Composed-Intervention-Representation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

60.6%

Resolved

Trades

267

lifetime

Volume

$443

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

7 positions

First seen

2026-05-26

last 10-27 19:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Sports

36% 25% +$4

Other

35% 20% -$3

Politics

20% 0% -$1

Crypto

5% — —

Tech

3% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	+3	$0	6¢	$0	+$0	08-27 07:49
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?	Yes	+2	$0	4¢	$0	+$0	08-25 11:35
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+8	$0	1¢	$0	+$0	10-27 19:28
natoeu troops fighting in ukraine by december 31 2026	Yes	+1	$0	5¢	$0	$0	08-06 19:15
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1	$2	4¢	$0	-$2	08-06 19:15
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1	$0	2¢	$0	$0	09-01 03:28
Human moon landing in 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	09-13 07:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	21	$92	110	110	+0	No	+$47	06-04 09:33
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	5	$69	69	69	+0	cancelled	-$1	07-12 18:54
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	37	$39	230	0	+230	No	-$39	06-20 19:00
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$10	99	99	+0	open	—	08-06 19:15
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	4	$10	10	10	+0	cancelled	$0	07-12 18:59
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	4	$10	10	10	+0	cancelled	$0	06-22 06:18
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	4	$10	10	10	+0	cancelled	$0	06-22 06:18
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	5	$8	99	98	+1	open	—	08-06 19:15
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	2	$5	5	5	+0	cancelled	$0	07-12 18:59
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	2	$5	5	5	+0	cancelled	$0	07-12 18:58
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?	2	$5	5	5	+0	cancelled	$0	07-12 18:58
another pandemic before gta vi	2	$5	5	5	+0	cancelled	$0	07-12 18:58
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$5	92	0	+92	No	-$5	06-20 20:45
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	2	$5	33	33	+0	open	—	08-15 07:28
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	2	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$1	08-06 19:15
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$4	87	85	+2	No	+$2	06-20 16:55
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	4	$4	56	56	+0	open	—	09-20 23:28
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	4	$3	26	26	+0	open	—	09-13 07:29
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	3	$3	16	13	+3	open	—	08-27 07:49
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$3	23	23	+0	open	—	08-06 19:15
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	2	$3	5	5	+0	open	—	08-06 19:15
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$3	36	0	+36	No	-$3	06-20 20:45
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$3	31	31	+0	No	-$1	06-29 17:54
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	6	$3	252	244	+8	open	—	10-27 19:28
will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	2	$3	5	5	+0	open	—	08-06 19:15
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?	4	$3	27	25	+2	open	—	08-25 11:35
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$3	10	10	+0	open	—	08-06 19:15
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$3	11	11	+0	open	—	08-06 19:15
Stripe IPO before 2027?	2	$3	36	36	+0	open	—	09-14 11:28
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?	5	$3	34	34	+0	No	-$2	07-22 20:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 19:28:48	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0xcb68b9…
10-27 15:28:48	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0x8063f0…
10-27 11:28:47	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	31	1¢	$0	0x88ff62…
10-27 03:28:51	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	63	1¢	$0	0x7f1ed7…
10-26 23:28:47	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	126	1¢	$1	0x3e8f09…
10-26 19:28:47	Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	27	3¢	$1	0x28ecdd…
10-25 07:28:48	Epic Games IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	48	1¢	$1	0x5e6062…
10-25 07:28:47	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	252	0¢	$1	0xb175db…
10-25 05:07:41	Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0xf45dd5…
10-25 05:07:38	Epic Games IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	3¢	$1	0xcdebf6…
10-25 05:07:35	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	252	0¢	$1	0xa118cd…
10-25 05:07:32	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	252	1¢	$1	0x32a4a4…
10-21 15:28:56	Ramp IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	55	2¢	$1	0xc57d5f…
10-21 15:28:54	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	SELL	55	2¢	$1	0xf8b6b4…
10-21 15:28:53	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	Yes	SELL	105	1¢	$1	0x961335…
10-21 15:28:50	Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	252	0¢	$1	0x64a3b6…
10-18 07:28:45	Deel IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	252	0¢	$1	0xd6a4a2…
10-18 05:05:38	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	Yes	BUY	105	1¢	$1	0x73b7de…
10-18 05:05:35	Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	252	0¢	$1	0xaac281…
10-18 05:05:30	Ramp IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0x8de38c…
10-18 05:05:27	Deel IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	252	1¢	$1	0xf6273d…
10-16 15:28:49	Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	115	1¢	$1	0x2278bc…
10-14 16:47:43	Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	252	0¢	$1	0x83abc3…
10-11 07:28:39	Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	43	1¢	$1	0x85c70b…
10-11 05:09:11	Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	252	0¢	$1	0x2895d3…
10-11 05:09:08	Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	115	1¢	$1	0xc8d92d…
10-11 05:09:05	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0xc9d569…
10-11 05:09:02	Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	43	3¢	$1	0x495c39…
10-10 15:28:45	Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	114	1¢	$1	0x35d293…
10-09 07:28:39	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x21d74f…
10-06 03:28:54	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	Yes	SELL	90	1¢	$1	0x4d003e…
10-06 03:28:52	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	105	1¢	$1	0x4eeb37…
10-05 15:28:40	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	1¢	$1	0x56e7bb…
10-04 11:28:40	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	3¢	$1	0x6e999e…
10-04 07:28:38	Databricks IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	42	1¢	$1	0x6f143f…
10-04 05:10:07	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0xfe3710…
10-04 05:10:02	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	105	1¢	$1	0x9e4075…
10-04 05:09:59	Databricks IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	42	3¢	$1	0xd8dc3d…
10-04 05:09:56	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	2¢	$1	0x35c40e…
09-27 23:29:32	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	4¢	$1	0xa9a2c4…
09-27 23:29:30	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	38	2¢	$1	0x3812ad…
09-27 23:29:29	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x4888c7…
09-27 23:29:27	Revolut IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	43	2¢	$1	0x9a6a1b…
09-27 23:29:26	Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0xcc8ba3…
09-27 23:29:24	Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	1¢	$1	0x437882…
09-27 05:08:15	Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	114	1¢	$1	0xa56c2b…
09-27 05:08:11	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x13aacd…
09-27 05:08:08	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0x55fed5…
09-27 05:08:05	Revolut IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	43	3¢	$1	0x519043…
09-27 03:28:39	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	96	1¢	$1	0x8588b0…
09-25 15:28:33	Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	28	2¢	$1	0x23c6b0…
09-23 11:28:37	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xe48f58…
09-22 19:28:34	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	Yes	SELL	34	1¢	$0	0x3ac2d3…
09-20 23:28:34	Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	1¢	$0	0x85e08c…
09-20 05:09:54	Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x8b8311…
09-20 05:09:22	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	96	1¢	$1	0x450545…
09-20 05:09:19	Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	1¢	$1	0x907c78…
09-20 05:09:15	Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	4¢	$1	0x78febe…
09-19 15:28:36	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	0¢	$0	0x8d5a19…
09-14 11:28:33	Stripe IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	36	4¢	$2	0xb11aca…
09-13 07:29:52	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	3¢	$1	0x93096d…
09-13 07:29:51	Human moon landing in 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	1¢	$1	0x763406…
09-13 05:17:15	Human moon landing in 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xceb2db…
09-13 05:15:18	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	6¢	$1	0xb764dc…
09-13 05:13:19	Human moon landing in 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	2¢	$1	0x508ba4…
09-13 05:12:54	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	1¢	$1	0x3a26ce…
09-13 05:12:46	Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0xf642d4…
09-12 23:28:33	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0x09618c…
09-10 19:28:33	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	2¢	$1	0xe00595…
09-06 05:15:06	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	9¢	$1	0x961165…
09-06 05:15:03	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	7¢	$1	0x157754…
09-06 05:14:58	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	Yes	BUY	34	4¢	$1	0xfe696b…
09-06 05:14:55	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x062b85…
09-02 23:59:33	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	120	0¢	$0	0x4a97e7…
09-01 03:28:36	Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0xaa302d…
08-30 05:12:45	Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x086eac…
08-30 05:11:39	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x783cb7…
08-30 05:11:36	Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x5721f0…
08-30 05:11:33	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x76d4e3…
08-30 05:11:31	Stripe IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xa00b5b…
08-29 00:47:07	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x24bd94…
08-27 07:49:30	Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0xe017c3…
08-27 07:43:33	Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0x1c35a5…
08-27 07:43:31	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	1¢	$0	0x6d3cb1…
08-25 11:35:34	Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xdedcf2…
08-25 11:35:15	Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?	Yes	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0xf44f22…
08-25 07:35:10	Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0x9bdc1d…
08-23 07:35:06	Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	3¢	$1	0x9cd1aa…
08-23 05:09:21	Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	5¢	$1	0x10ef6d…
08-23 05:08:25	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0x453304…
08-23 05:08:19	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xf0cd9a…
08-23 05:08:16	Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?	Yes	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0x54f9ed…
08-18 08:00:06	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	1¢	$1	0x7b7c2d…
08-17 05:14:34	Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0x300077…
08-17 05:13:27	Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0ba973…
08-17 05:13:24	Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x886893…
08-17 05:13:18	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	2¢	$2	0xd408df…
08-15 07:28:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0x0ae903…
08-15 07:28:45	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0xb76e29…
08-15 07:28:43	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	7¢	$2	0x67ccfc…