Familiar-Drink — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$313

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.4%

Resolved

Trades

2,663

lifetime

Volume

$419.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$157

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-13 01:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

45% — —

Politics

45% 40% +$313

Tech

4% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	13	$80.5K	216,015	31,612	+184,403	open	—	02-13 13:31
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	118	$33.3K	48,867	32,784	+16,083	open	—	03-12 22:55
will solv energy incs market cap be greater than 5pt4b at market close on ipo day	14	$15.9K	9,519	7,600	+1,919	open	—	02-12 16:04
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	25	$15.5K	20,834	15,341	+5,493	open	—	03-31 15:27
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	30	$14.8K	22,007	11,680	+10,327	open	—	03-27 19:25
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	14	$12.4K	11,000	11,000	+0	open	—	02-20 17:54
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	187	$12.4K	14,156	11,514	+2,642	open	—	04-21 22:02
gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	18	$11.9K	6,545	6,545	+0	open	—	03-03 20:38
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	59	$11.6K	19,970	6,257	+13,713	open	—	03-24 15:47
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	8	$11.1K	22,501	1,532	+20,969	open	—	03-19 14:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	43	$10.6K	15,438	6,912	+8,526	open	—	03-12 15:14
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	22	$10.0K	8,892	8,297	+595	open	—	03-24 10:29
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	29	$8.6K	4,570	4,570	+0	open	—	03-03 14:42
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	50	$8.4K	11,828	2,076	+9,751	open	—	03-09 21:53
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	9	$7.8K	8,006	2,954	+5,053	open	—	03-20 19:46
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	45	$7.2K	5,180	3,067	+2,113	open	—	03-09 23:09
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	43	$6.7K	2,786	4,000	-1,214	open	—	06-03 22:19
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	29	$6.2K	5,276	9,304	-4,028	open	—	03-16 00:00
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	35	$5.6K	5,979	2,579	+3,400	open	—	07-07 12:49
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	24	$4.8K	41,813	2,032	+39,781	open	—	03-12 12:28
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	5	$4.3K	6,421	1,015	+5,406	open	—	03-10 13:19
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	28	$4.0K	11,663	6,224	+5,439	open	—	03-10 14:24
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	6	$3.6K	5,158	0	+5,158	open	—	03-08 17:50
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	48	$3.6K	6,036	1,364	+4,672	open	—	04-21 21:55
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	10	$3.6K	4,223	3,723	+500	open	—	02-18 14:03
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	4	$3.5K	1,966	1,961	+5	open	—	05-18 19:06
nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	18	$3.4K	8,018	326	+7,693	open	—	08-13 07:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	29	$3.2K	3,712	3,712	+0	open	—	05-18 23:25
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	6	$3.1K	0	3,653	-3,653	open	—	06-16 23:08
will two people exchanging saliva win best live action short film at the 98th academy awards	3	$2.9K	3,420	0	+3,420	open	—	03-16 00:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 07:34:39	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0xaff3be…
08-13 01:29:04	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	SELL	76	82¢	$62	0x65a089…
08-12 13:27:21	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	SELL	230	82¢	$189	0xf18ebd…
08-08 10:47:43	Will Illinois use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xb4dd85…
07-31 10:15:57	Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	85	9¢	$8	0xde58d0…
07-09 11:54:31	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	47	18¢	$8	0x6c4b60…
07-07 20:43:10	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	47	18¢	$8	0xe0a3fc…
07-07 20:28:32	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	553	18¢	$100	0x50f171…
07-07 19:56:10	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	58	18¢	$10	0x618392…
07-07 18:48:19	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	25	18¢	$4	0x4b23d2…
07-07 18:39:59	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x4a18b8…
07-07 13:26:38	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	BUY	4,552	40¢	$1,835	0x30789d…
07-07 13:25:59	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	2,049	36¢	$729	0xa8a449…
07-07 13:25:59	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	34	40¢	$14	0x30a7b4…
07-07 13:14:55	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x9ddf5d…
07-07 13:14:29	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x96fdab…
07-07 13:13:46	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	BUY	109	79¢	$86	0xd27f75…
07-07 13:13:23	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	BUY	370	74¢	$272	0x6d7e54…
07-07 13:06:08	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	BUY	37	50¢	$19	0xf03000…
07-07 12:49:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	2,379	83¢	$1,975	0x15eff2…
07-07 11:08:02	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,559	63¢	$988	0xb9070b…
07-06 23:53:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0x5bb5aa…
07-06 23:47:28	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	54	81¢	$43	0xdd485b…
07-06 23:47:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x807913…
07-06 23:46:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	53	81¢	$43	0x78ef19…
07-06 23:46:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	8	81¢	$7	0xd9ca51…
07-06 23:46:25	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x16f9da…
07-06 23:46:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	374	81¢	$303	0xb0140b…
07-06 23:46:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	53	81¢	$43	0xfb384f…
07-06 23:45:56	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	353	81¢	$286	0xf498b8…
07-06 23:43:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,000	81¢	$810	0x91383d…
07-06 23:21:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1,487	14¢	$208	0x09dd7a…
07-06 23:21:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xd045f3…
07-06 23:21:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x87acca…
07-06 23:20:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	36	86¢	$31	0xcc8ae3…
07-06 23:20:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x48caeb…
07-06 23:19:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	39	86¢	$34	0x0e2c72…
07-06 23:19:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xb9b768…
07-06 23:19:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	37	86¢	$32	0xa9213d…
07-06 23:19:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	19	86¢	$16	0x46798b…
07-06 23:19:28	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	33	86¢	$28	0x9cea31…
07-06 23:19:28	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	86	86¢	$74	0x06a683…
07-06 23:18:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	800	86¢	$688	0xa8b9e2…
07-06 23:10:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	129	87¢	$112	0x605ec2…
07-06 23:09:59	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	33	87¢	$29	0x7b80af…
07-06 23:09:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	12	87¢	$11	0x33a7ff…
07-06 23:09:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	26	87¢	$23	0x7218ca…
07-06 22:40:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	99	16¢	$16	0x193f66…
07-06 22:40:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0x067585…
07-06 22:39:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	40	16¢	$6	0x949362…
07-06 22:39:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	57	16¢	$9	0x52c4a2…
07-06 22:37:35	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	200	14¢	$28	0x9cd799…
07-06 22:37:17	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	200	14¢	$28	0x20769d…
07-06 22:36:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xa6ec51…
07-06 22:36:08	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	188	80¢	$150	0xc9311b…
07-06 18:37:13	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	119	63¢	$75	0x5d714e…
07-06 13:22:26	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	33¢	$8	0xd59337…
07-06 13:22:16	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	18¢	$4	0x201759…
07-06 13:20:34	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	27¢	$66	0xa84ddb…
07-06 13:05:34	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,710	59¢	$1,016	0x0c01aa…
07-03 21:15:29	fifwc col gha 2026 07 03 goals richard rios gte1	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x664720…
06-23 13:52:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	No	SELL	100	29¢	$29	0x8fa082…
06-23 13:52:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	No	SELL	300	29¢	$87	0xa5a6e1…
06-23 13:51:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	No	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x69b2ce…
06-23 13:51:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	No	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x1c001e…
06-23 13:51:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	No	SELL	100	29¢	$29	0xa7fd8d…
06-23 13:51:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x9c81fa…
06-23 10:49:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	No	BUY	6,233	31¢	$1,960	0x2f2418…
06-22 21:27:01	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x401c8a…
06-22 14:22:13	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x60ce50…
06-22 14:14:05	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	BUY	44	80¢	$35	0x2c7070…
06-22 14:12:14	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	105	87¢	$91	0xaef500…
06-22 14:06:58	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	110	87¢	$95	0x925b5d…
06-22 12:36:38	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	BUY	85	89¢	$76	0x25ab15…
06-22 12:36:04	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	BUY	15	88¢	$13	0xdcf7e8…
06-22 12:30:08	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x9dbc65…
06-22 12:29:26	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	BUY	23	85¢	$19	0xc955eb…
06-22 12:29:16	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	105	86¢	$90	0xe0ce21…
06-22 12:29:10	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xc48389…
06-22 12:14:43	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	BUY	805	86¢	$696	0x977ad0…
06-22 12:11:31	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xa3b093…
06-22 12:11:10	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	298	90¢	$268	0x166464…
06-22 12:08:37	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	2	90¢	$1	0x85316f…
06-22 12:08:08	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0xfaf304…
06-22 12:07:49	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0xd1268f…
06-22 12:07:44	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	No	BUY	159	75¢	$119	0x9b8da8…
06-22 11:55:55	will mohammed bin salman sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950077	No	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0x555d7a…
06-22 11:55:41	will mohammed bin salman sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950077	No	BUY	112	87¢	$98	0x98a4cb…
06-22 10:35:26	will mohammed bin salman sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950077	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x49d65e…
06-22 10:34:46	will mohammed bin salman sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950077	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x18fe3b…
06-22 10:33:41	will mohammed bin salman sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950077	No	BUY	64	84¢	$53	0x373f86…
06-22 10:33:31	will mohammed bin salman sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950077	No	BUY	471	87¢	$409	0x801a07…
06-22 08:16:01	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	Yes	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xda20a9…
06-22 08:15:43	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	481	99¢	$477	0xef589e…
06-22 08:13:22	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	199	99¢	$197	0x15d576…
06-22 08:12:47	starmer out by august 31 2026 593 871 753 427 452	Yes	BUY	54	99¢	$54	0x10fec9…
06-22 08:12:40	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	265	98¢	$261	0x56d79b…
06-22 08:12:19	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	17	97¢	$16	0x112758…
06-22 08:10:56	starmer out by june 23 2026	No	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xa77c8e…
06-22 08:10:11	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xfdcd94…