Blaring-Backdrop — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$143.3K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.03K

Hit rate

75.2%

Resolved

1,093

Trades

153,257

lifetime

Volume

$17.3M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$113

Open exposure

$8.95K

30 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 08-25 01:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Politics

77% 56% +$110,712

Other

19% 60% +$28,902

Crypto

2% 47% +$5,231

Tech

1% 43% -$3,046

Sports

1% 63% +$1,537

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+1,291	$1,151	94¢	$1.2K	+$56	05-26 01:03
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+1,133	$268	86¢	$980	+$712	06-22 18:31
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	+835	$733	97¢	$809	+$76	05-04 10:18
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	+768	$714	97¢	$744	+$30	06-02 22:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	+645	$356	99¢	$637	+$281	06-18 11:53
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	-500	-$364	83¢	$-417	-$53	04-28 18:03
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+426	$308	90¢	$383	+$75	06-21 11:27
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	-442	-$345	82¢	$-361	-$16	04-28 18:22
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	-418	-$296	80¢	$-333	-$36	05-11 19:24
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	-305	-$131	96¢	$-292	-$162	04-28 21:55
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+342	$221	84¢	$289	+$68	06-29 05:36
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	-296	-$179	86¢	$-253	-$75	04-29 20:29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+243	$55	84¢	$206	+$150	06-04 21:34
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,199	$290	16¢	$186	-$104	05-29 03:38
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	+3,187	$561	6¢	$175	-$386	06-22 19:15
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+199	$271	86¢	$171	-$100	06-07 19:19
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+174	$411	94¢	$164	-$247	06-17 00:48
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	No	+159	$148	99¢	$157	+$10	06-04 05:34
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+1,520	$411	10¢	$152	-$259	06-21 11:27
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+1,746	$697	8¢	$142	-$555	06-10 08:23
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	+1,035	$722	14¢	$140	-$583	06-20 14:30
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+2,000	$300	6¢	$110	-$190	05-14 11:36
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	-300	-$147	34¢	$-103	+$44	05-01 17:20
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	-300	-$150	34¢	$-103	+$47	05-05 14:22
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	+2,835	$343	3¢	$89	-$254	05-22 22:37
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+1,291	$511	6¢	$84	-$427	06-15 07:44
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-500	-$31	15¢	$-73	-$42	04-28 22:35
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-500	-$18	14¢	$-68	-$49	04-30 18:44
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+575	$125	11¢	$60	-$65	06-24 12:34
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	-156	-$79	36¢	$-55	+$24	04-29 08:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3,439	$856.1K	1,046,530	1,046,530	+0	Yes	+$4,814	06-16 12:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2,281	$601.5K	641,276	638,143	+3,133	Yes	+$4,947	06-16 08:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1,201	$543.6K	500,623	500,623	-0	Yes	-$147	06-16 02:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	956	$454.9K	497,843	497,843	+0	No	+$3,724	06-01 00:04
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	1,804	$447.0K	444,821	444,821	+0	Yes	+$1,737	06-16 10:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	747	$415.2K	441,360	439,392	+1,969	No	+$1,510	05-27 02:22
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	2,626	$345.6K	350,468	345,801	+4,667	Yes	+$3,699	06-21 05:11
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	5,973	$298.4K	334,339	331,179	+3,160	No	+$2,769	05-31 15:44
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	1,167	$292.5K	302,629	301,749	+881	No	+$2,019	06-06 09:34
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2,594	$287.1K	303,617	297,333	+6,284	Yes	+$690	06-15 02:46
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	2,688	$262.1K	268,736	260,059	+8,677	Yes	+$2,865	06-14 21:57
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	6,588	$261.8K	284,920	284,565	+355	Yes	+$3,208	06-07 23:11
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	1,511	$238.5K	220,752	220,752	+0	Yes	+$1,381	06-14 21:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1,452	$229.6K	354,803	352,807	+1,996	No	+$466	05-29 20:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1,018	$226.7K	241,044	241,075	-32	No	+$1,543	06-20 13:30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	1,309	$224.3K	252,269	247,654	+4,614	No	-$1,359	06-22 02:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1,339	$221.2K	225,049	220,903	+4,146	No	+$1,568	06-22 21:01
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	1,565	$203.8K	187,326	179,154	+8,172	Yes	-$382	06-15 02:45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	1,434	$192.8K	203,520	199,615	+3,905	No	+$2,980	05-31 20:43
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	1,002	$191.2K	287,713	285,966	+1,747	No	+$1,646	05-26 23:45
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	891	$184.7K	195,856	195,856	+0	No	-$102	06-01 01:35
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2,868	$182.6K	209,640	209,335	+305	No	-$987	05-31 23:48
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2,137	$159.8K	199,385	195,552	+3,833	No	+$1,097	05-31 15:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	663	$158.8K	139,163	139,163	+0	open	—	06-23 07:02
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	1,831	$156.2K	190,334	190,334	+0	Yes	+$2,417	06-21 10:49
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	933	$154.4K	153,056	153,056	+0	No	+$1,308	06-08 00:13
iran closes its airspace by june 15	4,503	$149.8K	176,317	175,716	+601	Yes	+$2,552	06-07 23:11
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	1,382	$145.2K	180,100	179,606	+493	No	+$1,243	06-14 21:24
iran closes its airspace by june 8	899	$141.8K	194,348	194,348	+0	Yes	+$1,664	06-07 23:11
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	1,390	$135.3K	127,925	127,423	+502	Yes	+$950	06-21 00:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-25 01:09:30	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	1,920	98¢	$1,878	0xf61313…
08-24 21:30:15	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	349	84¢	$293	0x85879e…
08-24 19:51:09	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	80	98¢	$78	0xfc2504…
08-24 18:44:48	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	292	84¢	$246	0x3b0a9b…
08-24 17:58:46	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	991	84¢	$832	0x2f2ebf…
06-29 05:36:43	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	100	84¢	$84	0xd65bbb…
06-27 03:09:35	Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xed22b6…
06-27 01:17:31	Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	19	4¢	$1	0xf9c346…
06-26 19:34:41	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x66bc57…
06-26 19:22:53	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x64312f…
06-26 19:22:53	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x1c020c…
06-26 19:22:11	Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	500	97¢	$483	0x6011af…
06-26 19:22:10	Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	328	99¢	$324	0x8f687b…
06-26 18:56:37	Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xaf2a74…
06-26 18:56:35	Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x2a4c1f…
06-26 16:01:55	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	153	12¢	$18	0x817ce1…
06-26 14:14:06	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x38dccc…
06-25 23:02:32	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	80	37¢	$29	0xab5f0e…
06-25 23:02:20	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x4c7e96…
06-25 23:01:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	286	37¢	$106	0x18f555…
06-25 23:00:32	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x37ae35…
06-25 22:59:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	445	37¢	$165	0xb210d3…
06-25 22:13:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0xa2b893…
06-25 20:27:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	55	37¢	$20	0xe8d81a…
06-25 20:26:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0xc4796e…
06-25 20:26:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	61	38¢	$23	0x87d69f…
06-25 20:26:04	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	96	38¢	$36	0x6dfc38…
06-25 16:43:29	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	119	11¢	$13	0xf5856b…
06-25 16:43:28	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	298	11¢	$32	0x40fd74…
06-25 16:17:05	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xe4a26e…
06-25 16:15:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xc1584e…
06-25 14:53:56	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	80	12¢	$10	0x91d269…
06-25 14:53:55	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	80	12¢	$10	0x3f6636…
06-25 14:45:44	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	145	16¢	$23	0x11830b…
06-25 13:33:37	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	23	22¢	$5	0xae0ca4…
06-25 13:33:28	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0x80f51f…
06-25 13:33:26	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xc1e4d6…
06-25 13:33:26	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0x692363…
06-25 12:37:07	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0xe1cac0…
06-25 08:20:53	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	SELL	8	44¢	$3	0x47ae94…
06-24 23:40:17	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0xbe7631…
06-24 20:53:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	3,000	90¢	$2,700	0x5f4539…
06-24 20:37:50	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	11	23¢	$2	0xcda400…
06-24 20:37:49	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	54	23¢	$12	0xc2a515…
06-24 20:36:13	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xbfa376…
06-24 20:35:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	70	36¢	$25	0x2e7a19…
06-24 20:34:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	39	35¢	$14	0x8fea96…
06-24 20:32:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	13	35¢	$5	0xea4d92…
06-24 20:15:35	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	38	27¢	$10	0xbcbab2…
06-24 20:14:37	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	37	32¢	$12	0xc30a94…
06-24 20:10:13	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	49	35¢	$17	0xdf009f…
06-24 20:02:53	Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	60	68¢	$41	0xe9e9bb…
06-24 19:59:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	71	34¢	$24	0xf7b47f…
06-24 19:59:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	56	34¢	$19	0x537d5d…
06-24 19:52:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	15	34¢	$5	0xd0aa69…
06-24 19:21:22	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0xc41aaa…
06-24 18:57:47	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	93	34¢	$32	0x2f9437…
06-24 18:57:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	22	34¢	$7	0x86a8a6…
06-24 17:16:35	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0xb11e72…
06-24 17:15:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x76c381…
06-24 15:25:44	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	42	33¢	$14	0xae55a1…
06-24 14:35:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	55	33¢	$18	0xb1a786…
06-24 12:34:05	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,425	15¢	$364	0x43c3d3…
06-24 12:23:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	353	32¢	$113	0x50cf0a…
06-24 12:16:22	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	809	52¢	$420	0x6b3be6…
06-24 11:55:59	us x china tariff agreement by june 30	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0x9599e0…
06-24 11:55:59	us x china tariff agreement by june 30	Yes	SELL	170	1¢	$1	0x744684…
06-24 11:47:50	us x china tariff agreement by june 30	Yes	SELL	26	1¢	$0	0xd7d0fb…
06-24 11:13:46	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x7f9510…
06-24 10:44:56	us x china tariff agreement by june 30	Yes	SELL	36	1¢	$0	0xab7ddb…
06-24 10:44:56	us x china tariff agreement by june 30	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x8277ac…
06-24 10:22:41	Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	64	80¢	$51	0x3bfb40…
06-24 10:20:55	Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x49b990…
06-24 08:53:17	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	14	52¢	$7	0x87ee43…
06-24 08:52:55	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	268	53¢	$142	0xcb11cc…
06-24 08:48:31	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	167	53¢	$89	0x045a40…
06-24 08:43:26	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0xe92801…
06-24 08:22:46	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	555	54¢	$300	0x133d31…
06-24 08:22:46	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	500	53¢	$265	0x0fd5e6…
06-24 07:13:46	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	No	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0x0faf94…
06-24 06:46:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	33	32¢	$11	0x9a5cdc…
06-24 06:35:31	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	851	65¢	$553	0xe76a10…
06-24 06:35:31	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	270	64¢	$173	0x03a416…
06-24 06:18:47	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x3deab1…
06-24 06:18:44	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	535	63¢	$337	0x20f33d…
06-24 03:48:40	Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	132	48¢	$63	0xca562c…
06-24 03:48:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,127	46¢	$1,439	0x177fcd…
06-24 03:30:02	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0x8bf2d6…
06-24 01:52:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0x89a3d2…
06-24 01:04:37	Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	SELL	8	70¢	$5	0x1520ac…
06-24 00:54:07	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	350	9¢	$32	0x163bea…
06-24 00:29:14	Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	39	7¢	$3	0x097aee…
06-23 22:43:53	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	105	33¢	$35	0x73f99e…
06-23 22:38:32	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	203	33¢	$67	0x820756…
06-23 22:37:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	SELL	48	33¢	$16	0xa087c9…
06-23 19:50:59	Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	17	58¢	$10	0x286812…
06-23 18:18:28	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	837	11¢	$92	0xb5786d…
06-23 18:18:28	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	11¢	$3	0x428d18…
06-23 18:17:29	Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	3	57¢	$2	0xb30668…
06-23 18:16:32	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0x6d296f…