Grand-Reasoning — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$56.6K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.8%

Resolved

Trades

54,177

lifetime

Volume

$9.06M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$167

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 05:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Politics

41% 33% +$594

Other

40% 55% $-608

Sports

16% 49% +$56,639

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 982 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	1,387	$358.5K	238,424	218,513	+19,910	open	—	03-11 18:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	548	$340.5K	302,914	234,321	+68,593	open	—	06-17 23:51
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	1,714	$257.3K	324,273	77,712	+246,561	open	—	04-12 17:28
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1,361	$252.8K	327,085	308,348	+18,737	open	—	04-08 16:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1,419	$237.1K	388,042	370,481	+17,561	open	—	05-30 12:40
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	761	$220.5K	175,194	151,774	+23,420	open	—	02-03 20:06
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	340	$177.8K	152,751	127,800	+24,951	open	—	03-03 17:52
netanyahu out by march 31 854	247	$171.8K	91,967	87,967	+4,000	open	—	03-24 04:36
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	640	$171.6K	204,681	188,782	+15,900	open	—	04-01 15:31
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	1,296	$152.3K	331,333	96,017	+235,317	open	—	04-12 17:18
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	483	$151.6K	209,916	166,591	+43,325	open	—	06-02 21:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	867	$138.0K	173,096	168,549	+4,547	open	—	04-28 12:44
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	329	$137.8K	74,640	74,055	+585	open	—	02-27 22:12
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	718	$123.0K	131,357	110,476	+20,881	open	—	04-27 02:54
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	235	$116.9K	115,303	115,303	+0	open	—	07-06 02:19
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	525	$98.9K	140,948	140,455	+493	open	—	04-05 22:08
fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	65	$95.6K	121,000	81,000	+40,000	open	—	07-07 00:15
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	223	$87.0K	53,000	52,000	+1,000	open	—	07-12 03:36
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	659	$86.5K	93,762	90,766	+2,996	open	—	06-19 20:53
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	118	$85.5K	58,148	48,147	+10,000	open	—	08-06 22:01
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	168	$83.2K	48,684	45,937	+2,748	open	—	03-27 06:15
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	225	$82.8K	55,921	33,293	+22,628	open	—	03-04 19:21
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	406	$81.8K	65,305	55,940	+9,365	open	—	01-28 00:07
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	233	$78.7K	44,449	41,799	+2,650	open	—	04-11 20:56
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	486	$76.8K	123,498	133,924	-10,425	open	—	02-28 00:45
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	306	$75.6K	74,327	74,489	-162	open	—	04-10 23:20
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	420	$75.4K	89,442	78,265	+11,177	open	—	06-15 01:01
Lakers vs. Rockets	120	$68.3K	37,191	54,834	-17,643	open	—	04-27 03:57
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	708	$55.7K	46,696	42,240	+4,456	open	—	05-18 01:22
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	212	$52.6K	32,915	33,870	-955	open	—	03-31 15:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 05:48:49	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	1,045	13¢	$136	0x581929…
08-10 03:23:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0xd8f51d…
08-10 02:18:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0x47d73b…
08-10 02:16:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x402fef…
08-10 02:13:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,268	48¢	$608	0xc912ff…
08-10 02:12:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	61	18¢	$11	0xe8cdcd…
08-10 01:33:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xe3bbd9…
08-10 01:20:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x2d2586…
08-10 00:31:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	12	18¢	$2	0x6eccba…
08-09 23:36:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	114	18¢	$21	0x63607b…
08-09 22:20:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	61	49¢	$30	0x1b4e92…
08-09 22:18:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	14	49¢	$7	0xa74955…
08-09 22:13:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x58ad84…
08-09 22:13:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x257ee6…
08-09 22:13:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x12f832…
08-09 22:13:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	131	49¢	$64	0x7b677d…
08-09 22:13:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x05d521…
08-09 22:13:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$3	0x7c53a3…
08-09 22:05:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x87842a…
08-09 22:05:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x62152a…
08-09 22:05:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x419807…
08-09 22:05:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x2c7c84…
08-09 22:04:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x41af32…
08-09 22:02:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xeb379b…
08-09 21:59:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	49¢	$2	0xb31ff4…
08-09 21:59:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xa77690…
08-09 21:59:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x075f97…
08-09 21:59:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xaac1e0…
08-09 21:59:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xa5238b…
08-09 21:59:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x2621d7…
08-09 21:58:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,010	49¢	$495	0x20dd1b…
08-09 08:43:49	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0xda3689…
08-09 01:55:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5,000	56¢	$2,800	0x30f4f5…
08-09 00:58:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	500	35¢	$175	0xeaa485…
08-09 00:37:10	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	SELL	14	7¢	$1	0x41c30a…
08-08 23:57:37	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	391	42¢	$164	0xbf7f35…
08-08 23:53:06	ufc ste36 gui2 2026 08 08	Steven Asplund	BUY	91	86¢	$78	0x8babec…
08-08 23:53:06	ufc ste36 gui2 2026 08 08	Steven Asplund	BUY	15	86¢	$13	0x8a9e24…
08-08 23:53:06	ufc ste36 gui2 2026 08 08	Steven Asplund	BUY	71	86¢	$61	0x5eb316…
08-08 23:52:34	ufc ste36 gui2 2026 08 08	Steven Asplund	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x57cbd0…
08-08 23:52:33	ufc ste36 gui2 2026 08 08	Steven Asplund	BUY	167	77¢	$128	0xd7f1bf…
08-08 23:51:58	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x870aea…
08-08 23:49:07	ufc ste36 gui2 2026 08 08	Guilherme Pat	BUY	513	50¢	$256	0xc2ac3d…
08-08 23:46:21	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	172	42¢	$72	0xf72488…
08-08 23:43:36	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x251c8a…
08-08 23:31:01	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	94	42¢	$39	0xe19b1a…
08-08 23:27:45	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	1,125	42¢	$472	0x047c74…
08-08 23:27:36	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	8	42¢	$4	0x2727d1…
08-08 23:23:31	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x01f875…
08-08 23:23:12	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	86	42¢	$36	0x96b7f4…
08-08 23:22:37	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0xf0156b…
08-08 23:19:55	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x968708…
08-08 23:19:30	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	16	42¢	$7	0x7e8124…
08-08 23:19:28	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x1bcb1e…
08-08 23:19:27	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	37	42¢	$16	0xb29cb8…
08-08 23:19:27	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0x70fc22…
08-08 23:19:27	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x6e2a91…
08-08 23:19:25	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	16	42¢	$7	0xadb72a…
08-08 23:19:25	ufc mat10 qui2 2026 08 08	Mateusz Gamrot	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x209a53…
08-08 23:18:01	ufc die bil1 2026 08 08	Diego Ferreira	BUY	1,000	61¢	$610	0xf4eac1…
08-08 23:17:25	ufc die bil1 2026 08 08	Diego Ferreira	BUY	11	61¢	$6	0x8c9874…
08-08 23:10:19	ufc bru13 diy 2026 08 08	Diyar Nurgozhay	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x2415bd…
08-08 23:10:10	ufc bru13 diy 2026 08 08	Diyar Nurgozhay	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xe5c2f5…
08-08 22:59:39	ufc die bil1 2026 08 08	Diego Ferreira	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x198290…
08-08 22:58:54	ufc die bil1 2026 08 08	Diego Ferreira	BUY	256	61¢	$156	0x5ae8e8…
08-08 22:58:43	ufc die bil1 2026 08 08	Diego Ferreira	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x835431…
08-08 22:58:42	ufc die bil1 2026 08 08	Diego Ferreira	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xf9c4ca…
08-08 22:48:22	ufc die bil1 2026 08 08	Diego Ferreira	BUY	987	61¢	$602	0x115811…
08-08 22:39:36	ufc die bil1 2026 08 08	Diego Ferreira	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x477406…
08-08 22:06:06	ufc die bil1 2026 08 08	Diego Ferreira	BUY	14	61¢	$8	0x0b61e9…
08-08 22:00:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	SELL	156	8¢	$12	0x58c47b…
08-08 21:59:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	SELL	165	7¢	$12	0x26bf89…
08-08 21:54:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0x1573d7…
08-08 21:53:48	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	SELL	58	7¢	$4	0xf2ebb5…
08-08 21:53:48	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	SELL	44	7¢	$3	0xb25f6f…
08-08 21:46:37	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	402	15¢	$60	0x33f683…
08-08 21:43:52	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	13	15¢	$2	0xf8e273…
08-08 21:36:27	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x89cfdd…
08-08 21:17:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	561	15¢	$84	0xc3e5f1…
08-08 21:17:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	11	15¢	$2	0x3a3cd9…
08-08 21:05:27	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	BUY	269	6¢	$16	0xce7f8b…
08-08 20:25:52	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	BUY	769	6¢	$46	0xcefba1…
08-08 19:53:12	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	BUY	700	8¢	$56	0x94b29f…
08-08 19:12:27	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	Yes	BUY	256	8¢	$20	0x22191a…
08-08 19:08:39	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	3,226	52¢	$1,678	0x0339e0…
08-08 19:08:09	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	3,843	52¢	$1,998	0x0f6d8d…
08-08 19:08:06	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x58ce4a…
08-08 19:08:00	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	16	54¢	$9	0x4dbe77…
08-08 19:07:57	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	1,500	54¢	$810	0xe0f0f9…
08-08 19:07:46	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0xff5f00…
08-08 19:07:45	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0x82a39e…
08-08 19:07:43	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0x46071a…
08-08 19:07:42	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0xcc2528…
08-08 19:07:40	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0x5da8cc…
08-08 19:07:40	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0x4d8f08…
08-08 19:07:39	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	41	54¢	$22	0x255a36…
08-08 19:07:37	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	38	54¢	$21	0x2b8400…
08-08 19:07:37	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	4,807	53¢	$2,548	0x14814a…
08-08 19:07:27	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	1,119	54¢	$604	0xf63b07…
08-08 19:07:27	dota2 amaru jenz 2026 07 28 game1	Amaru Gaming	SELL	1,887	54¢	$1,019	0x997cc3…