Determined-Valuable 0x614dc8…1d1546
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$612.0K
Unrealized P&L
+$12.7K
Hit rate
66.9%
Resolved
453
Trades
20,902
lifetime
Volume
$15.7M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$751
Open exposure
$474.0K
28 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 11-01 05:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 163 days
Categories
Politics
71% 67% +$436,916
Other
25% 78% +$196,989
Crypto
3% 81% +$25,838
Sports
1% 67% -$48,948
Tech
0% 50% +$1,177
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 576 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -100,000 -$92,267 82¢ $-82500 +$9,767 10-11 21:06
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -85,001 -$72,521 87¢ $-73951 -$1,430 09-14 06:24
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +100,000 $64,551 70¢ $70.5K +$5,949 10-28 17:10
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 Yes +50,000 $42,205 100¢ $49.8K +$7,545 10-26 01:09
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +60,000 $38,150 70¢ $42.3K +$4,150 10-21 23:42
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +40,000 $33,319 88¢ $35.4K +$2,081 10-25 23:07
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -31,984 -$29,184 86¢ $-27379 +$1,805 09-02 19:26
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -31,801 -$27,997 84¢ $-26745 +$1,252 10-30 09:38
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +23,703 $21,055 70¢ $16.7K -$4,344 10-26 02:20
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -15,000 -$12,600 94¢ $-14175 -$1,575 05-06 18:35
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -8,713 -$7,754 97¢ $-8430 -$675 06-01 04:46
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes +41,034 $6,565 16¢ $6.8K +$205 10-20 20:42
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +7,500 $3,890 68¢ $5.1K +$1,172 10-20 22:33
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +5,000 $3,500 74¢ $3.7K +$225 09-20 16:37
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? Yes +3,820 $3,553 94¢ $3.6K +$19 10-31 21:33
Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? Yes +2,688 $366 97¢ $2.6K +$2,251 10-28 01:50
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +3,000 $990 56¢ $1.7K +$690 10-27 03:33
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,868 $1,698 88¢ $1.7K -$45 10-15 14:11
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +11,205 $654 8¢ $840 +$186 10-27 20:40
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +196 $133 76¢ $150 +$17 11-01 06:02
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +229 $4,033 36¢ $83 -$3,950 10-29 17:17
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +0 -$1,897 94¢ $0 +$1,897 10-25 13:10
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? Yes +0 $0 92¢ $0 +$0 10-21 05:31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +0 -$5,872 92¢ $0 +$5,872 08-28 14:01
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +0 -$713 88¢ $0 +$713 09-24 16:56
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +0 $7,504 62¢ $0 -$7,504 10-28 03:39
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Yes +0 $2,919 14¢ $0 -$2,919 08-13 23:45
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Yes +0 $10,673 0¢ $0 -$10,673 10-23 22:00