Determined-Valuable — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17.1K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

12,250

lifetime

Volume

$9.54M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$779

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 08-12 16:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

67% 100% +$11,833

Other

26% 100% +$5,279

Crypto

5% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 282 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	218	$358.5K	350,048	220,048	+130,000	open	—	03-02 21:46
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	374	$302.3K	311,999	238,768	+73,231	open	—	02-28 07:15
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	356	$297.3K	166,870	166,870	+0	open	—	05-31 18:12
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	241	$295.8K	231,866	191,484	+40,382	open	—	03-07 23:35
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	108	$293.1K	236,191	126,191	+110,000	open	—	06-03 21:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	74	$245.1K	124,723	124,723	+0	open	—	04-28 22:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	276	$211.1K	433,423	466,588	-33,165	open	—	05-29 15:45
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	87	$208.8K	113,817	104,078	+9,739	open	—	04-30 19:55
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	147	$162.7K	183,521	53,521	+130,000	open	—	04-07 21:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	317	$158.8K	391,744	391,542	+203	open	—	05-03 13:49
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	156	$158.6K	114,962	82,076	+32,886	open	—	08-12 03:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	105	$153.1K	103,583	103,583	+0	open	—	06-02 16:22
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	59	$148.2K	138,198	15,000	+123,198	open	—	03-04 16:18
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	76	$140.4K	104,139	70,982	+33,157	open	—	01-18 07:20
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	83	$139.6K	152,553	152,553	+0	open	—	02-28 06:25
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	79	$136.1K	165,139	45,139	+120,000	open	—	04-24 19:00
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	93	$135.4K	113,589	121,924	-8,335	open	—	02-28 06:36
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	193	$134.6K	99,039	87,068	+11,971	open	—	03-26 20:59
iran closes its airspace by june 8	77	$129.9K	73,932	73,932	+0	open	—	06-08 08:51
will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	28	$126.6K	103,299	28,000	+75,299	open	—	02-28 23:05
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	404	$112.2K	178,733	155,970	+22,763	open	—	04-22 09:08
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	12	$107.5K	54,567	54,567	+0	open	—	05-01 05:59
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	60	$106.1K	96,680	31,858	+64,822	open	—	02-03 21:23
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	60	$100.6K	61,712	48,798	+12,914	open	—	02-20 20:52
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	55	$100.3K	86,298	86,298	+0	open	—	02-28 07:10
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	324	$98.9K	187,017	72,331	+114,686	open	—	06-14 16:27
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	14	$88.5K	80,035	10,035	+70,000	open	—	04-30 05:31
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	70	$88.1K	115,813	5,813	+110,000	open	—	03-09 04:37
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	166	$87.2K	194,509	194,509	+0	open	—	04-05 06:43
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	48	$83.0K	109,414	15,156	+94,258	open	—	05-31 15:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 16:52:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,505	47¢	$707	0x37461d…
08-12 16:06:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	47¢	$3	0xe0812c…
08-12 15:43:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	60	47¢	$28	0x3ae584…
08-12 14:48:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	47¢	$94	0xc7eb02…
08-12 14:47:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x3fb3a0…
08-12 14:39:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	47¢	$470	0xaecb59…
08-12 14:35:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	250	47¢	$118	0x9d0eb0…
08-12 14:09:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	15	47¢	$7	0x456161…
08-12 12:41:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	221	91¢	$201	0x8676c0…
08-12 12:39:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0xf47c2f…
08-12 12:36:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	28	91¢	$26	0x6c2813…
08-12 12:29:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,959	47¢	$921	0xe642cd…
08-12 12:28:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	28	91¢	$26	0xae5719…
08-12 12:18:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x1e5ec9…
08-12 12:18:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xd8a946…
08-12 12:18:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	28	91¢	$26	0xcf07a9…
08-12 12:16:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	4,525	91¢	$4,117	0xbb7f08…
08-12 12:11:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	28	91¢	$26	0xed3c64…
08-12 12:11:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	5	91¢	$4	0x9ecd10…
08-12 12:10:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x729d9b…
08-12 12:09:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xe38560…
08-12 12:09:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	120	91¢	$109	0x09e9b8…
08-12 11:50:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	2,306	65¢	$1,499	0x0740c4…
08-12 11:49:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	3,000	92¢	$2,760	0x49aa7f…
08-12 07:30:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	5,000	90¢	$4,500	0x1f7f86…
08-12 03:01:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	20,000	81¢	$16,200	0xd2c20e…
08-11 22:51:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xdfc729…
08-11 21:59:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x081c90…
08-11 21:31:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3,075	49¢	$1,507	0x225d76…
08-11 21:13:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xab7648…
08-11 21:13:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x8009e3…
08-11 21:13:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x7f607f…
08-11 21:13:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xc5c17c…
08-11 21:13:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	49¢	$2	0x39e30b…
08-11 21:13:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xc74659…
08-11 21:13:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x968ec3…
08-11 21:13:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x6551af…
08-11 21:13:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x1b2320…
08-11 21:13:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	310	49¢	$152	0x6298cc…
08-11 21:13:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	17	49¢	$8	0x311c04…
08-11 21:13:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	21	49¢	$10	0xed10e5…
08-11 21:08:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x4f6def…
08-11 21:06:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xcb88af…
08-11 21:06:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xcc11eb…
08-11 21:06:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xc4327b…
08-11 21:06:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x332e33…
08-11 21:06:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x5e4308…
08-11 21:06:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,536	49¢	$753	0x786ef8…
08-11 20:57:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	167	88¢	$147	0xb80623…
08-11 20:14:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	515	60¢	$309	0xf2c24d…
08-11 18:54:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	42	88¢	$37	0x80bceb…
08-11 18:15:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x230cb9…
08-11 18:08:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0x6d9ad7…
08-11 18:08:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	222	60¢	$133	0x324c02…
08-11 18:07:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x0e67f2…
08-11 18:07:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0xea6a0e…
08-11 18:07:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	3,041	60¢	$1,824	0xa33c06…
08-11 18:06:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10,000	48¢	$4,800	0x3e357c…
08-11 17:49:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0xebe4b6…
08-11 17:40:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xcbe971…
08-11 17:38:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	550	88¢	$484	0x096a01…
08-11 17:32:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x650b8b…
08-11 17:15:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xf43934…
08-11 17:15:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xa7439c…
08-11 17:12:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4,872	50¢	$2,436	0x776f2e…
08-11 17:00:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x17c9f8…
08-11 17:00:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x6ab842…
08-11 17:00:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1,271	88¢	$1,119	0x5566e8…
08-11 16:33:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x6a3214…
08-11 16:33:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	833	88¢	$733	0xcb8f04…
08-11 16:26:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	126	50¢	$63	0xa2226b…
08-11 15:39:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5,000	49¢	$2,450	0xaa9916…
08-11 14:58:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	81	88¢	$71	0x079e79…
08-11 14:58:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3,400	82¢	$2,788	0x83552f…
08-11 14:58:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	455	82¢	$373	0x9541ed…
08-11 14:57:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	721	82¢	$591	0x24f85a…
08-11 14:37:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	15	88¢	$13	0x0d6fbb…
08-11 14:36:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xe88814…
08-11 14:27:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	3,863	83¢	$3,207	0x2d1d06…
08-11 14:25:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x5af6db…
08-11 14:21:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1,295	88¢	$1,140	0xc5191c…
08-11 14:19:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x6ae641…
08-11 14:19:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0xeafd31…
08-11 14:19:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x230065…
08-11 14:19:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x73f801…
08-11 14:18:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xb20610…
08-11 14:02:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xd38529…
08-11 14:02:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0xab69d2…
08-11 14:01:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	2,791	97¢	$2,708	0x1ba5f8…
08-11 13:54:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	22	88¢	$20	0x713d28…
08-11 13:51:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	500	83¢	$415	0x93f2b3…
08-11 13:46:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	26	97¢	$25	0xd94388…
08-11 13:36:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	28	97¢	$27	0x181507…
08-11 13:33:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	290	97¢	$281	0x9f1953…
08-11 13:33:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xb70f49…
08-11 13:28:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0xe666aa…
08-11 13:27:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	51	97¢	$49	0x609daa…
08-11 13:21:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0x6201c6…
08-11 13:19:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	72	83¢	$59	0x41bbca…
08-11 13:19:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	458	83¢	$380	0x95b7a5…