	234	8¢	$19	0x62f698…
06-25 22:58:13	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	234	8¢	$19	0xd1e2c1…
06-24 06:09:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	132	32¢	$42	0x96ea45…
06-24 06:09:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	178	32¢	$57	0x84dadf…
06-24 06:09:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	32	32¢	$10	0x4ed20a…
06-24 02:13:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	BUY	342	32¢	$109	0x5d1740…
06-23 22:15:07	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	118	14¢	$17	0x514ec7…
06-23 22:15:07	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	88	14¢	$12	0x494b46…
06-23 19:25:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	206	14¢	$29	0x09787c…
06-23 14:58:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	SELL	150	68¢	$102	0x14a079…
06-23 13:40:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	150	69¢	$103	0x725ef4…
06-23 09:36:47	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	77	47¢	$36	0xd8850b…
06-23 09:36:46	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	129	47¢	$61	0x96fd70…
06-23 03:58:19	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	206	49¢	$101	0x0c559c…
06-23 00:43:02	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	33	86¢	$28	0x0ede68…
06-23 00:42:52	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	42	86¢	$36	0xd8f2c1…
06-23 00:42:52	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	17	86¢	$15	0x794ec6…
06-22 20:37:08	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	38	84¢	$32	0x976ec4…
06-22 20:37:08	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	54	84¢	$45	0x5ba8c1…
06-17 17:32:56	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	109	94¢	$103	0x65afe7…
06-17 16:10:35	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	109	94¢	$103	0xd31a6e…
06-16 15:27:58	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	6¢	$0	0xcc1f3d…
06-15 23:58:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	125	90¢	$112	0xf6097e…
06-15 23:57:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	125	90¢	$112	0xf41186…
06-15 18:21:31	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	69	95¢	$65	0x6ff96f…
06-15 16:29:42	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	69	98¢	$68	0xd94b40…
06-14 07:13:09	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	386	6¢	$22	0x55c5c0…
06-12 22:26:52	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	49	2¢	$1	0xce10f2…
06-12 22:26:51	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	37	2¢	$1	0xf4ffbf…
06-12 22:26:51	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	12	2¢	$0	0xec03b7…
06-12 22:18:12	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0xa13401…
06-12 19:53:13	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	68	2¢	$1	0x263e71…
06-12 17:25:57	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	196	2¢	$3	0xed5e74…
06-12 09:25:31	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0x1ab36e…
06-12 08:00:27	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0xa0b6fe…
06-12 08:00:16	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0xcd9cad…
06-07 20:13:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	102	6¢	$6	0xdb1c9e…
06-05 21:39:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xaa3548…
06-05 21:39:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	49	5¢	$3	0x58ef23…
06-05 21:39:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	107	6¢	$6	0x12b105…
06-05 19:49:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	358	3¢	$10	0x46f833…
06-05 12:49:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	102	49¢	$50	0x9d8817…
06-05 12:49:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	60	49¢	$29	0x264462…
06-05 10:44:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	99	49¢	$49	0x315fee…
06-05 10:44:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	63	49¢	$31	0x0f398d…
06-05 08:41:27	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0x72b0a4…
06-05 08:41:27	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	33	98¢	$32	0x033a8e…
06-05 08:41:25	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0x767eae…
06-05 04:52:57	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	81	98¢	$80	0x4a24ae…
06-04 21:57:28	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	272	2¢	$5	0xe8c70d…
06-04 21:57:28	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	86	2¢	$2	0x08439c…
06-04 20:08:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	358	2¢	$6	0x8d574d…
06-03 01:12:35	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	4	6¢	$0	0xe920e3…
06-03 01:12:35	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	47	6¢	$3	0x1e0417…
06-02 22:41:39	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	51	5¢	$2	0xe8f7e7…
06-02 00:21:45	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	97	96¢	$93	0xfc5220…
06-01 18:57:15	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	97	96¢	$93	0xf9951d…
06-01 14:12:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	203	4¢	$8	0xd975f5…
06-01 12:47:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	17	3¢	$1	0x789058…
06-01 12:47:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xd57fbb…
06-01 12:47:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	86	3¢	$3	0x39cf34…
05-27 15:26:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xe9490e…
05-25 23:35:03	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	113	87¢	$98	0x9cb203…
05-25 23:34:16	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	113	88¢	$99	0x26c05d…
05-24 01:27:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	105	85¢	$90	0x790ceb…
05-24 00:19:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	107	85¢	$90	0x90427f…
05-23 16:25:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	97	9¢	$8	0x1a2d38…
05-23 15:16:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	97	8¢	$7	0x173230…
04-24 16:29:38	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	85	56¢	$47	0x28c6c5…
04-24 16:29:38	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	36	56¢	$20	0x165dad…
04-24 11:37:08	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	121	49¢	$59	0xbc6809…
04-16 16:01:02	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	580	99¢	$572	0xbc5cca…
04-16 12:16:28	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	580	98¢	$571	0x3a162d…
04-15 08:56:48	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	636	99¢	$628	0x1f7eb1…
04-15 06:53:58	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	636	99¢	$628	0xb772f8…
03-10 18:11:17	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	Yes	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0xa202dd…
03-10 18:00:33	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	Yes	SELL	323	100¢	$323	0xc1193b…
03-10 15:01:19	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	Yes	BUY	44	53¢	$23	0xdfc46d…
03-10 15:01:19	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	Yes	BUY	188	53¢	$100	0x7793c8…
03-10 15:01:19	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	Yes	BUY	188	53¢	$100	0x46e93e…
03-10 10:04:31	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 380 399	Yes	SELL	51	13¢	$7	0x5cae36…
03-10 10:03:53	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 380 399	Yes	SELL	363	13¢	$48	0xc84f22…
03-10 06:34:23	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 380 399	Yes	BUY	414	9¢	$36	0x65c679…
03-10 01:26:57	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 260 279	No	SELL	236	97¢	$228	0xcd27ba…
03-10 01:26:11	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 260 279	No	BUY	236	97¢	$228	0x8d93f0…
03-09 21:18:11	will trn lu quang be the next prime minister of vietnam	No	SELL	226	92¢	$207	0x203d2b…
03-09 18:48:37	will trn lu quang be the next prime minister of vietnam	No	BUY	226	91¢	$207	0x4217c3…
03-07 11:09:25	will jordan spieth win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x9e2079…
03-07 10:28:41	will jordan spieth win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	436	3¢	$12	0x4b836f…
03-07 09:28:35	will jordan spieth win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	461	3¢	$12	0x00fac7…