Faraway-Hardcover — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.90K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.11K

Hit rate

97.2%

Resolved

Trades

2,015

lifetime

Volume

$1.10M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$544

Open exposure

$9.88K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 07-19 16:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

61% 86% +$5,434

Other

29% 50% +$107

Crypto

7% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-645

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 102 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+9,902	$4,939	36¢	$3.5K	$-1,424	06-12 11:19
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+3,414	$2,509	78¢	$2.7K	+$171	06-29 17:43
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	+2,814	$2,250	86¢	$2.4K	+$184	06-11 17:06
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	-758	$-416	67¢	$-508	$-92	06-15 14:41
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+571	$400	72¢	$409	+$9	07-19 16:03
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	+306	$150	64¢	$194	+$44	06-01 20:13
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	+500	$115	22¢	$110	$-5	07-01 12:59
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	No	+35	$30	93¢	$33	+$3	06-10 18:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	29	$75.7K	57,457	65,661	-8,204	open	—	06-01 21:55
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	19	$39.1K	31,242	19,799	+11,444	open	—	01-27 17:02
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	58	$32.3K	18,758	16,557	+2,201	open	—	04-22 09:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	25	$32.0K	24,537	9,000	+15,537	open	—	05-19 17:22
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	78	$30.6K	69,342	21,838	+47,505	open	—	06-14 23:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	20	$24.0K	29,524	0	+29,524	open	—	06-26 12:37
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	8	$20.5K	21,481	500	+20,981	open	—	05-22 23:31
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	68	$16.4K	28,334	842	+27,491	open	—	06-21 00:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$16.3K	15,560	1,260	+14,300	No	+$559	05-11 22:05
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	24	$15.0K	17,052	0	+17,052	open	—	05-19 17:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$15.0K	16,798	0	+16,798	open	—	05-24 13:51
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	1	$15.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	06-27 11:14
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	1	$15.0K	17,045	0	+17,045	open	—	07-07 17:40
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$15.0K	16,049	0	+16,049	No	+$1,049	05-01 16:15
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	5	$15.0K	18,160	0	+18,160	open	—	01-23 19:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	28	$14.7K	33,000	9,615	+23,385	open	—	06-14 22:11
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	16	$13.3K	7,832	7,832	+0	open	—	04-02 08:37
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	25	$13.1K	19,513	0	+19,513	open	—	04-19 11:05
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	48	$13.0K	16,044	0	+16,044	open	—	03-09 11:57
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	4	$12.6K	16,265	0	+16,265	open	—	01-23 19:51
Kash Patel out by May 31?	15	$12.0K	13,437	0	+13,437	open	—	05-24 12:15
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	14	$11.9K	15,131	5,850	+9,281	open	—	06-17 21:30
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	3	$11.6K	10,194	1,600	+8,594	open	—	05-28 13:54
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	10	$11.5K	14,264	0	+14,264	open	—	06-12 18:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	2	$11.2K	10,839	1,200	+9,639	open	—	05-13 22:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	2	$10.5K	10,991	0	+10,991	open	—	05-22 13:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	12	$10.4K	13,504	13,504	+0	open	—	07-04 11:36
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	2	$10.3K	5,495	5,494	+0	open	—	01-23 17:07
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	6	$10.0K	11,305	0	+11,305	open	—	01-27 17:00
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	16	$9.8K	5,926	5,926	+0	open	—	02-10 21:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 16:03:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	571	70¢	$400	0x6fc58e…
07-07 17:40:31	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Egypt	BUY	17,045	88¢	$15,000	0x6e1706…
07-04 11:40:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	16,500	4¢	$660	0xd64113…
07-04 11:36:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	13,504	21¢	$2,836	0x86de35…
07-02 11:18:40	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	13,310	4¢	$500	0xaeb5d9…
07-01 12:59:46	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	96	23¢	$22	0x89e4c7…
07-01 12:18:29	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	45	23¢	$10	0x668f4b…
07-01 12:17:22	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	23¢	$6	0x653b7c…
07-01 12:10:01	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x86fd7a…
06-30 04:19:01	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	33	23¢	$8	0xea0f46…
06-29 19:41:43	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x9fa632…
06-29 18:21:08	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	130	23¢	$30	0x1a5919…
06-29 17:43:47	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	462	68¢	$314	0x99fba9…
06-29 14:05:31	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x7aafd7…
06-29 12:20:44	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x2f220e…
06-29 11:26:41	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	23¢	$3	0xa45f57…
06-29 11:06:37	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	26	68¢	$18	0x1eb69c…
06-29 09:56:07	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	23¢	$4	0x3e655e…
06-29 08:35:55	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	23¢	$14	0x5c8568…
06-29 03:59:38	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	23¢	$0	0xcaf0d0…
06-29 00:27:43	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0xb7e80c…
06-28 23:05:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	3,241	77¢	$2,500	0x534dab…
06-28 23:05:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	227	64¢	$145	0xc8d983…
06-28 22:49:01	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	961	26¢	$251	0x905df9…
06-28 17:54:28	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x257fb3…
06-28 17:46:17	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0xaf24a4…
06-28 17:37:50	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x3c1f2d…
06-28 17:37:29	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0xee5282…
06-28 17:31:26	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x475534…
06-28 17:31:04	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x464bd2…
06-28 17:30:22	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	23¢	$6	0x6e474a…
06-28 16:47:55	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	72	70¢	$50	0xd30a4f…
06-28 16:47:31	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	293	68¢	$200	0x925c78…
06-28 16:39:07	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913	No	BUY	2,049	61¢	$1,250	0x2c6da7…
06-28 16:32:28	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	837	60¢	$500	0x47db4b…
06-28 16:32:04	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xda2b2c…
06-28 16:31:49	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x8b0d2f…
06-28 16:31:34	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xc6a78a…
06-28 16:31:32	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x61ad24…
06-28 14:21:19	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5,549	63¢	$3,500	0xab9eee…
06-28 00:48:44	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	BUY	160	83¢	$132	0xf0c347…
06-27 16:47:35	israel closes its airspace by july 15	No	BUY	5,000	91¢	$4,550	0xe143b4…
06-27 13:18:34	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x091240…
06-27 11:26:02	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	86	69¢	$59	0x61828f…
06-27 11:25:35	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	2,109	95¢	$2,000	0x6c1003…
06-27 11:21:38	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	BUY	10,000	84¢	$8,400	0x806b99…
06-27 11:19:50	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	BUY	455	55¢	$250	0xf7dc93…
06-27 11:14:37	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	20,000	75¢	$15,000	0x21c837…
06-26 20:07:23	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	No	BUY	333	90¢	$300	0xfb2a4e…
06-26 17:25:17	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	Yes	BUY	750	2¢	$15	0x4772e6…
06-26 17:23:53	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1,456	17¢	$250	0x0b7a61…
06-26 17:21:41	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	No	BUY	1,050	95¢	$1,000	0x704c7f…
06-26 16:34:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	1,438	33¢	$475	0x8886c5…
06-26 16:31:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0x802eee…
06-26 16:25:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0x4cc855…
06-26 16:25:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0x829e2a…
06-26 16:25:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0x6e47c0…
06-26 16:25:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	44	33¢	$14	0xde4e8f…
06-26 16:25:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	7	33¢	$2	0xc228b7…
06-26 16:25:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x4a6062…
06-26 16:25:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0xfd47f3…
06-26 16:25:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	500	33¢	$165	0xf24960…
06-26 16:25:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	225	33¢	$74	0xb2db02…
06-26 16:25:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	11	33¢	$4	0x56f045…
06-26 16:25:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0x1f8ee3…
06-26 16:25:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xbd5f49…
06-26 16:25:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x4ac3d8…
06-26 16:25:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x2b8a0a…
06-26 16:25:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0x1c6cd7…
06-26 16:17:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	416	33¢	$137	0xadbb7d…
06-26 16:13:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	302	33¢	$100	0x585ec3…
06-26 12:37:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	976	10¢	$102	0x633fba…
06-26 12:37:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	2,500	39¢	$975	0x60482a…
06-26 12:34:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x4a7e09…
06-26 12:34:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xcd99cc…
06-26 12:33:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xe648a3…
06-26 12:33:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0x35afb2…
06-26 12:32:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0x5bfb87…
06-26 12:27:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	6,250	56¢	$3,500	0xb31ee1…
06-26 11:54:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	1,000	40¢	$400	0xbcc23e…
06-26 11:53:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,754	57¢	$1,000	0x84cb20…
06-24 14:52:37	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	409	82¢	$333	0x8356b7…
06-24 14:45:35	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	125	82¢	$102	0x030440…
06-23 22:39:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	46¢	$920	0x7b1108…
06-23 22:34:58	congress approves iran deal in 2026 20260616005217959	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x310685…
06-23 22:34:23	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	445	45¢	$200	0xad3ca7…
06-23 22:25:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10,000	26¢	$2,600	0x2cc1e4…
06-23 22:22:16	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25,400	2¢	$485	0xd357a1…
06-22 23:28:01	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 spread home 1pt5	Iraq	BUY	1,000	26¢	$260	0xd1c6ec…
06-22 01:41:10	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	2,740	73¢	$2,000	0x5df528…
06-21 20:41:14	fifwc bel irn 2026 06 21 total 1pt5	Under	BUY	1,124	89¢	$1,000	0x700d25…
06-21 20:25:37	fifwc bel irn 2026 06 21 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	1,137	88¢	$1,000	0x80dc75…
06-21 13:23:29	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	BUY	2,708	96¢	$2,600	0xd418a2…
06-21 00:24:08	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,692	13¢	$220	0x4fcbf3…
06-20 23:30:38	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xb58e01…
06-20 23:29:01	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	111	10¢	$11	0x13d09c…
06-20 23:27:28	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	547	11¢	$60	0x5be61b…
06-20 23:25:50	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	953	11¢	$105	0xc4c2c8…
06-20 23:05:26	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	28	10¢	$3	0x75c342…
06-20 23:05:19	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	208	10¢	$21	0xd7df33…