Faraway-Hardcover — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$51.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$4.90K

Hit rate

79.9%

Resolved

351

Trades

2,478

lifetime

Volume

$1.39M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$563

Open exposure

$14.7K

16 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-19 09:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 126 days

Categories

Politics

55% 76% +$62,259

Other

31% 66% -$31,610

Crypto

6% 50% +$24,747

Sports

5% 40% -$4,294

Tech

3% 67% +$532

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+4,848	$4,240	79¢	$3.8K	-$408	10-19 09:02
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+5,735	$4,183	62¢	$3.6K	-$598	09-07 09:15
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	-2,046	-$2,938	100¢	$-2039	+$899	10-19 08:58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+10,353	$5,155	16¢	$1.7K	-$3,447	06-12 11:19
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	-1,282	-$1,551	100¢	$-1277	+$274	10-19 09:01
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	+5,714	$2,000	14¢	$771	-$1,229	06-04 20:07
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	-758	-$416	92¢	$-693	-$278	06-15 14:41
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	+284	$250	91¢	$259	+$9	08-08 11:53
Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	-234	-$487	80¢	$-188	+$299	10-19 09:03
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+348	$250	44¢	$151	-$99	05-05 09:38
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	+500	$115	10¢	$50	-$65	07-01 12:59
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+67	$46	65¢	$43	-$3	05-20 20:20
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+500	$150	8¢	$42	-$108	05-05 09:39
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	No	+35	$30	91¢	$32	+$2	06-10 18:50
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	+2,000	$25	1¢	$22	-$3	08-27 11:58
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+0	$150	36¢	$0	-$150	06-15 18:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	38	$80.7K	65,661	65,661	+0	No	+$25,146	06-01 21:55
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	19	$39.1K	31,242	19,799	+11,444	No	-$79	01-27 17:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	100	$34.7K	77,874	21,838	+56,036	Yes	+$23,418	06-14 23:53
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	58	$32.3K	18,758	16,557	+2,201	No	+$2,279	04-22 09:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	25	$32.0K	24,537	9,000	+15,537	No	+$1,526	05-19 17:22
Iran leadership change by December 31?	2	$30.4K	17,647	17,647	+0	open	—	10-19 09:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	22	$24.7K	31,951	0	+31,951	No	+$677	06-26 12:37
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	8	$20.5K	21,481	500	+20,981	No	+$1,453	05-22 23:31
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$19.7K	50,000	50,000	+0	No	+$2,183	07-14 19:48
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	35	$17.5K	27,589	27,589	+0	No	-$7,489	09-11 13:01
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	68	$16.4K	28,334	842	+27,491	Yes	-$15,826	06-21 00:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$16.3K	15,560	1,260	+14,300	No	+$559	05-11 22:05
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$15.7K	50,000	50,000	+0	No	+$1,021	07-12 03:23
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	24	$15.0K	17,052	0	+17,052	No	+$2,048	05-19 17:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$15.0K	16,798	0	+16,798	No	+$1,797	05-24 13:51
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	1	$15.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	No	+$5,000	06-27 11:14
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	1	$15.0K	17,045	0	+17,045	Argentina	-$15,000	07-07 17:40
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$15.0K	16,049	0	+16,049	No	+$1,049	05-01 16:15
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	5	$15.0K	18,160	0	+18,160	No	+$3,176	01-23 19:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	35	$14.9K	33,553	9,615	+23,937	Yes	+$11,750	06-14 22:11
Kash Patel out by May 31?	16	$14.0K	15,764	0	+15,764	No	+$1,762	05-24 12:15
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	16	$13.3K	7,832	7,832	+0	No	+$2,308	04-02 08:37
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	25	$13.1K	19,513	0	+19,513	No	+$6,403	04-19 11:05
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	48	$13.0K	16,044	0	+16,044	No	+$3,028	03-09 11:57
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	4	$12.6K	16,265	0	+16,265	No	+$3,617	01-23 19:51
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	6	$12.3K	6,750	6,750	+0	No	+$1,094	06-23 02:18
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	2	$12.0K	13,588	0	+13,588	No	+$1,586	05-24 12:18
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	14	$11.9K	15,131	5,850	+9,281	Yes	+$9,023	06-17 21:30
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	3	$11.6K	10,194	1,600	+8,594	No	+$179	05-28 13:54
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	10	$11.5K	14,264	0	+14,264	Yes	+$2,763	06-12 18:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 09:07:57	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	17,647	87¢	$15,425	0xf99d59…
10-19 09:06:30	UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	No	SELL	445	89¢	$396	0x82e832…
10-19 09:06:00	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	No	SELL	2,500	0¢	$5	0xbb5317…
10-19 09:05:09	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	735	76¢	$557	0x74a4a0…
10-19 09:04:42	Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	SELL	500	92¢	$458	0x6bb4ac…
10-19 09:04:06	Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	No	SELL	1,124	90¢	$1,014	0x6daff1…
10-19 09:03:33	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	SELL	995	79¢	$786	0xcb0c4a…
10-19 09:02:51	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,422	74¢	$3,260	0x1efac5…
10-19 09:02:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6,866	84¢	$5,768	0x94a8ac…
10-19 09:01:57	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,200	89¢	$1,068	0x57d0a2…
10-19 09:01:14	Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	SELL	2,226	99¢	$2,202	0x398a69…
10-19 09:00:42	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,814	93¢	$2,624	0x6a9a90…
10-19 08:59:41	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	2,874	97¢	$2,788	0xd85a88…
10-19 08:58:20	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	3,628	98¢	$3,539	0x797b20…
09-11 13:01:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7,178	18¢	$1,292	0xa7d611…
09-11 13:01:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	326	18¢	$59	0x4fdb8f…
09-11 13:01:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	139	18¢	$25	0x217fd2…
09-11 13:01:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	19,946	18¢	$3,617	0xa035f2…
09-07 09:15:48	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	417	78¢	$325	0x8ce379…
09-07 06:21:40	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xbf8c6d…
09-07 03:10:09	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	84	78¢	$66	0x6614ec…
09-06 19:05:43	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xcf2e1b…
09-06 17:03:54	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	SELL	3,000	9¢	$263	0x800806…
09-06 14:55:48	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	153	78¢	$119	0x0d565d…
09-06 01:43:10	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	BUY	2,060	17¢	$350	0xab813e…
09-06 00:21:28	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	BUY	99	17¢	$17	0xce7290…
09-06 00:03:33	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	BUY	3	17¢	$0	0xedd04e…
09-05 23:58:28	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	BUY	14	17¢	$2	0x4405f4…
09-05 23:46:43	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	BUY	34	17¢	$6	0x5171d8…
09-05 23:42:13	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x003bb2…
09-05 23:35:33	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	BUY	788	17¢	$134	0x57c12d…
09-05 21:06:42	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x3c0cb2…
09-05 21:02:39	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	139	78¢	$108	0xa2cbbd…
09-05 20:50:03	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	185	78¢	$145	0x1d3957…
09-05 20:37:16	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x490409…
09-05 19:46:54	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x6a543a…
09-05 19:46:21	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xdf3c28…
09-01 17:16:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,500	39¢	$975	0xa38a81…
09-01 09:32:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,829	41¢	$750	0x9addbc…
08-31 18:39:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,659	43¢	$714	0xfacac1…
08-31 18:38:27	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x9539d1…
08-31 17:27:37	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	402	89¢	$358	0x39997d…
08-31 15:50:54	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	120	89¢	$107	0x3a0e9c…
08-31 14:19:57	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	283	89¢	$252	0x0600dc…
08-31 13:12:18	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	38	89¢	$33	0xadadc5…
08-31 12:50:43	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xc41f4c…
08-31 02:03:25	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x07cddd…
08-31 01:39:34	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	19	89¢	$17	0xfadb24…
08-31 01:21:13	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	14	89¢	$13	0x844842…
08-31 00:12:28	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	735	68¢	$500	0xff95d0…
08-31 00:12:07	Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	No	BUY	1,124	89¢	$1,000	0xe78184…
08-31 00:09:43	Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,200	86¢	$1,032	0x89995a…
08-31 00:05:04	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 28	No	BUY	1,250	80¢	$1,000	0x8a6f69…
08-30 23:33:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,938	46¢	$1,811	0x6c429a…
08-30 23:30:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	966	46¢	$444	0xff4117…
08-30 23:28:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	79	46¢	$36	0x76ce46…
08-30 23:12:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	46¢	$276	0x98dc85…
08-30 23:02:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xcd2fd7…
08-30 23:01:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$4	0x4b8e52…
08-30 22:58:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x28831e…
08-30 22:45:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xca0849…
08-30 22:45:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	37	46¢	$17	0x1caa65…
08-30 22:45:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,136	46¢	$523	0x4cee3e…
08-30 22:39:30	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0xd4ec2f…
08-30 22:39:30	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	16	89¢	$14	0x8d0124…
08-30 22:39:30	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x0a83bd…
08-30 22:39:28	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xd79b94…
08-30 22:39:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,781	46¢	$1,279	0x19d25a…
08-30 22:06:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,294	46¢	$595	0x17d63c…
08-30 20:59:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	310	47¢	$146	0x0b7b98…
08-30 20:55:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x7987cf…
08-30 20:54:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,394	47¢	$655	0x7cbdd6…
08-30 20:48:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	47¢	$94	0x952b11…
08-30 20:39:51	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x6a0d63…
08-30 20:37:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	47¢	$8	0x8c518f…
08-30 20:36:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	150	47¢	$70	0x6e10fe…
08-30 20:35:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x12b978…
08-30 20:29:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	22	47¢	$10	0xd5b6af…
08-30 20:28:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x1ccbd3…
08-30 20:28:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,125	47¢	$529	0xde6c81…
08-30 20:25:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,125	47¢	$529	0x2826ac…
08-30 20:25:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	750	47¢	$352	0x78f334…
08-30 20:23:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	190	47¢	$90	0x4b9f18…
08-30 20:20:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	209	47¢	$98	0x5cd3d5…
08-30 20:20:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	47¢	$94	0x028033…
08-30 20:16:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,991	47¢	$2,346	0xb516ac…
08-30 19:51:10	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	2,857	35¢	$1,000	0xc6c266…
08-30 19:35:03	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	113	78¢	$88	0x2716f1…
08-30 19:26:24	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	17,647	85¢	$15,000	0x374b49…
08-27 11:58:54	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	527	1¢	$6	0xf3e955…
08-27 11:58:54	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0b522c…
08-27 11:58:46	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x146b22…
08-27 11:41:40	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xca6e0c…
08-27 09:11:27	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x831880…
08-27 09:05:22	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xa30020…
08-26 23:19:04	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	134	1¢	$2	0x87a19c…
08-26 22:46:00	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x104aa5…
08-26 22:40:21	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x632f1c…
08-26 22:40:21	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x1f4cd4…
08-08 11:59:09	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	800	65¢	$520	0x29b414…