Pleasing-Deck — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.57K

Unrealized P&L

-$268

Hit rate

68.5%

Resolved

182

Trades

610

lifetime

Volume

$31.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$51

Open exposure

$632

12 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-30 20:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Crypto

41% 51% +$810

Politics

39% 57% +$738

Other

20% 45% +$14

Tech

0% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 292 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+305	$187	60¢	$183	-$4	10-30 04:05
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+242	$150	56¢	$136	-$14	10-30 04:53
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,099	$300	8¢	$88	-$212	09-17 01:59
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-455	-$9	16¢	$-70	-$62	10-09 15:52
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	+962	$50	4¢	$40	-$10	10-30 00:09
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	-753	-$31	4¢	$-34	-$2	10-09 15:54
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	-556	-$40	5¢	$-29	+$10	05-21 17:42
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+107	$30	27¢	$29	-$1	10-18 03:32
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+42	$20	48¢	$20	+$0	10-30 20:50
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	-263	-$13	0¢	$-1	+$12	05-15 19:38
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	-588	-$10	0¢	$-1	+$9	05-15 19:38
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	-333	-$7	0¢	$-0	+$6	05-15 19:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	7	$871	3,538	4,291	-753	open	—	10-09 15:54
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	7	$839	778	960	-182	Yes	+$139	06-20 05:14
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$700	667	667	+0	Yes	+$100	03-16 21:19
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$672	1,312	1,312	+0	open	—	08-19 15:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$638	429	667	-238	Yes	+$238	05-14 09:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$638	594	594	+0	No	+$78	05-11 09:56
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	4	$614	699	939	-239	Yes	+$14	06-20 05:13
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	7	$609	1,256	1,710	-455	open	—	10-09 15:52
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	6	$582	1,838	1,838	+0	open	—	10-30 00:01
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	4	$573	637	332	+305	open	—	10-30 04:05
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	5	$485	2,071	2,071	-0	open	—	06-26 19:15
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$474	323	323	+0	No	+$74	04-21 09:08
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	4	$462	503	503	+0	No	+$162	05-11 09:59
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	4	$451	2,328	2,328	-0	open	—	05-04 15:52
will bitcoin dip to 60k in february 2026 394 616	2	$443	526	526	+0	Yes	+$243	02-05 21:42
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$414	522	522	-0	open	—	08-19 15:21
will bitcoin dip to 65k in february 2026 372 697	2	$412	312	312	+0	Yes	+$212	02-05 21:38
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	3	$410	261	261	+0	Yes	+$90	06-19 20:00
will bitcoin dip to 85k in january 2026	2	$386	286	286	+0	Yes	+$186	01-29 17:11
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	4	$341	370	370	+0	No	-$59	06-20 05:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$340	540	540	+0	No	-$60	05-21 17:42
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$339	514	514	+0	Yes	-$61	03-02 15:48
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	4	$335	231	231	+0	No	+$35	05-11 09:57
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	3	$324	256	256	+0	No	+$94	04-21 15:27
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	1	$300	1,099	0	+1,099	open	—	09-17 01:59
will bitcoin dip to 45k in february 2026 429 933 793	2	$291	1,305	1,305	+0	No	+$91	02-05 22:45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	3	$279	119	308	-189	No	-$9	06-19 20:03
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$276	201	201	+0	Yes	-$4	06-04 07:08
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	3	$272	140	224	-85	Yes	+$72	06-04 07:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$261	217	217	+0	No	+$61	04-21 15:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 20:50:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0x799560…
10-30 20:49:21	Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	417	24¢	$100	0x73e4be…
10-30 20:47:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	SELL	24	7¢	$2	0x0aeffd…
10-30 20:45:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xddceb7…
10-30 20:27:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	37	84¢	$31	0x5cea19…
10-30 20:26:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	47	28¢	$13	0x63c57e…
10-30 20:25:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0xc8445b…
10-30 20:25:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x3ec41b…
10-30 20:22:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	24	94¢	$23	0x09de54…
10-30 20:21:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xdae1b8…
10-30 20:21:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xcbf185…
10-30 20:21:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	SELL	38	28¢	$11	0xd4c09b…
10-30 20:20:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x314334…
10-30 20:20:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x8464a4…
10-30 20:18:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x8017e1…
10-30 20:16:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	37	57¢	$21	0xe3b9f1…
10-30 20:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xb85332…
10-30 20:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x71eeff…
10-30 20:12:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	17	70¢	$12	0x37bf18…
10-30 20:11:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xb6c32e…
10-30 20:10:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xd92815…
10-30 20:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xff3d7b…
10-30 20:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	SELL	26	79¢	$21	0x997d1d…
10-30 20:06:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x1d12b5…
10-30 20:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	19	62¢	$11	0xe6fbfb…
10-30 20:06:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x870716…
10-30 20:05:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	SELL	66	37¢	$24	0xdebb6c…
10-30 20:04:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x587fe6…
10-30 20:04:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x0d7622…
10-30 20:01:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	37	23¢	$8	0xc6c6db…
10-30 20:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x0807b7…
10-30 20:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x62f5f0…
10-30 19:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	53	28¢	$15	0x91b8b5…
10-30 19:57:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x93a8b1…
10-30 19:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	68	64¢	$43	0x4789a5…
10-30 19:57:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x97af5e…
10-30 19:55:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x59bc9b…
10-30 19:55:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x215a34…
10-30 19:54:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xe5ef47…
10-30 19:54:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0xbd8720…
10-30 19:53:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x6f8ec9…
10-30 19:52:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	SELL	43	78¢	$34	0xf5cf4a…
10-30 19:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x3b3892…
10-30 19:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x05b25d…
10-30 19:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x671be4…
10-30 19:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	34	85¢	$29	0xfe6e94…
10-30 19:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x6fd9d3…
10-30 19:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x604dfe…
10-30 19:24:31	AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0x10573a…
10-30 16:26:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x824f54…
10-30 16:25:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	52	72¢	$37	0x54485d…
10-30 16:23:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0x45b771…
10-30 16:22:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	93	94¢	$88	0x215be7…
10-30 16:21:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0xd8567d…
10-30 16:20:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x02a7c9…
10-30 16:20:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x6acaa0…
10-30 16:18:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	82	85¢	$70	0x576251…
10-30 16:16:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x1bbc33…
10-30 16:16:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	SELL	49	41¢	$20	0xfc91d6…
10-30 16:16:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x0f7402…
10-30 16:15:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x5c8529…
10-30 16:09:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xaa69b4…
10-30 16:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0xa2b813…
10-30 15:19:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 30?	Yes	SELL	130	57¢	$75	0x46c36b…
10-30 15:06:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	130	15¢	$20	0x9a19f2…
10-30 08:12:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	155	8¢	$12	0x5ece61…
10-30 08:12:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	119	21¢	$25	0x0112c3…
10-30 08:11:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xce6aca…
10-30 08:11:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	43	80¢	$34	0x315910…
10-30 08:10:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x5fdab3…
10-30 08:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	51	39¢	$20	0xe47603…
10-30 08:09:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x82cd13…
10-30 08:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	SELL	27	11¢	$3	0x201ebd…
10-30 08:06:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	27	36¢	$10	0xdac2cc…
10-30 08:05:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	SELL	30	64¢	$19	0xde155f…
10-30 08:05:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x7217e3…
10-30 08:02:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	39	81¢	$32	0x4a3484…
10-30 08:00:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x46c009…
10-30 08:00:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	SELL	49	35¢	$17	0x4076be…
10-30 07:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x60e5c7…
10-30 07:58:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	65	81¢	$52	0x6c0d11…
10-30 07:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x6b2e6e…
10-30 07:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xa3e114…
10-30 07:52:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	SELL	36	19¢	$7	0x121616…
10-30 07:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x341baa…
10-30 07:46:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	SELL	41	5¢	$2	0x802002…
10-30 07:44:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xcdd6b4…
10-30 07:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	SELL	86	88¢	$76	0x735b93…
10-30 07:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	86	29¢	$25	0xb366d2…
10-30 07:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xa9c8ec…
10-30 07:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xb0cafb…
10-30 07:35:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	56	26¢	$14	0x9f3295…
10-30 07:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x1f0db8…
10-30 07:33:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	125	94¢	$118	0xfb4099…
10-30 07:32:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x5d768f…
10-30 07:27:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	33	79¢	$26	0xd0527e…
10-30 07:27:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x3d67f6…
10-30 07:27:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x985b8d…
10-30 07:24:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x13dc54…
10-30 07:24:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	SELL	45	47¢	$21	0x6fd70b…