Determined-Valuable 0x614dc8…1d1546
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$610.4K
Unrealized P&L
+$23.0K
Hit rate
67.0%
Resolved
443
Trades
20,887
lifetime
Volume
$15.7M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$751
Open exposure
$610.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 10-31 19:41
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 162 days
Categories
Politics
71% 67% +$436,586
Other
25% 78% +$195,779
Crypto
3% 81% +$25,838
Sports
1% 67% -$48,948
Tech
0% 50% +$1,177
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 576 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -100,000 -$92,267 82¢ $-82500 +$9,767 10-11 21:06
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +79,873 $81,637 100¢ $79.5K -$2,163 10-31 15:22
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -85,001 -$72,521 86¢ $-72676 -$155 09-14 06:24
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +100,000 $64,551 70¢ $70.5K +$5,949 10-28 17:10
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 Yes +50,000 $42,205 100¢ $50.0K +$7,795 10-26 01:09
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +60,000 $38,150 71¢ $42.6K +$4,450 10-21 23:42
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +40,000 $33,319 88¢ $35.4K +$2,081 10-25 23:07
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -31,984 -$29,184 85¢ $-27315 +$1,869 09-02 19:26
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +27,057 $20,390 100¢ $26.9K +$6,532 10-31 19:41
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -31,801 -$27,997 84¢ $-26745 +$1,252 10-30 09:38
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? Bibi +20,719 $18,509 99¢ $20.5K +$2,003 10-28 02:12
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +23,703 $21,055 71¢ $16.8K -$4,225 10-26 02:20
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -15,000 -$12,600 94¢ $-14175 -$1,575 05-06 18:35
Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? No +10,752 $9,877 100¢ $10.7K +$838 10-28 02:06
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -8,713 -$7,754 96¢ $-8386 -$632 06-01 04:46
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes +41,034 $6,565 16¢ $6.8K +$205 10-20 20:42
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +7,500 $3,890 70¢ $5.2K +$1,322 10-20 22:33
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +5,000 $3,500 74¢ $3.7K +$175 09-20 16:37
Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? Yes +2,688 $366 96¢ $2.6K +$2,224 10-28 01:50
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +3,000 $990 56¢ $1.7K +$690 10-27 03:33
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,868 $1,698 88¢ $1.7K -$45 10-15 14:11
Will Ra'am win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? No +1,312 $978 99¢ $1.3K +$323 10-28 01:57
Will Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +1,000 $466 99¢ $994 +$528 10-28 01:11
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +915 $686 78¢ $709 +$23 10-29 17:46
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +11,205 $654 4¢ $504 -$150 10-27 20:40
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +14,700 $10,917 1¢ $147 -$10,770 10-26 01:00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +229 $4,033 40¢ $91 -$3,942 10-29 17:17
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes -36,457 -$80 0¢ $-91 -$11 10-28 00:01
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes -36,757 -$467 0¢ $-55 +$412 10-27 06:55
Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? Yes +2,500 $1,856 2¢ $50 -$1,806 10-29 10:48