Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8.67K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.33K

Hit rate

50.5%

Resolved

Trades

428

lifetime

Volume

$192.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$450

Open exposure

$18.5K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-19 21:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Other

69% 74% -$6,839

Politics

26% 56% -$2,171

Crypto

5% 100% +$343

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-7,170	-$3,901	96¢	$-6894	-$2,993	06-05 14:05
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	+4,523	$3,871	92¢	$4.1K	+$268	10-13 21:31
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+4,000	$3,560	94¢	$3.8K	+$220	09-02 18:54
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	+1,186	$1,260	96¢	$1.1K	-$115	08-06 23:04
Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	+1,108	$942	86¢	$959	+$17	10-10 11:19
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+1,000	$790	82¢	$825	+$35	08-03 19:27
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+750	$481	97¢	$724	+$243	10-19 21:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	73	$36.7K	20,465	20,465	+0	Yes	-$1,246	07-21 14:35
israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	18	$16.4K	12,064	5,069	+6,996	No	-$55	07-11 13:17
fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	7	$9.1K	5,588	5,588	+0	Spain	-$920	07-10 20:22
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	37	$8.9K	5,986	4,800	+1,186	open	—	08-06 23:04
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	27	$8.0K	7,516	1,910	+5,606	No	+$192	07-26 17:24
israel closes its airspace by july 24	13	$7.6K	7,350	898	+6,452	No	+$424	07-22 19:45
megaquake by january 31	4	$7.5K	8,000	0	+8,000	No	+$520	01-02 14:32
megaquake by march 31	12	$7.0K	8,258	0	+8,258	No	+$1,308	03-06 17:53
nothing ever happens january	29	$6.9K	9,314	0	+9,314	No	-$6,929	01-02 14:30
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	27	$6.6K	6,800	0	+6,800	Yes	+$170	07-09 21:32
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	30	$6.2K	6,720	0	+6,720	Yes	+$510	01-02 20:13
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	21	$5.2K	5,659	0	+5,659	Yes	+$496	07-07 21:54
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	28	$4.5K	4,360	4,360	-0	Yes	-$2,577	02-28 13:50
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$4.1K	3,529	3,529	-0	open	—	08-26 22:20
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	1	$4.0K	4,500	0	+4,500	Yes	+$450	07-10 20:51
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	6	$3.9K	0	7,170	-7,170	open	—	06-05 14:05
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	5	$3.9K	4,523	0	+4,523	open	—	10-13 21:31
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	1	$3.8K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$180	08-19 11:34
israel closes its airspace by august 15	1	$3.8K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$240	08-06 23:06
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$3.6K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	09-02 18:54
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	6	$3.3K	1,673	1,673	+0	No	+$25	07-15 17:00
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	9	$2.9K	2,000	1,250	+750	open	—	10-19 21:19
will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	11	$2.8K	2,129	2,129	+0	No	-$711	02-07 02:54
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	3	$2.8K	1,500	1,400	+100	No	+$26	08-23 20:48
Nothing Ever Happens: October	2	$2.1K	2,212	0	+2,212	open	—	10-19 21:20
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	4	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	England	+$8	07-11 23:38
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	4	$1.8K	1,982	0	+1,982	France	+$149	07-09 21:26
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	3	$1.8K	1,300	1,300	+0	Yes	-$590	09-04 19:38
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-23?	1	$1.6K	1,700	0	+1,700	Yes	+$51	08-23 20:50
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	2	$1.3K	1,600	0	+1,600	No	+$264	07-06 20:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 21:20:06	Nothing Ever Happens: October	Nothing	BUY	1,257	97¢	$1,214	0x347124…
10-19 21:19:48	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,250	97¢	$1,212	0xe51d29…
10-14 20:25:18	nothing ever happens october 26	Nothing	BUY	955	95¢	$907	0x485487…
10-13 21:31:22	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	BUY	184	92¢	$169	0x830dda…
10-10 11:19:09	Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	BUY	1,108	85¢	$942	0x0e788c…
09-18 03:13:04	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x69872c…
09-04 19:43:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	No	BUY	766	81¢	$620	0xed0c8c…
09-04 19:38:33	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	SELL	500	39¢	$195	0xb28002…
09-04 19:05:55	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	SELL	800	53¢	$424	0x526b1a…
09-02 19:18:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	No	BUY	1,100	94¢	$1,034	0x5eea4b…
09-02 19:04:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x64231d…
09-02 18:54:21	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	4,000	89¢	$3,560	0xfcc7aa…
09-01 08:54:54	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x6c2835…
09-01 08:52:49	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	BUY	568	87¢	$494	0xd37e16…
08-26 22:20:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?	No	BUY	311	91¢	$283	0x486885…
08-26 22:20:00	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	289	52¢	$150	0xe4bf2c…
08-24 20:38:46	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	1,300	93¢	$1,209	0x0e119c…
08-24 20:33:07	Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	947	92¢	$871	0x205352…
08-24 20:33:01	Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x03bde5…
08-24 20:33:01	Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	163	92¢	$150	0x003c19…
08-24 19:06:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?	No	BUY	1,000	83¢	$830	0x419744…
08-24 18:17:51	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,240	43¢	$1,393	0xe29a71…
08-24 17:49:00	Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x18909a…
08-24 17:44:24	Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	130	90¢	$117	0x2e06ee…
08-24 17:44:22	Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x3fec47…
08-24 17:44:21	Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0x67b790…
08-24 17:44:03	Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xb72e82…
08-24 17:44:01	Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	132	90¢	$119	0x02e2ab…
08-24 17:43:34	Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	569	90¢	$512	0xdba1ab…
08-24 17:43:30	Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	31	90¢	$28	0x335a89…
08-23 20:50:34	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-23?	Yes	BUY	1,700	97¢	$1,649	0xc9f76e…
08-23 20:48:42	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	1,400	98¢	$1,369	0xac353d…
08-19 11:34:01	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	4,000	96¢	$3,820	0x09bc19…
08-06 23:06:18	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	4,000	94¢	$3,760	0xf9bf6d…
08-06 23:04:56	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	4,800	80¢	$3,830	0xce33d6…
08-05 06:31:56	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	2,500	84¢	$2,100	0x993201…
08-03 19:27:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	388	79¢	$307	0xae548b…
08-03 19:26:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	45	79¢	$36	0x1e57ed…
08-03 19:26:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	567	79¢	$448	0x83fd5a…
08-03 19:25:17	spy up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	145	99¢	$144	0xba813d…
08-03 18:37:23	spy up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	199	100¢	$198	0x9fdf22…
08-03 18:34:06	spy up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	191	100¢	$190	0xa4b688…
08-03 18:00:32	spy up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	184	100¢	$183	0xe26163…
08-03 17:53:17	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0xc698e4…
08-03 17:40:38	spy up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	470	100¢	$467	0x2372c0…
08-03 17:23:08	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	67	85¢	$57	0xf466b7…
08-03 15:37:14	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	1,317	96¢	$1,267	0x69528f…
08-03 15:37:12	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	183	96¢	$177	0xa42c7a…
08-03 15:11:54	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x92ebc8…
08-03 12:59:53	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x574675…
08-03 11:39:11	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x4ddfd9…
08-03 10:32:14	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x0b9c82…
08-03 09:12:30	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	806	85¢	$685	0x2f95fb…
08-01 09:59:21	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	819	86¢	$704	0x4c1f29…
08-01 08:42:39	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	681	86¢	$586	0x04d7a2…
07-26 17:24:07	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	36	93¢	$34	0x9f8f06…
07-26 17:04:15	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	130	93¢	$121	0xfadabb…
07-26 16:38:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	16¢	$160	0x003270…
07-26 12:49:42	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	240	93¢	$223	0x55b72b…
07-26 12:23:03	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	85¢	$78	0xd1918f…
07-26 11:38:30	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x926c47…
07-26 11:05:13	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	654	85¢	$554	0x1cb8de…
07-26 10:26:06	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xdbff73…
07-26 10:26:04	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	370	85¢	$313	0x4e2429…
07-25 17:15:54	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	1,200	91¢	$1,092	0xc15e3d…
07-25 16:54:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0xeeab53…
07-25 16:28:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x0e2523…
07-25 16:23:45	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	70	88¢	$62	0xa1fa5e…
07-25 16:18:03	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	83	88¢	$73	0x0181be…
07-25 15:58:46	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	83	88¢	$73	0x00450d…
07-25 15:56:33	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	333	88¢	$293	0xbf352c…
07-25 15:40:07	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	12	88¢	$10	0xbc29bc…
07-25 15:38:33	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	83	88¢	$73	0xa5339a…
07-25 15:29:48	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x926e1e…
07-25 15:29:01	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x851636…
07-25 15:27:04	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	83	88¢	$73	0xe18779…
07-25 14:53:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	628	88¢	$553	0x941283…
07-25 14:04:13	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0x94780f…
07-25 13:30:57	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	2,000	89¢	$1,780	0x2332d3…
07-25 11:14:12	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	350	85¢	$296	0x5a0afe…
07-25 09:41:49	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	459	85¢	$389	0x29b3b0…
07-23 23:00:07	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	231	88¢	$203	0x44f512…
07-23 22:48:42	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	470	63¢	$296	0xd57aa9…
07-22 20:12:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	22¢	$221	0xa5fa86…
07-22 19:45:03	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x635311…
07-22 19:44:21	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	192	84¢	$162	0x39e33b…
07-22 19:44:09	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	600	84¢	$504	0x24c1bc…
07-22 19:41:27	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	125	84¢	$105	0xb1517c…
07-22 19:41:24	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	62	84¢	$52	0x1168f3…
07-22 17:46:12	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	1,440	70¢	$1,009	0x3b1742…
07-22 14:26:39	megaquake by july 31 20260617190926646	No	BUY	1,200	97¢	$1,164	0x9dd3ab…
07-22 14:25:22	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	SELL	190	87¢	$166	0xa72206…
07-22 14:25:21	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	SELL	17	87¢	$15	0xb1aba2…
07-22 14:25:19	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	SELL	680	87¢	$591	0x5af50b…
07-22 14:25:19	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	SELL	11	87¢	$10	0x4a1240…
07-22 10:24:36	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x21b6ae…
07-21 21:03:46	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x95eed1…
07-21 21:03:39	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x4f5ff4…
07-21 21:03:30	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xe6d84f…
07-21 21:03:28	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x1adf71…