Grand-Reasoning 0x54b561…924b31
whale hot 3W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$325.2K
Unrealized P&L
-$17.2K
Hit rate
71.3%
Resolved
2,157
Trades
95,411
lifetime
Volume
$19.4M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$204
Open exposure
$83.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-29 17:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 277 days
Categories
Other
37% 52% +$35,044
Politics
35% 52% +$85,681
Sports
27% 54% +$191,405
Crypto
1% 79% +$15,028
Tech
0% 50% -$1,237
Pop-Culture
0% 14% -$715
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 835 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +24,476 $8,373 100¢ $24.5K +$16,103 10-27 20:07
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No -16,000 -$9,720 66¢ $-10480 -$760 08-04 04:53
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +10,000 $2,092 68¢ $6.9K +$4,758 10-29 17:50
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -6,000 -$5,037 83¢ $-4959 +$78 07-03 23:20
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -5,000 -$4,350 97¢ $-4842 -$492 05-02 09:30
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No +10,000 $4,200 48¢ $4.8K +$550 10-02 17:25
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes -10,000 -$4,224 46¢ $-4650 -$426 10-17 15:23
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -5,000 -$3,860 75¢ $-3753 +$108 07-14 17:39
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes -8,288 -$3,591 41¢ $-3419 +$172 09-03 02:43
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +10,000 $3,800 30¢ $3.0K -$750 10-20 04:01
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +6,064 $1,614 41¢ $2.5K +$872 10-06 15:44
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No +5,091 $1,978 31¢ $1.6K -$400 10-19 18:10
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes -5,091 -$1,776 30¢ $-1553 +$223 10-19 18:11
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes -2,225 -$1,499 59¢ $-1313 +$187 07-07 18:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes +10,000 $1,350 11¢ $1.0K -$300 10-24 14:44
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +24,476 $34,124 3¢ $734 -$33,390 10-27 20:58
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -4,000 -$440 14¢ $-560 -$120 10-20 18:47
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -12,000 -$595 4¢ $-486 +$109 07-27 21:36
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +1,000 $450 44¢ $435 -$15 08-30 16:18
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes +363 $297 73¢ $263 -$34 10-19 07:21
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes +8,000 $2,660 3¢ $240 -$2,420 10-15 14:00
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes +2,000 $511 10¢ $210 -$301 08-20 04:20
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No -200 -$120 97¢ $-194 -$74 07-18 01:18
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes -2,000 -$1,118 9¢ $-180 +$938 07-29 21:40
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +5,000 $264 4¢ $175 -$89 10-27 22:45
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 Yes +2,000 $1,220 7¢ $140 -$1,080 08-08 01:27
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,000 $140 14¢ $135 -$5 08-04 11:46
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +2,000 $510 6¢ $110 -$400 06-17 22:53
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,400 $63 4¢ $59 -$4 10-19 14:35
Will G2 Esports win Worlds 2026? Yes +6,555 $241 1¢ $43 -$198 10-24 12:21