Defiant-Competence-Initiative — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$373.7K

Unrealized P&L

+$69.1K

Hit rate

71.4%

Resolved

299

Trades

50,455

lifetime

Volume

$10.7M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$212

Open exposure

$39.7K

17 positions

First seen

2026-06-02

last 10-29 08:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 77 days

Categories

Other

44% 37% -$71,864

Politics

38% 37% +$495,260

Sports

10% 42% -$16,620

Tech

4% 32% -$26,589

Crypto

3% 8% -$6,497

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 106 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	+21,981	-$30,737	94¢	$20.6K	+$51,290	10-28 05:15
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+10,375	$6,070	56¢	$5.9K	-$208	06-10 01:28
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+9,679	$6,485	54¢	$5.2K	-$1,307	08-27 16:34
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	+5,139	$1,524	59¢	$3.1K	+$1,531	08-27 18:19
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	+21,981	$2,450	6¢	$1.4K	-$1,021	08-26 20:17
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+1,624	$114	43¢	$694	+$581	06-03 04:54
Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+96,695	$677	1¢	$677	+$0	08-29 22:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	+9,960	$2,490	6¢	$548	-$1,942	08-25 19:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+4,762	$1,714	12¢	$548	-$1,167	08-25 19:55
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+637	$401	78¢	$494	+$93	06-25 20:01
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+670	-$1,867	64¢	$426	+$2,293	10-29 08:39
US x China Military clash before 2027?	Yes	+6,164	$308	2¢	$154	-$154	07-20 16:18
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2,005	$100	4¢	$71	-$29	07-20 16:18
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+4,463	$45	0¢	$13	-$31	07-01 18:20
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$18,650	86¢	$0	+$18,650	10-27 18:05
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+0	-$4,369	18¢	$0	+$4,369	08-06 15:59
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+0	$3,840	4¢	$0	-$3,840	08-24 01:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	159	$1.55M	1,505,856	878,420	+627,436	Yes	+$370,869	06-17 23:39
alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	8	$826.2K	600,000	227,000	+373,000	No	+$373	06-26 18:24
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	536	$577.7K	698,257	167,061	+531,196	Yes	+$31,794	06-09 23:10
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	1	$499.5K	500,000	0	+500,000	No	+$500	07-06 21:04
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$346.5K	328,948	20,000	+308,948	No	+$2,294	06-03 22:46
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	480	$336.0K	535,713	64,570	+471,143	No	-$5,441	06-09 23:12
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	231	$277.8K	627,624	627,624	+0	No	+$85,550	07-16 03:45
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	87	$253.5K	256,955	202,224	+54,731	Yes	-$69,780	07-29 17:52
dota2 ty ts8 2026 08 22 game2	44	$245.4K	216,327	201,862	+14,464	Team Spirit	+$27,320	08-23 04:10
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	30	$183.1K	183,325	0	+183,325	No	+$183	06-29 22:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	84	$170.2K	357,505	0	+357,505	No	+$37,307	09-01 04:34
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	101	$165.0K	198,185	72,736	+125,449	Yes	-$16,335	06-12 20:21
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	50	$157.3K	152,596	108,633	+43,962	open	—	10-28 05:15
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	10	$148.6K	202,537	43,034	+159,504	No	+$53,995	07-29 18:00
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?	73	$144.5K	145,806	84,900	+60,906	No	+$84,712	07-09 15:35
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner	1	$100.0K	200,000	0	+200,000	Lynn Vision	-$99,986	08-27 18:28
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	8	$99.9K	105,108	2,700	+102,408	No	+$2,547	07-13 19:23
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	44	$96.3K	100,000	0	+100,000	No	+$3,700	07-19 18:54
Fed rate hike in 2026?	79	$95.7K	195,100	60,000	+135,101	Yes	-$50,134	07-30 03:38
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	35	$95.5K	143,519	25,297	+118,222	No	+$42,181	07-23 17:28
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	40	$93.0K	61,420	61,420	+0	open	—	10-27 18:05
dota2 vsn2 ts8 2026 08 23	29	$92.8K	96,000	66,000	+30,000	Team Spirit	-$17,600	08-23 05:46
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	153	$91.9K	288,576	254,044	+34,532	No	-$31,458	06-30 17:51
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals	2	$91.3K	134,743	0	+134,743	Washington Nationals	+$43,465	08-27 17:29
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	107	$91.0K	261,721	0	+261,721	Yes	+$10,843	06-03 22:23
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$90.7K	255,817	0	+255,817	No	-$15	07-15 21:00
49ers vs. Raiders	1	$90.0K	150,000	0	+150,000	49ers	-$90,000	08-28 01:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	103	$88.5K	50,000	50,000	+0	Yes	+$5,514	06-14 23:22
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves	12	$86.9K	2,791,487	0	+2,791,487	Atlanta Braves	+$13,104	08-28 01:35
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	355	$86.0K	560,252	437,752	+122,499	No	-$3,737	07-19 09:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 08:39:25	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xc6366d…
10-29 08:11:25	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	64¢	$5	0x27fffb…
10-29 08:11:22	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	64¢	$256	0xb7a6ac…
10-29 07:12:49	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	64¢	$7	0xd8f58e…
10-29 06:01:23	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	64¢	$20	0xadff5f…
10-29 04:18:32	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	64¢	$4	0xef6831…
10-29 03:55:37	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	64¢	$10	0xb6ac1a…
10-29 03:18:37	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	64¢	$4	0x975814…
10-29 03:12:47	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	156	64¢	$100	0xc7d71e…
10-29 02:08:17	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	310	64¢	$198	0xc6fbe9…
10-29 01:48:28	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0xbef7a1…
10-28 10:43:40	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0xfdaf70…
10-28 10:37:23	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0xf83314…
10-28 10:25:25	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	64¢	$2	0x687b83…
10-28 09:53:25	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	64¢	$50	0x0185ef…
10-28 09:53:07	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	64¢	$50	0xa774dc…
10-28 08:57:56	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0x48f9cf…
10-28 08:16:13	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x218bb2…
10-28 08:14:10	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x9fb5b6…
10-28 08:13:52	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xf2d0d9…
10-28 08:11:35	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x183a9d…
10-28 08:11:04	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$2	0x962c2a…
10-28 07:47:26	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,131	64¢	$724	0xe9727a…
10-28 05:15:23	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	57	92¢	$53	0xd7e848…
10-27 21:18:20	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x655eb8…
10-27 21:02:18	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x7c4ff4…
10-27 21:02:14	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x6a1b07…
10-27 21:01:54	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0x822684…
10-27 20:38:54	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x8c5949…
10-27 20:37:51	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xa089c8…
10-27 19:43:50	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x1735ac…
10-27 19:43:26	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x330cfa…
10-27 19:27:00	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$2	0x7daf92…
10-27 19:26:54	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x05e97d…
10-27 19:22:06	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x81e2f6…
10-27 19:20:32	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x70d92e…
10-27 19:20:14	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x81d6af…
10-27 19:16:36	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	64¢	$2	0xbafd3a…
10-27 19:16:03	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x0560a2…
10-27 19:14:42	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	64¢	$33	0x37f4f8…
10-27 19:05:38	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,562	64¢	$1,000	0xe1bb8a…
10-27 18:05:27	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,612	80¢	$4,489	0xd42869…
10-27 10:57:29	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	650	80¢	$520	0xd768a5…
10-27 10:57:27	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,130	80¢	$904	0xb8e8bd…
10-27 09:08:05	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xd08e20…
10-27 08:25:00	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	188	80¢	$151	0x13fcf9…
10-27 08:19:57	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	400	80¢	$320	0x30cee6…
10-27 07:58:38	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	80	92¢	$74	0x4a25e6…
10-27 06:40:11	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	660	92¢	$607	0x433fdc…
10-27 06:40:08	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xc05f93…
10-27 06:40:08	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	539	92¢	$496	0x9daa44…
10-25 22:10:53	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	64¢	$8	0x0d0647…
10-25 20:18:33	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	64¢	$10	0x22a5c0…
10-25 18:55:26	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0x506165…
10-25 18:46:51	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	156	64¢	$100	0xa2d4e3…
10-25 16:11:00	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	64¢	$10	0xad9ad3…
10-25 16:03:15	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x3d7d9a…
10-25 15:37:09	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0x65c404…
10-25 14:39:11	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x5f75c4…
10-25 13:38:47	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	64¢	$20	0x2e1db2…
10-25 13:26:41	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	64¢	$2	0x5c4da5…
10-25 11:37:56	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0xfb7fb1…
10-25 05:28:02	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x478f28…
10-25 05:16:29	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,000	64¢	$1,280	0xa6fb1e…
10-25 04:51:09	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,000	64¢	$1,920	0x088570…
10-25 04:49:11	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	64¢	$10	0x3c24f5…
10-25 04:37:45	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	64¢	$640	0xff434d…
10-25 04:01:27	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x8fb798…
10-25 02:26:23	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x765131…
10-25 02:18:30	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	80¢	$1,600	0x244eb4…
10-25 02:18:23	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,125	64¢	$2,000	0xb21c73…
10-25 02:16:41	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	80¢	$80	0xfa1c7e…
10-24 23:53:54	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xe94898…
10-24 21:58:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3,865	83¢	$3,204	0x49a747…
10-24 21:57:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	380	83¢	$315	0x7f19d6…
10-24 21:56:26	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	135	83¢	$112	0xe33a36…
10-24 21:55:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0x328836…
10-24 21:55:20	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0x0d58c8…
10-24 21:53:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0x43972b…
10-24 21:52:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	400	83¢	$332	0x42f226…
10-24 21:52:41	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	362	83¢	$300	0x215137…
10-24 21:52:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	81	83¢	$67	0xbc7eac…
10-24 21:52:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	22	83¢	$18	0x1a99ac…
10-24 21:52:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	13	83¢	$11	0xf4e873…
10-24 21:52:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xb20fac…
10-24 21:52:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	83¢	$9	0x4182c2…
10-24 21:52:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	66	83¢	$55	0x853e82…
10-24 21:52:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	69	83¢	$57	0x373ba1…
10-24 21:51:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	13	83¢	$11	0x4e3b7a…
10-24 21:51:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	50	83¢	$41	0xba3e6c…
10-24 21:51:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	50	83¢	$41	0x762851…
10-24 21:51:20	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	132	83¢	$109	0x80b663…
10-24 21:50:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	30	83¢	$25	0xe326e1…
10-24 21:50:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	50	83¢	$41	0xc27e45…
10-24 21:50:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	250	83¢	$207	0x4a810a…
10-24 21:50:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	307	83¢	$254	0xf561db…
10-24 21:50:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	54	83¢	$45	0x514553…
10-24 21:50:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	603	83¢	$500	0x0842d2…
10-24 21:50:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x063f06…
10-24 21:50:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	65	83¢	$54	0xae5414…