US defaults on debt by 2027?
open
Total volume
$127
Trades
24
Unique wallets
14
Liquidity
$5,898
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-04
last 06-14 20:16
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 1 | — | $1 | $1 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 4 | $2 | $1 | +$1 |
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 7 | $3 | $6 | $3 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | — | $1 | $1 |
| Median | 1 | — | $1 | $1 |
| Below median | 2 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| unranked | 6 | $3 | $6 | $3 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x3275…2b0a | Yes | +100 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-14 20:16 |
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | +100 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-14 20:16 |
| Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | +40 | $1 | $1 | 3 | 06-14 20:16 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +40 | $1 | $1 | 7 | 06-14 20:16 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | +37 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-14 20:16 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +34 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-14 20:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | +16 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 06-14 20:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b68…28c4 | No | +6 | $6 | $6 | 4 | 06-10 10:40 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-07 09:03 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-14 20:16:43 | Bruised-Inside 0x6d0f…95ea | Yes | SELL | 452 | 2¢ | $8 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 100 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | BUY | 7 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 34 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | (anonymous) 0x3275…2b0a | Yes | BUY | 100 | 2¢ | $2 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | (anonymous) 0xa0e1…3155 | No | SELL | 55 | 98¢ | $54 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 37 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | (anonymous) 0xbaee…8e8e | No | SELL | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-10 10:40:03 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x6d4e48… |
| 06-10 10:40:03 | (anonymous) 0x9b68…28c4 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x6d4e48… |
| 06-08 21:46:07 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9112fc… |
| 06-08 21:46:07 | (anonymous) 0x9b68…28c4 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x9112fc… |
| 06-07 09:03:54 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x3a576d… |
| 06-07 09:03:54 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x3a576d… |
| 06-07 09:00:34 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x5bdfc9… |
| 06-07 09:00:34 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x5bdfc9… |
| 06-04 21:52:24 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc4e323… |
| 06-04 21:52:24 | (anonymous) 0xc2c7…0b3d | Yes | SELL | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc4e323… |
| 06-04 17:09:24 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 3 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x3aeee0… |
| 06-04 17:09:24 | (anonymous) 0x9b68…28c4 | No | BUY | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x3aeee0… |
| 06-04 16:20:34 | (anonymous) 0x9b68…28c4 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xcf8fe0… |
| 06-04 16:20:34 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcf8fe0… |