US defaults on debt by 2027?
open
Total volume
$1,047
Trades
86
Unique wallets
43
Liquidity
$5,898
Latest YES mid
3¢
Latest NO mid
97¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-04
last 07-27 06:40
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 3 | — | $47 | $47 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $3 | $1 | +$2 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $3 | $6 | $3 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 27 | $6 | $341 | $334 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | $1 | $1 |
| Median | 2 | — | $47 | $47 |
| Below median | 4 | $1 | $48 | $47 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $2 | $85 | $83 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| unranked | 26 | $5 | $213 | $208 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x6825…735c | No | +216 | $207 | $207 | 3 | 07-24 23:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x3275…2b0a | Yes | +100 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-14 20:16 |
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | +100 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-14 20:16 |
| Content-Inside 0x2f9f…aa6e | No | +88 | $85 | $85 | 2 | 07-01 14:41 |
| These-Blouse 0x790b…0050 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-03 21:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | +48 | $46 | $46 | 1 | 07-27 06:40 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | +37 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-14 20:16 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +34 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-14 20:16 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +31 | $0 | $3 | 11 | 07-23 03:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x22e0…3adb | Yes | +25 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-16 08:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x9de8…108c | Yes | +15 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-16 22:30 |
| Quixotic-Feed 0x1fc9…ace5 | Yes | +10 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-07 03:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | +4 | $0 | $2 | 10 | 07-07 03:20 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 06:40:55 | Stunning-Clasp 0x718c…6355 | No | SELL | 18 | 97¢ | $17 | 0xfd222d… |
| 07-27 06:40:55 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 48 | 97¢ | $46 | 0xfd222d… |
| 07-27 06:40:55 | (anonymous) 0x6bc4…412b | No | SELL | 30 | 97¢ | $29 | 0xfd222d… |
| 07-24 23:15:49 | (anonymous) 0x21c8…f616 | No | SELL | 35 | 97¢ | $34 | 0x48b120… |
| 07-24 23:15:49 | (anonymous) 0xb21b…2c32 | No | SELL | 14 | 97¢ | $13 | 0x48b120… |
| 07-24 23:15:49 | (anonymous) 0x6825…735c | No | BUY | 48 | 97¢ | $47 | 0x48b120… |
| 07-24 22:58:00 | (anonymous) 0x6368…b88b | No | SELL | 51 | 96¢ | $49 | 0xe1c518… |
| 07-24 22:58:00 | (anonymous) 0x6825…735c | No | BUY | 87 | 96¢ | $84 | 0xe1c518… |
| 07-24 22:58:00 | Generous-Boulevard 0xf31a…5d22 | No | SELL | 36 | 96¢ | $35 | 0xe1c518… |
| 07-24 22:43:55 | (anonymous) 0x6825…735c | No | BUY | 80 | 96¢ | $77 | 0x9954eb… |
| 07-24 22:43:55 | (anonymous) 0x694a…4f7e | No | SELL | 65 | 96¢ | $62 | 0x9954eb… |
| 07-24 22:43:55 | (anonymous) 0x3359…dc28 | No | SELL | 15 | 96¢ | $14 | 0x9954eb… |
| 07-23 03:07:36 | Serious-Granddaughter 0x2e6b…1e93 | No | SELL | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x75846f… |
| 07-23 03:07:36 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 2 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x75846f… |
| 07-19 21:19:39 | (anonymous) 0xd7ed…cf92 | No | SELL | 60 | 96¢ | $58 | 0x6fa2af… |
| 07-19 21:19:39 | Glaring-Pain 0xbeff…08e4 | Yes | SELL | 89 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x6fa2af… |
| 07-19 21:19:39 | (anonymous) 0x6368…b88b | No | SELL | 29 | 96¢ | $27 | 0x6fa2af… |
| 07-19 03:25:27 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 7 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x9bfb5f… |
| 07-19 03:25:27 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 7 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x9bfb5f… |
| 07-16 08:44:34 | (anonymous) 0x22e0…3adb | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf6fe5b… |
| 07-16 08:44:34 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 12 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xf6fe5b… |
| 07-16 08:44:34 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xf6fe5b… |
| 07-13 09:36:17 | (anonymous) 0x6368…b88b | No | SELL | 14 | 97¢ | $13 | 0xd83c5c… |
| 07-13 09:36:17 | (anonymous) 0xd768…a4b9 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xd83c5c… |
| 07-11 20:21:02 | (anonymous) 0x9b68…28c4 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x3aa865… |
| 07-11 20:21:02 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x3aa865… |
| 07-07 03:20:11 | Quixotic-Feed 0x1fc9…ace5 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xccc782… |
| 07-07 03:20:11 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xccc782… |
| 07-07 03:20:11 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xccc782… |
| 07-07 03:07:05 | Content-Inside 0x2f9f…aa6e | Yes | SELL | 47 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x559ca1… |
| 07-07 03:07:05 | (anonymous) 0xf19a…0f43 | No | SELL | 34 | 97¢ | $32 | 0x559ca1… |
| 07-07 03:07:05 | (anonymous) 0x6368…b88b | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0x559ca1… |
| 07-07 03:07:05 | (anonymous) 0xeb24…5d73 | No | SELL | 6 | 97¢ | $6 | 0x559ca1… |
| 07-05 01:52:47 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x9545e7… |
| 07-05 01:52:47 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9545e7… |
| 07-05 01:52:47 | Used-Jack 0xea4d…c654 | No | SELL | 19 | 97¢ | $18 | 0x9545e7… |
| 07-03 21:07:44 | These-Blouse 0x790b…0050 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0xec7bbf… |
| 07-03 21:07:44 | (anonymous) 0x68ac…e80e | No | SELL | 41 | 97¢ | $40 | 0xec7bbf… |
| 07-03 21:07:44 | (anonymous) 0xeb24…5d73 | No | SELL | 9 | 97¢ | $9 | 0xec7bbf… |
| 07-01 14:41:07 | Content-Inside 0x2f9f…aa6e | No | BUY | 49 | 97¢ | $47 | 0xbecc9f… |
| 07-01 14:41:07 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xbecc9f… |
| 07-01 14:41:07 | (anonymous) 0x7034…5fa8 | No | SELL | 40 | 97¢ | $39 | 0xbecc9f… |
| 07-01 14:40:49 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x8bb704… |
| 07-01 14:40:49 | Content-Inside 0x2f9f…aa6e | No | BUY | 39 | 96¢ | $38 | 0x8bb704… |
| 07-01 14:40:49 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 14 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x8bb704… |
| 06-30 08:42:34 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xa2d8ec… |
| 06-30 08:42:34 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xa2d8ec… |
| 06-30 08:42:29 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xe74292… |
| 06-30 08:42:29 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xe74292… |
| 06-27 23:02:46 | Content-Inside 0x2f9f…aa6e | Yes | BUY | 35 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xbdd277… |
| 06-27 23:02:46 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xbdd277… |
| 06-27 23:02:46 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xbdd277… |
| 06-27 23:02:46 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xbdd277… |
| 06-27 23:02:37 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xfede8b… |
| 06-27 23:02:37 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xfede8b… |
| 06-27 23:02:37 | Content-Inside 0x2f9f…aa6e | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xfede8b… |
| 06-26 21:40:28 | (anonymous) 0x604b…da94 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $2 | 0x5a7c8d… |
| 06-26 21:40:28 | Imaginary-Skullcap 0x46e7…f51e | Yes | SELL | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x5a7c8d… |
| 06-17 15:27:40 | (anonymous) 0xa176…cc17 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xe316e5… |
| 06-17 15:27:40 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xe316e5… |
| 06-16 22:30:43 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 15 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x4e4cdc… |
| 06-16 22:30:43 | (anonymous) 0x9de8…108c | Yes | BUY | 15 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x4e4cdc… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | (anonymous) 0x3275…2b0a | Yes | BUY | 100 | 2¢ | $2 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 34 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | BUY | 7 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | (anonymous) 0xa0e1…3155 | No | SELL | 55 | 98¢ | $54 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 37 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 100 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | (anonymous) 0xbaee…8e8e | No | SELL | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-14 20:16:43 | Bruised-Inside 0x6d0f…95ea | Yes | SELL | 452 | 2¢ | $8 | 0xde031f… |
| 06-10 10:40:03 | (anonymous) 0x9b68…28c4 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x6d4e48… |
| 06-10 10:40:03 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x6d4e48… |
| 06-08 21:46:07 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9112fc… |
| 06-08 21:46:07 | (anonymous) 0x9b68…28c4 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x9112fc… |
| 06-07 09:03:54 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x3a576d… |
| 06-07 09:03:54 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x3a576d… |
| 06-07 09:00:34 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x5bdfc9… |
| 06-07 09:00:34 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x5bdfc9… |
| 06-04 21:52:24 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc4e323… |
| 06-04 21:52:24 | (anonymous) 0xc2c7…0b3d | Yes | SELL | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc4e323… |
| 06-04 17:09:24 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 3 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x3aeee0… |
| 06-04 17:09:24 | (anonymous) 0x9b68…28c4 | No | BUY | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x3aeee0… |
| 06-04 16:20:34 | (anonymous) 0x9b68…28c4 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xcf8fe0… |
| 06-04 16:20:34 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcf8fe0… |