Grand-Reasoning 0x54b561…924b31
whale hot 3W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$337.7K
Unrealized P&L
-$2.38K
Hit rate
71.5%
Resolved
2,142
Trades
94,415
lifetime
Volume
$19.1M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$202
Open exposure
$276.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 02:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 275 days
Categories
Other
38% 53% +$46,698
Politics
33% 52% +$86,513
Sports
28% 54% +$191,405
Crypto
1% 79% +$15,028
Tech
0% 50% -$1,237
Pop-Culture
0% 14% -$715
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 835 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +51,159 $28,629 94¢ $48.1K +$19,461 10-14 22:43
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes -50,820 -$25,875 94¢ $-48025 -$22,150 10-14 14:33
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +60,000 $37,392 66¢ $39.9K +$2,508 10-26 15:53
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +50,000 $30,845 74¢ $36.7K +$5,905 10-25 18:51
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +45,000 $31,023 70¢ $31.3K +$252 10-26 11:38
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No -16,000 -$9,720 66¢ $-10480 -$760 08-04 04:53
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +10,000 $7,500 75¢ $7.5K +$0 10-27 02:04
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -6,000 -$5,037 86¢ $-5142 -$105 07-03 23:20
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -5,000 -$4,350 97¢ $-4845 -$495 05-02 09:30
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes -8,288 -$3,591 54¢ $-4501 -$910 09-03 02:43
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No +10,000 $4,200 42¢ $4.2K +$50 10-02 17:25
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes -10,000 -$4,224 42¢ $-4250 -$26 10-17 15:23
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -5,000 -$3,860 82¢ $-4085 -$225 07-14 17:39
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +10,000 $3,800 34¢ $3.4K -$350 10-20 04:01
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +6,064 $1,614 55¢ $3.3K +$1,691 10-06 15:44
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? No +2,739 $2,569 100¢ $2.7K +$169 10-22 16:21
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +20,000 $2,977 12¢ $2.5K -$477 10-21 04:18
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? Yes +5,000 $1,585 44¢ $2.2K +$590 10-25 17:51
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +3,000 $1,864 65¢ $1.9K +$75 10-26 15:28
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No +5,091 $1,978 32¢ $1.6K -$374 10-19 18:10
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes -5,091 -$1,776 32¢ $-1604 +$172 10-19 18:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes +10,000 $1,350 14¢ $1.3K +$0 10-24 14:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +10,000 $6,972 12¢ $1.2K -$5,822 10-15 14:00
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes -2,225 -$1,499 46¢ $-1012 +$487 07-07 18:52
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Yes +10,000 $1,000 10¢ $950 -$50 10-22 18:16
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes +5,000 $1,621 18¢ $875 -$746 10-15 19:09
Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026? Yes +10,000 $1,908 8¢ $850 -$1,058 10-25 21:01
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes +5,657 $622 12¢ $651 +$28 10-11 21:52
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -4,000 -$440 16¢ $-640 -$200 10-20 18:47
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Yes +3,810 $648 16¢ $629 -$19 10-26 19:47