Grounded-Depression — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18.6K

Unrealized P&L

+$3.38K

Hit rate

75.3%

Resolved

Trades

39,480

lifetime

Volume

$33.5M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$848

Open exposure

$81.9K

18 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 07-21 00:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

77% 56% $-21,246

Other

22% 75% +$2,670

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 416 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+50,004	$39,052	74¢	$37.3K	$-1,799	07-18 12:17
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+65,721	$16,272	26¢	$16.8K	+$487	07-21 04:47
New pandemic in 2026?	No	-11,429	$-10,286	94¢	$-10686	$-400	06-20 17:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+8,031	$2,773	99¢	$7.9K	+$5,150	07-10 19:42
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+3,000	$2,862	96¢	$2.9K	+$5	07-05 19:22
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	-2,645	$-2,037	88¢	$-2314	$-278	05-29 15:21
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,225	$1,782	92¢	$2.0K	+$254	07-01 09:17
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	No	+695	$563	84¢	$580	+$17	07-14 12:09
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	No	+532	$482	95¢	$507	+$25	06-06 04:00
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	No	+340	$286	88¢	$298	+$12	07-05 12:55
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	-336	$-275	84¢	$-280	$-5	07-20 16:19
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	+250	$218	94¢	$236	+$19	06-27 14:43
Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	+189	$108	34¢	$63	$-44	07-06 07:55
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	+19	$16	94¢	$18	+$2	07-14 12:31
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?	No	-21	$-17	77¢	$-16	+$1	06-12 09:20
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	+15	$12	84¢	$12	+$0	06-24 12:19
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+74	$75	14¢	$10	$-65	05-29 15:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+0	$0	44¢	$0	+$0	07-13 10:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	1,016	$2.12M	1,116,476	1,073,599	+42,877	open	—	03-04 16:05
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1,678	$1.63M	1,203,407	1,000,114	+203,294	open	—	04-08 17:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1,633	$1.17M	1,730,205	1,705,296	+24,909	open	—	05-27 16:38
netanyahu out by march 31 854	329	$1.14M	609,776	585,203	+24,573	open	—	04-01 04:36
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	829	$928.3K	736,219	598,886	+137,333	open	—	02-28 07:18
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	866	$783.1K	639,110	473,804	+165,306	open	—	03-12 14:39
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	535	$736.3K	458,994	359,931	+99,063	open	—	03-31 20:21
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1,175	$674.9K	536,006	502,636	+33,370	open	—	03-31 15:55
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	821	$673.2K	720,994	683,389	+37,605	open	—	04-22 08:54
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1,032	$659.6K	523,098	442,208	+80,890	open	—	01-18 06:04
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1,218	$592.9K	463,052	379,832	+83,221	open	—	02-01 04:47
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	237	$540.4K	301,015	261,668	+39,347	open	—	03-03 16:51
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	456	$525.4K	413,910	294,433	+119,477	open	—	04-08 18:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	374	$479.1K	343,116	317,382	+25,734	open	—	05-08 12:35
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	283	$453.4K	528,281	394,837	+133,444	open	—	06-16 11:56
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	526	$418.8K	327,472	342,764	-15,291	open	—	04-29 10:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	413	$414.8K	365,023	295,403	+69,620	open	—	04-29 17:06
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	672	$408.5K	335,739	305,994	+29,744	open	—	01-31 03:18
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	136	$382.1K	258,836	180,239	+78,597	open	—	03-30 22:25
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	359	$377.9K	266,211	215,031	+51,180	open	—	01-20 00:18
Trump out as President by April 30?	140	$348.8K	175,102	179,077	-3,975	open	—	04-21 11:17
will the us invade iran by march 31	199	$340.9K	198,068	193,599	+4,469	open	—	03-30 08:42
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	194	$329.6K	234,375	159,117	+75,258	open	—	05-23 21:18
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	404	$326.3K	457,684	372,413	+85,270	open	—	07-21 04:47
cbb uconn duke 2026 03 29	81	$319.2K	193,463	193,428	+36	open	—	03-29 22:09
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	646	$306.4K	321,521	274,907	+46,613	open	—	04-07 22:53
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	271	$304.2K	236,538	217,374	+19,165	No	+$6,674	05-08 04:02
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	394	$292.1K	310,831	248,295	+62,536	open	—	04-07 23:08
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	318	$283.4K	156,621	146,160	+10,461	open	—	02-28 23:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	247	$259.6K	251,491	208,305	+43,186	open	—	04-07 23:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 04:47:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	27¢	$5	0x9d9620…
07-21 04:47:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	56	27¢	$15	0x981204…
07-21 04:47:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0xfddf96…
07-21 04:47:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$6	0xefbfd7…
07-21 04:47:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0xc6efd3…
07-21 04:02:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	27¢	$135	0xc2a05d…
07-21 03:14:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x14336f…
07-21 03:01:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	105	27¢	$28	0x477a22…
07-21 02:58:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	850	27¢	$229	0x36e256…
07-21 02:46:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x25d2a5…
07-21 02:39:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	741	27¢	$200	0x145170…
07-21 02:26:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	632	27¢	$171	0x84fcad…
07-21 01:28:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,000	27¢	$270	0x80c524…
07-21 00:08:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0xcd64cc…
07-20 23:44:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	27¢	$5	0xb8b632…
07-20 23:41:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	27¢	$5	0x94891a…
07-20 23:41:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	27¢	$5	0xdf01e9…
07-20 23:41:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	27¢	$5	0x68c172…
07-20 23:40:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0xb7e288…
07-20 23:33:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0x83de31…
07-20 23:29:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	27¢	$4	0x79c8f6…
07-20 23:27:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0x4811cb…
07-20 23:19:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	185	27¢	$50	0xfaf53a…
07-20 23:18:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	27¢	$4	0x3e93c3…
07-20 23:13:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0xd2a1b5…
07-20 22:55:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	400	27¢	$108	0x02a9a1…
07-20 22:53:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0x923425…
07-20 22:44:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	167	27¢	$45	0xff159a…
07-20 22:40:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0x45a0c6…
07-20 22:36:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	24	27¢	$6	0xc32415…
07-20 22:00:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,111	27¢	$300	0x7ca027…
07-20 21:58:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	74	27¢	$20	0x091ac0…
07-20 21:55:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0x30667c…
07-20 21:30:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x18ce8c…
07-20 21:29:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	2,100	99¢	$2,075	0xe661e6…
07-20 21:21:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x6194ab…
07-20 21:13:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	27¢	$2	0xe62142…
07-20 21:08:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	741	27¢	$200	0xabd547…
07-20 21:07:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0x2dab68…
07-20 21:03:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0x6d76ee…
07-20 20:57:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	27¢	$5	0x00035b…
07-20 20:56:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	27¢	$2	0x29068b…
07-20 20:47:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	27¢	$5	0xcdf643…
07-20 20:35:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0x3cbbc2…
07-20 20:34:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	27¢	$5	0x659221…
07-20 20:34:07	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	483	5¢	$25	0xa44565…
07-20 20:33:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	27¢	$2	0xf8fc1d…
07-20 20:26:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	27¢	$54	0xfb87e6…
07-20 20:25:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	27¢	$5	0x665adc…
07-20 20:24:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	74	27¢	$20	0x6b61ea…
07-20 20:22:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	27¢	$5	0x40017c…
07-20 20:22:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0xe72550…
07-20 20:15:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	27¢	$5	0xe8facf…
07-20 20:15:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3,420	27¢	$923	0x52125a…
07-20 19:41:16	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	77	5¢	$4	0xac6b9e…
07-20 19:33:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6,848	27¢	$1,849	0x51a3a2…
07-20 19:33:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x25ce0b…
07-20 19:30:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x6c05d9…
07-20 19:28:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0xb8a580…
07-20 19:26:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x901366…
07-20 19:16:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	141	27¢	$38	0x9cebf3…
07-20 18:57:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	130	27¢	$35	0xa36a00…
07-20 18:51:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	74	27¢	$20	0xb34bab…
07-20 18:48:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,000	27¢	$540	0x9cd597…
07-20 18:45:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0xb402ba…
07-20 18:41:03	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x4d1411…
07-20 18:40:24	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	88	6¢	$5	0x27ce48…
07-20 18:35:46	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	209	6¢	$12	0x1d61b2…
07-20 18:34:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xca19ea…
07-20 18:31:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0xfda092…
07-20 18:25:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	167	27¢	$45	0x630fec…
07-20 18:23:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	27¢	$27	0xc87504…
07-20 18:21:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xe297eb…
07-20 18:19:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x3cfd1f…
07-20 18:18:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0xceef07…
07-20 18:17:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x60236a…
07-20 18:17:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0x63f1b0…
07-20 18:13:27	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	2,240	6¢	$128	0x1bbadb…
07-20 18:12:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$1	0x9abd66…
07-20 18:12:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0x526f41…
07-20 18:12:18	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$11	0x950a7c…
07-20 18:07:49	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	25	6¢	$1	0x55efa8…
07-20 18:07:42	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x35b25f…
07-20 18:07:40	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	2,500	6¢	$142	0xa420d8…
07-20 18:06:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0x8a16b5…
07-20 18:04:39	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	526	6¢	$30	0xc4bcd1…
07-20 17:57:07	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	526	6¢	$30	0x9d6004…
07-20 17:56:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$1	0xc505b5…
07-20 17:56:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4,444	27¢	$1,200	0x87017e…
07-20 17:52:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$1	0x946e50…
07-20 17:52:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0x287997…
07-20 17:49:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	59	27¢	$16	0xef170b…
07-20 17:48:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	34	27¢	$9	0xaf21c2…
07-20 17:48:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	27¢	$6	0xa37652…
07-20 17:48:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6,755	27¢	$1,824	0x519acc…
07-20 17:40:55	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	233	6¢	$13	0x63aaf5…
07-20 17:38:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x542d1a…
07-20 17:37:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	133	27¢	$36	0x0c8c29…
07-20 17:35:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	29	27¢	$8	0x587811…
07-20 17:34:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xdc8046…