Awkward-Epoch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

32.3%

Resolved

366

Trades

906

lifetime

Volume

$4.19K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

13 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 09-24 06:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 115 days

Categories

Other

73% 32% +$33

Politics

13% 29% -$1

Crypto

6% 14% -$12

Sports

5% 12% -$13

Tech

1% 0% -$5

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	+0	$0	96¢	$0	$0	07-28 09:32
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	+0	$0	78¢	$0	+$0	07-18 05:29
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$1	92¢	$0	-$1	05-31 07:41
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	+0	$0	90¢	$0	$0	07-21 12:56
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+0	$0	80¢	$0	$0	07-30 17:08
russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	Yes	+0	$0	73¢	$0	$0	08-07 06:25
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	No	+0	$0	33¢	$0	$0	08-06 03:54
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?	No	+0	$5	11¢	$0	-$5	08-06 07:57
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	No	+0	-$1	12¢	$0	+$1	08-04 13:53
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	+0	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	05-24 12:33
will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743	Yes	+0	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	08-11 08:09
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	+0	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	06-03 05:12
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	+0	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	06-14 07:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-24 06:16:57	Will Boise State have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xeac39a…
09-22 06:10:18	Will Boise State have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x0943d8…
09-21 15:05:13	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0x0daf8f…
09-15 06:04:13	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x2fc3f3…
09-14 10:43:00	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	SELL	5	49¢	$3	0xc27485…
09-14 10:27:15	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x08e6a2…
09-12 09:11:12	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xd16b09…
09-10 15:09:34	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xcaca89…
08-30 11:16:49	Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0x857ff8…
08-28 15:02:19	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xb33d06…
08-27 07:08:15	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	10	35¢	$3	0xb99ca9…
08-25 15:27:58	LoL: Lodis vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season	devils.one	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xecbad8…
08-23 08:06:31	LoL: Lodis vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season	devils.one	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x97b0a3…
08-23 06:30:25	Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Dignitas (+1.5)	FlyQuest	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0xf86d40…
08-22 09:21:18	us x iran ceasefire continues through september 15	No	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0xfaf02f…
08-22 08:24:33	cs2 5s kg 2026 08 22	Kaleido Gaming	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0xb1285a…
08-22 07:01:04	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0x04b849…
08-21 16:17:55	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xa2229e…
08-21 16:17:40	will notre dame have more than 10pt5 wins during the 2026 cfb season 20260810194028944	No	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0x242daf…
08-21 16:17:39	will oregon have more than 9pt5 wins during the 2026 cfb season 20260810194032766	No	SELL	11	32¢	$3	0xcae088…
08-21 14:57:57	cs2 5s kg 2026 08 22	Kaleido Gaming	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xd6a815…
08-21 13:53:39	Will Sílvia Cristina win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	Yes	SELL	13	15¢	$2	0x2f3ff3…
08-21 13:21:43	will north carolina have more than 6pt5 wins during the 2026 cfb season 20260810194027899	Yes	SELL	7	28¢	$2	0x51de1e…
08-21 12:11:18	chi qin sha 2026 08 22 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0xbe3509…
08-21 06:22:10	epl ars cov 2026 08 21 corners total 9pt5	Under	BUY	6	44¢	$2	0x483b54…
08-21 04:45:55	will newcastle united qualify for the 2027 28 uefa champions league	Yes	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0x6f6dd1…
08-20 16:08:58	atp tirante fils 2026 08 21 set totals 2pt5	Over 2.5	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x55c0c0…
08-20 09:58:09	will newcastle united qualify for the 2027 28 uefa champions league	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x0f540c…
08-20 09:49:54	elc bir bri 2026 08 22 btts	No	SELL	6	45¢	$3	0xfab388…
08-20 09:10:09	us x iran ceasefire continues through september 15	No	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x569ea7…
08-20 07:02:09	chi qin sha 2026 08 22 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0xc17ba7…
08-20 05:32:09	Will "Widow's Bay" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	No	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x680ca0…
08-19 15:20:10	Will Carlos Portinho win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?	Yes	SELL	11	13¢	$1	0x4f69e6…
08-19 13:52:28	Will Sílvia Cristina win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0xf35e4b…
08-19 12:55:03	will north carolina have more than 6pt5 wins during the 2026 cfb season 20260810194027899	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x87f3f9…
08-19 08:14:46	Will "Widow's Bay" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x904d28…
08-19 08:14:46	Will Carlos Portinho win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x28f811…
08-19 06:54:51	Will Plinio Valério win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?	Yes	BUY	19	11¢	$2	0x9ad759…
08-19 05:46:55	Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?	No	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0xca00f6…
08-19 05:46:48	will the highest score achieved by a moonshot kimi model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723191206824	Yes	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0xba234e…
08-19 05:44:00	elc bir bri 2026 08 22 btts	No	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x03ed14…
08-19 05:43:48	Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	16	30¢	$5	0x566629…
08-18 16:07:30	mlb mia phi 2026 08 18 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xf3f8d1…
08-18 16:07:28	will russia enter dobropillia by october 31	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x2b1418…
08-18 16:07:27	will notre dame have more than 10pt5 wins during the 2026 cfb season 20260810194028944	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xc13472…
08-18 16:07:25	will oregon have more than 9pt5 wins during the 2026 cfb season 20260810194032766	No	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0x99dee2…
08-17 05:23:46	will russia enter moskovka by august 31	Yes	SELL	4	14¢	$1	0x096f12…
08-16 12:16:25	Will the Eagles win the season series against the Giants during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xc98884…
08-14 16:24:58	Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	15	5¢	$1	0x8d065b…
08-14 05:48:04	Will the Eagles win the season series against the Giants during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xa11a7f…
08-14 05:47:55	Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	18¢	$3	0xa56be8…
08-14 05:47:45	lol we tes 2026 08 14	Top Esports	SELL	5	69¢	$4	0x1859b3…
08-14 05:47:43	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x638fd6…
08-11 16:07:06	Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $4.00 on August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	9¢	$1	0x4436f4…
08-11 08:09:51	will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743	Yes	SELL	13	9¢	$1	0xeb0d97…
08-11 07:21:52	will gleans valuation hit high 10b by december 31 20260701011238539	Yes	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0xf72a8c…
08-11 06:18:03	mlb cle det 2026 08 11 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xf0370f…
08-10 16:48:40	dota2 flc lgd 2026 08 12	LGD Gaming	SELL	15	18¢	$3	0xaacf08…
08-10 13:38:40	dota2 flc lgd 2026 08 12	LGD Gaming	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0xf59350…
08-10 12:42:25	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0xbdfa66…
08-10 11:30:36	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x5c860a…
08-10 09:20:28	Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	17	17¢	$3	0x4b904d…
08-10 07:05:46	Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xc430af…
08-10 05:03:33	lol we tes 2026 08 14	Top Esports	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xdaceeb…
08-10 05:03:31	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506	Yes	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0xf08e2a…
08-10 05:03:19	Will Alfred Cannan be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	No	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0xb7b9fb…
08-10 05:03:16	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	No	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0x91e9b0…
08-09 10:40:12	cricodc war lan 2026 08 09	Lancashire	SELL	7	43¢	$3	0x85203d…
08-09 10:16:22	Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $4.00 on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$3	0xe24c4b…
08-09 09:44:09	ostium fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0x10f042…
08-09 08:17:25	cricodc war lan 2026 08 09	Lancashire	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0xe5a787…
08-09 07:21:19	will gleans valuation hit high 10b by december 31 20260701011238539	Yes	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0x1b9011…
08-09 07:13:09	Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	No	SELL	6	42¢	$3	0x8eb1af…
08-09 06:41:24	Will Alfred Cannan be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?	No	BUY	8	71¢	$5	0xc7c60f…
08-09 06:41:12	Will Chuck Norris be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?	No	SELL	9	73¢	$7	0xeefd6d…
08-08 14:21:52	will any ai model reach a chatbot arena score of at least 1540 by december 31	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0x905ed3…
08-08 12:22:03	will any ai model reach a chatbot arena score of at least 1540 by december 31	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xd0a1d7…
08-08 10:46:03	Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0x3c7d47…
08-08 10:29:51	Will T1 Esports Academy win LCK CL 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	39¢	$4	0x5af10e…
08-08 10:14:00	Will Richard Jenkins – “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0xd08a3f…
08-08 09:18:12	will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xe9e0fb…
08-08 09:18:10	Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x189ab2…
08-08 09:18:01	Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x54eff1…
08-08 08:31:45	Will T1 Esports Academy win LCK CL 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x3ef695…
08-08 06:11:52	will russia enter moskovka by august 31	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0xe87e47…
08-07 15:21:01	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by september 30	No	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0x3911c7…
08-07 15:13:16	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	No	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x3a7d6e…
08-07 15:13:03	Will SV come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?	No	SELL	6	60¢	$3	0x7b0663…
08-07 14:19:57	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0xbddb44…
08-07 13:05:09	Jonathan Majors as Kang?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x77a5a3…
08-07 12:35:03	Will SV come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x3574ff…
08-07 10:10:12	Jonathan Majors as Kang?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x846982…
08-07 10:00:25	Will 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?	No	SELL	6	66¢	$4	0x114ec3…
08-07 09:38:13	ostium fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x474750…
08-07 09:22:10	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by september 30	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x1ec20d…
08-07 08:18:01	lol kt gen 2026 08 07	Gen.G	SELL	17	78¢	$13	0x9077af…
08-07 07:38:15	Will 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?	No	BUY	6	59¢	$3	0xa578f9…
08-07 07:36:58	will the highest score achieved by a moonshot kimi model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723191206824	Yes	SELL	29	11¢	$3	0x1c46ac…
08-07 07:21:07	Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x71db96…
08-07 06:57:07	will the highest score achieved by a moonshot kimi model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723191206824	Yes	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x2c4a79…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Paramount Skydance (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings?	2	$70	67	67	+0	Yes	+$62	05-04 20:08
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	7	$31	83	83	+0	No	-$1	05-22 05:31
atp tabilo grieksp 2026 07 27	3	$31	33	33	+0	Alejandro Tabilo	-$7	07-27 16:05
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	4	$29	19	19	+0	open	—	07-16 18:53
lol fox1 gen 2026 07 27	2	$26	24	24	+0	Gen.G	+$6	07-27 02:42
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	4	$25	17	17	+0	open	—	07-30 20:52
atp canas crawfor 2026 07 24	2	$24	23	23	+0	Oliver Crawford	+$6	07-24 16:03
Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?	4	$24	29	29	+0	open	—	07-25 05:20
itf schuman dadamas 2026 07 17	4	$24	30	30	+0	Aspen Schuman	+$6	07-17 10:49
Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?	2	$23	15	15	+0	Yes	+$3	08-01 05:35
lol kt gen 2026 08 07	2	$23	17	17	+0	Gen.G	+$3	08-07 08:18
atp rinderk tsitsip 2026 07 17	2	$23	15	15	+0	Stefanos Tsitsipas	+$3	07-17 16:27
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	2	$23	14	14	+0	No	+$3	07-29 14:19
grok 4pt4 released by june 30	3	$23	41	41	+0	No	+$9	06-07 13:59
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?	3	$22	21	21	+0	No	+$2	08-01 06:06
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	2	$22	14	14	+0	No	+$2	07-22 12:29
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$21	15	15	+0	open	—	07-30 17:08
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be between 136m and 144m?	3	$21	19	19	+0	No	+$1	07-24 11:52
will trump say transgender during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255816	2	$20	15	15	+0	No	+$2	07-20 11:36
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	2	$20	12	12	+0	No	+$0	07-21 05:25
Will Chuck Norris be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?	2	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	07-29 08:53
itf janicij schunk 2026 07 17	2	$20	19	18	+0	Nastasja Schunk	$0	07-17 10:41
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$19	13	13	+0	No	-$1	07-27 08:32
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?	2	$19	12	12	+0	No	-$1	07-23 08:52
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	2	$19	14	14	+0	No	-$1	07-20 16:36
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	2	$19	12	12	+0	No	-$1	07-20 07:41
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	2	$19	12	11	+0	No	-$1	07-30 03:56
will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	2	$19	12	12	+0	No	-$1	07-23 14:05
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 340m and 350m?	2	$19	12	12	+0	No	-$1	08-01 19:32
wta tauson krejcik 2026 07 18	2	$19	14	14	+0	Barbora Krejcikova	+$3	07-18 19:09