Monthly-Paranoia 0xc85d1d…cb18b2
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$47
Unrealized P&L
+$593
Hit rate
72.0%
Resolved
93
Trades
707
lifetime
Volume
$42.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$59
Open exposure
$6.37K
20 positions
First seen
2026-01-24
last 10-28 05:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 48 days
Categories
Other
67% 61% -$85
Politics
29% 45% -$31
Sports
4% 88% +$69
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
43 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No +2,889 $2,403 90¢ $2.6K +$197 10-24 14:50
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No -683 -$652 97¢ $-662 -$10 09-22 18:43
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes +819 $661 72¢ $585 -$76 10-25 14:26
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +538 $317 96¢ $514 +$196 10-25 23:22
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +352 $300 94¢ $333 +$33 09-23 22:08
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? No +344 $317 95¢ $327 +$10 10-27 14:35
Trump out as President before 2027? No -315 -$277 95¢ $-300 -$23 06-19 13:15
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? Yes +447 $162 64¢ $288 +$126 10-27 08:56
putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027 No +255 $206 90¢ $231 +$25 07-14 13:13
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -190 -$177 96¢ $-182 -$5 07-20 00:20
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No -81 -$75 96¢ $-78 -$3 05-01 18:20
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -76 -$141 98¢ $-75 +$67 10-11 18:19
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -661 -$114 11¢ $-71 +$43 05-02 09:46
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -263 -$57 18¢ $-48 +$9 05-02 09:46
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -467 -$50 10¢ $-45 +$4 05-03 19:52
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes +180 $18 10¢ $17 -$1 10-28 05:00
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -38 -$8 18¢ $-7 +$1 05-03 19:53
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -41 -$11 17¢ $-7 +$4 05-02 09:45
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +3 $5 68¢ $2 -$3 05-02 21:49
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes +31 $1 2¢ $1 -$1 10-01 09:15