Slight-Shoemaker — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.5%

Resolved

Trades

217

lifetime

Volume

$3.61K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-27

last 06-25 15:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

39% — —

Other

39% 0% $-0

Sports

22% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	9	$262	143	143	+0	open	—	06-25 15:14
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	13	$227	179	261	-82	open	—	06-06 18:50
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	5	$172	93	93	+0	No	+$0	04-25 03:31
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	15	$151	293	293	+0	open	—	06-08 22:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	6	$147	164	164	+0	open	—	06-11 10:56
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$135	223	223	+0	open	—	04-27 00:25
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$120	62	62	+0	open	—	04-23 20:04
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	10	$114	222	222	+0	open	—	05-28 02:17
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	6	$105	142	142	+0	open	—	06-12 17:22
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	3	$103	55	55	+0	open	—	06-02 14:18
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	4	$102	113	113	+0	open	—	06-05 13:42
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	2	$100	51	51	+0	open	—	06-09 23:44
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	6	$100	222	222	+0	open	—	04-26 09:01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	8	$98	123	123	+0	open	—	03-29 07:48
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	5	$96	196	196	+0	open	—	05-16 09:46
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	3	$96	50	50	+0	open	—	04-10 16:00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	3	$94	50	50	+0	open	—	04-20 13:41
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$94	48	48	+0	open	—	03-29 13:45
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$94	49	49	+0	open	—	04-20 19:54
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	8	$93	133	133	+0	open	—	04-26 16:37
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	3	$91	56	56	+0	open	—	06-10 13:04
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$89	116	116	+0	open	—	04-03 06:32
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$87	44	44	+0	No	+$0	04-07 22:46
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$85	43	43	+0	open	—	03-27 09:52
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$84	44	44	+0	open	—	05-23 17:39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	2	$84	43	43	+0	open	—	05-16 01:38
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	6	$72	103	103	+0	open	—	06-24 08:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$67	87	87	+0	open	—	05-29 21:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	2	$57	87	87	+0	open	—	06-18 12:59
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	4	$56	112	112	+0	open	—	06-10 03:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 15:14:22	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	42	92¢	$39	0x626a2e…
06-25 12:55:28	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	42	92¢	$39	0xaed9fb…
06-24 14:44:38	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	41	13¢	$5	0x5e8445…
06-24 14:44:38	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	37	13¢	$5	0x1b7903…
06-24 12:15:41	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	78	13¢	$10	0xedfd44…
06-24 08:37:31	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	64	4¢	$2	0xaa5111…
06-24 07:32:38	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	64	4¢	$2	0xdb5012…
06-23 06:16:08	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	41	14¢	$6	0xfb1b2c…
06-23 06:16:08	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	26	14¢	$4	0x327462…
06-23 04:43:14	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	67	14¢	$9	0xb4bbc9…
06-22 22:58:19	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	SELL	38	19¢	$7	0x917370…
06-22 21:01:14	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xc8477f…
06-22 21:00:37	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x59cd64…
06-20 19:01:04	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0xfd4da9…
06-20 19:01:04	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	18¢	$4	0x6282e0…
06-20 17:58:13	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	19¢	$2	0x89025e…
06-20 17:58:13	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	19¢	$3	0x5ab12f…
06-20 07:31:31	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	48	14¢	$7	0x18ad5e…
06-20 06:08:25	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x99eac6…
06-20 06:08:25	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x02c417…
06-19 08:37:26	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	147	11¢	$16	0xe4f3bb…
06-19 03:57:50	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	147	18¢	$26	0x84beed…
06-18 12:59:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	87	32¢	$28	0x52fdb8…
06-18 10:52:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	34¢	$30	0x31e58f…
06-18 06:05:31	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	51	91¢	$46	0x6a7b0b…
06-18 04:16:31	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	51	91¢	$46	0x6fa275…
06-17 19:14:56	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	34	91¢	$31	0xc64a94…
06-17 19:14:56	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0x034a83…
06-17 19:14:55	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0xc9cb10…
06-17 16:23:19	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	43	92¢	$40	0xf7c731…
06-17 16:23:19	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x1832fa…
06-17 01:08:31	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	32	12¢	$4	0x8433dd…
06-17 01:08:20	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	141	12¢	$17	0x50af9c…
06-17 01:05:53	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	173	12¢	$21	0xe64583…
06-13 05:57:46	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	38	86¢	$32	0x7320da…
06-13 05:57:46	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x367760…
06-13 04:20:46	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x758139…
06-13 04:20:46	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	38	86¢	$33	0x1e62f1…
06-12 23:09:09	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	6¢	$11	0x43173b…
06-12 17:22:28	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	SELL	90	2¢	$2	0x2e24d1…
06-12 15:55:04	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0xd4b5ea…
06-12 15:55:04	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	33	2¢	$1	0xbe875e…
06-12 15:55:04	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0x8f8176…
06-12 14:34:48	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0xe1f9c3…
06-12 12:17:57	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	52	98¢	$51	0x9be01a…
06-11 10:56:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x70b236…
06-11 02:05:28	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0xfbdc30…
06-10 23:22:15	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xf6a5a2…
06-10 13:04:33	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	8	81¢	$6	0x95c76b…
06-10 13:04:31	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	48	81¢	$39	0x1efea3…
06-10 08:53:36	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	56	81¢	$45	0xf36151…
06-10 03:49:13	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	SELL	13	24¢	$3	0xa5bfb4…
06-10 03:48:34	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	SELL	33	25¢	$8	0x65baef…
06-10 03:48:33	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	SELL	66	25¢	$16	0xe39ad8…
06-10 01:53:06	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	112	25¢	$28	0x9b82d5…
06-09 23:44:39	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0xdea917…
06-09 21:44:55	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xe2a90e…
06-09 15:45:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	112	45¢	$50	0xdb2a23…
06-09 13:31:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	45¢	$51	0x0a51fd…
06-08 22:38:06	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	44	98¢	$43	0x517f18…
06-08 15:46:42	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0x570ca9…
06-08 00:39:12	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xe609d4…
06-08 00:39:12	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	32	3¢	$1	0x74456a…
06-08 00:39:12	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	68	3¢	$2	0x18c902…
06-08 00:39:12	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	39	3¢	$1	0x090fde…
06-07 20:27:37	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	140	3¢	$4	0x067286…
06-07 17:55:00	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0xe7e162…
06-07 15:38:10	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x2dfd39…
06-07 01:30:18	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	51	4¢	$2	0x5d77c4…
06-06 23:33:24	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	36	5¢	$2	0xed3a49…
06-06 23:33:24	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x14d6be…
06-06 18:50:45	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0xaf4b78…
06-06 18:50:45	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	42	81¢	$34	0x69b6bc…
06-06 16:01:12	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	37	81¢	$30	0x863a0d…
06-06 16:01:10	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0x1ea6dc…
06-06 01:57:19	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	22¢	$15	0x2b7996…
06-05 21:34:00	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	22¢	$10	0xb6a2c9…
06-05 21:34:00	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x321ea0…
06-05 13:42:04	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	73	45¢	$33	0x9495c5…
06-05 13:42:04	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	23	45¢	$10	0x601c9a…
06-05 13:42:04	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	17	45¢	$8	0x4f7762…
06-05 11:43:04	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	113	45¢	$51	0x65a93f…
06-05 07:14:58	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	59	5¢	$3	0x0403b6…
06-05 03:49:27	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	59	5¢	$3	0xd98186…
06-04 16:05:09	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xbdb116…
06-04 16:05:09	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0xa2fcdb…
06-04 16:05:09	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x8aae14…
06-04 16:05:09	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	47	1¢	$1	0x77fff7…
06-04 16:05:09	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x7448c5…
06-04 16:05:09	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	58	1¢	$1	0x3553aa…
06-04 14:15:13	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	160	1¢	$2	0x81199d…
06-03 20:45:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	54	78¢	$42	0x0d935a…
06-03 20:45:16	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x5a4d4f…
06-03 16:11:37	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	41	78¢	$32	0xadbd51…
06-03 16:11:37	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	18	78¢	$14	0x1c1a83…
06-03 14:05:14	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	19	98¢	$19	0xec45b3…
06-03 10:01:36	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0xda996a…
06-03 04:22:22	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	17	23¢	$4	0x9d4a31…
06-03 04:22:22	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	55	23¢	$12	0x219566…
06-03 00:20:47	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	72	24¢	$17	0x8887cb…