Glum-Surprise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

+$67

Hit rate

0.3%

Resolved

Trades

260

lifetime

Volume

$18.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$70

Open exposure

$706

5 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-17 01:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

40% — —

Other

39% 33% +$0

Sports

21% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	-688	$-456	55¢	$-375	+$81	06-15 04:32
Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	-157	$-144	99¢	$-155	$-11	06-07 17:50
Will Alberta join the US?	No	-129	$-124	97¢	$-125	$-1	06-06 03:17
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+676	$41	6¢	$42	+$0	06-13 13:46
Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	+292	$12	3¢	$10	$-2	06-02 09:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	18	$1.9K	1,041	1,041	+0	No	$-0	04-26 10:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	21	$1.8K	1,271	1,959	-688	open	—	06-15 04:32
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	11	$1.3K	643	643	+0	open	—	04-27 09:12
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	13	$1.2K	1,637	1,634	+3	open	—	05-30 10:44
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$938	482	482	+0	No	$-0	04-26 05:59
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	10	$864	1,462	1,462	+0	open	—	06-07 01:06
Iran leadership change by June 30?	7	$822	353	510	-157	open	—	06-07 17:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	7	$727	677	677	+0	open	—	05-24 20:46
Will Alberta join the US?	11	$658	1,513	1,350	+163	open	—	06-06 03:17
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	9	$603	369	369	+0	open	—	06-08 23:57
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	5	$580	302	302	+0	open	—	04-27 01:39
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	6	$450	242	242	+0	open	—	06-17 01:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$441	507	507	+0	open	—	05-30 02:53
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	4	$436	559	559	+0	open	—	06-07 23:37
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	6	$407	207	207	+0	No	+$0	04-18 15:08
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	12	$396	913	913	+0	open	—	06-10 01:15
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$370	196	196	+0	open	—	05-29 02:44
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	4	$353	186	186	+0	open	—	05-24 06:30
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$352	326	326	+0	open	—	04-20 19:03
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	3	$342	173	173	+0	open	—	05-28 02:45
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$339	210	210	+0	open	—	03-17 18:12
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$336	170	170	+0	No	+$0	03-29 16:41
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7	$332	189	189	+0	open	—	04-22 08:30
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	4	$304	154	154	+0	open	—	04-13 04:03
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$303	155	155	+0	open	—	04-14 03:47
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	3	$302	153	153	+0	open	—	04-20 00:03
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	3	$295	161	161	+0	open	—	06-14 17:18
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$250	132	132	+0	open	—	04-10 17:57
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	12	$191	735	735	+0	open	—	05-24 11:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$190	99	99	+0	open	—	05-17 03:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-17 01:10:29	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	81	93¢	$75	0x98b118…
06-17 01:10:29	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x6a03e3…
06-17 01:10:29	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	156	93¢	$145	0x40b8c3…
06-17 01:08:56	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	79	93¢	$73	0xe77591…
06-17 01:08:56	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	82	93¢	$76	0x388f52…
06-17 01:08:56	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	81	93¢	$75	0x0b9d2d…
06-15 04:32:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	32	65¢	$21	0xe9e039…
06-15 04:32:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	277	65¢	$180	0xb6d09b…
06-15 04:32:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	38	65¢	$25	0x82653f…
06-14 22:53:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	74	61¢	$45	0xa793cf…
06-14 22:53:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	295	61¢	$180	0x0be9d6…
06-14 20:52:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	369	53¢	$196	0x308e13…
06-14 17:18:33	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	161	92¢	$148	0xc30e5c…
06-14 15:31:07	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	68	92¢	$62	0x477f31…
06-14 15:31:07	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	93	92¢	$86	0x211634…
06-13 19:51:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	193	6¢	$12	0xef4411…
06-13 19:51:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	118	6¢	$8	0xedc957…
06-13 18:26:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	172	6¢	$11	0xad204d…
06-13 18:26:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	6¢	$6	0x907a12…
06-13 18:26:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	6¢	$3	0x512a86…
06-13 13:46:55	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	676	6¢	$41	0xd7d5ef…
06-13 00:20:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	349	53¢	$185	0x8f02c2…
06-12 21:56:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	81	53¢	$43	0xd3e49d…
06-12 21:56:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0xa9f95f…
06-12 21:56:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	77	53¢	$41	0x50c3dd…
06-12 21:56:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	184	53¢	$98	0x041a9b…
06-12 08:02:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0xa5d4f6…
06-12 08:02:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	238	45¢	$107	0x935041…
06-12 07:57:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	54	44¢	$24	0x642511…
06-12 07:57:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	192	44¢	$84	0x589781…
06-10 23:10:13	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	509	3¢	$16	0x11a72e…
06-10 20:46:40	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	509	4¢	$20	0x83d861…
06-10 14:40:16	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	159	4¢	$7	0xcbf453…
06-10 14:40:16	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	175	4¢	$8	0x802b08…
06-10 14:40:16	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	176	4¢	$8	0x3f9672…
06-10 14:40:16	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	102	4¢	$5	0x3856b0…
06-10 14:40:16	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	5¢	$3	0x082a77…
06-10 11:16:39	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	678	5¢	$32	0x28cbe3…
06-10 01:15:07	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	189	2¢	$3	0xceba4d…
06-10 01:15:07	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	165	2¢	$3	0x7aff2d…
06-09 21:59:34	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	354	2¢	$6	0x89d11a…
06-08 23:57:27	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	58	2¢	$1	0xd53e97…
06-08 22:32:33	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	58	2¢	$1	0x0b649b…
06-07 23:37:24	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0xf2ca9a…
06-07 23:37:10	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	285	39¢	$111	0xdb9d35…
06-07 23:37:10	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	272	39¢	$106	0x97fa5d…
06-07 21:59:43	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	559	39¢	$218	0xc6ca27…
06-07 17:50:03	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	70	96¢	$67	0xdbfef6…
06-07 17:50:03	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	78	96¢	$75	0x4ff5ed…
06-07 14:40:27	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	148	96¢	$142	0xe99f24…
06-07 11:12:00	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x5303d4…
06-07 11:11:58	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	2¢	$1	0x424e87…
06-07 11:11:58	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$0	0x14e3d8…
06-07 11:11:57	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	302	2¢	$5	0xc9012b…
06-07 09:09:19	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	370	2¢	$6	0xc9f523…
06-07 01:06:27	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	187	19¢	$35	0xf50c99…
06-07 01:06:27	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	401	19¢	$75	0xbbe004…
06-06 21:46:54	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	588	19¢	$110	0x3de136…
06-06 18:21:46	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	292	1¢	$4	0xd82d6f…
06-06 16:26:18	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	292	1¢	$4	0x8c9ba0…
06-06 10:33:52	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	88	1¢	$1	0xaa70df…
06-06 09:00:54	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	88	1¢	$1	0x526d98…
06-06 03:17:34	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	228	95¢	$218	0x92198d…
06-06 02:14:45	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	228	95¢	$218	0x733995…
06-05 07:51:01	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	53	19¢	$10	0xef7390…
06-05 04:43:27	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xcbe0a2…
06-04 15:59:16	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	45	82¢	$37	0xaec77f…
06-04 15:59:15	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	197	82¢	$161	0x6acc5d…
06-04 12:38:39	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	242	80¢	$194	0xe7bbe3…
06-04 01:11:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	579	20¢	$115	0x22369c…
06-04 01:04:06	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	579	20¢	$116	0x450421…
06-03 11:00:09	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	44	99¢	$43	0x92c6f4…
06-03 11:00:09	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	145	99¢	$143	0x8f034b…
06-03 06:20:17	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	165	99¢	$163	0xca8edb…
06-03 06:20:17	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x9c3781…
06-03 01:38:15	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0xb3b754…
06-03 01:38:15	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	201	95¢	$191	0x220b4e…
06-02 21:50:40	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	205	96¢	$197	0x6733f2…
06-02 09:11:31	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	292	4¢	$13	0xf7b233…
06-02 04:14:58	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	73	96¢	$70	0x6d22c1…
06-02 04:14:58	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	56	96¢	$54	0x17f57a…
06-01 01:30:20	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x6d36b8…
06-01 01:29:58	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	46	1¢	$1	0xfb41b5…
06-01 01:29:58	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	114	1¢	$2	0x0bfd98…
06-01 00:46:25	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	36	1¢	$1	0x482d8f…
06-01 00:46:23	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	144	1¢	$2	0x378077…
05-31 16:28:45	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	158	97¢	$154	0x6eebf9…
05-31 11:59:04	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	158	97¢	$153	0x15cd30…
05-31 10:28:39	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	553	4¢	$24	0x7dfae8…
05-31 07:13:07	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	553	4¢	$24	0x94a0b8…
05-31 05:15:42	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	110	4¢	$5	0xd51956…
05-31 05:15:42	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	166	4¢	$7	0xb56c6f…
05-31 05:15:42	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	164	4¢	$7	0x06cd6b…
05-31 01:52:03	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	440	4¢	$19	0x8db270…
05-30 21:58:20	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	125	2¢	$2	0xa669d0…
05-30 21:58:20	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	476	2¢	$9	0x0d3ddf…
05-30 19:56:53	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	601	2¢	$11	0x11eba9…
05-30 13:07:53	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	157	93¢	$146	0xa0876a…
05-30 10:44:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	201	5¢	$10	0x56fc95…
05-30 10:44:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	189	5¢	$9	0x4c96da…