Close-Struggle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$46

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

89.6%

Resolved

Trades

593

lifetime

Volume

$7.88K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 08-07 19:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

49% 0% $-8

Other

29% — —

Politics

22% 100% +$55

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1769783400	8	$1.1K	580	580	+0	open	—	01-30 14:42
elon musk of tweets january 12 january 14 115 139	4	$361	212	212	+0	open	—	01-14 16:48
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	4	$353	200	200	+0	open	—	05-24 04:18
btc updown 15m 1769788800	7	$302	222	221	+1	open	—	01-30 16:10
elon musk of tweets january 10 january 12 115 139	5	$275	221	116	+105	open	—	01-12 16:23
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	2	$222	124	124	+0	open	—	07-01 14:30
will russia join the board of peace	5	$152	83	83	+0	open	—	03-05 12:46
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	4	$151	172	172	+0	open	—	01-17 09:46
pltr above 132 on march 31 2026	2	$147	100	100	+0	open	—	03-04 07:53
elon musk tweets january 8 january 10 215 239	8	$146	253	133	+120	open	—	01-10 16:03
btc updown 15m 1769697900	12	$133	151	35	+116	open	—	01-29 14:55
elon musk tweets january 8 january 10 165 189	4	$128	79	79	+0	open	—	01-10 14:30
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	4	$120	521	0	+521	open	—	07-13 12:52
Fed rate hike in 2026?	1	$120	230	0	+230	open	—	07-09 14:18
btc updown 15m 1769443200	2	$110	126	0	+126	open	—	01-26 16:07
btc updown 15m 1769699700	5	$103	134	0	+134	open	—	01-29 15:41
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$103	100	100	+0	open	—	01-25 06:29
btc updown 15m 1769616000	2	$89	40	59	-19	open	—	01-28 16:13
btc updown 15m 1769880600	11	$87	70	70	+0	open	—	01-31 17:37
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$87	0	100	-100	open	—	06-15 15:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$85	70	70	+0	Yes	+$55	05-09 04:55
btc updown 15m 1769615100	6	$83	120	0	+120	open	—	01-28 15:59
btc updown 15m 1769691600	5	$77	80	79	+1	open	—	01-29 13:14
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase january 13 19	2	$74	50	50	+0	open	—	01-12 13:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$67	38	38	+0	open	—	01-28 17:17
ostium fdv above 200m one day after launch	4	$66	457	0	+457	open	—	07-24 04:10
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$64	109	109	+0	open	—	01-16 13:45
israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by march 31 2026 824	4	$63	131	131	+0	open	—	01-27 22:22
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	3	$62	66	66	+0	open	—	01-27 12:42
btc updown 15m 1769924700	7	$58	69	68	+1	open	—	02-01 05:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-07 19:44:37	Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x1b08f3…
08-05 09:29:02	Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x6c0f3a…
08-03 09:27:32	Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb75ec1…
08-03 09:27:26	Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x264c26…
08-03 09:27:20	Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x4c2695…
08-03 09:27:12	Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x2d36b6…
08-03 09:27:08	Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x8956c4…
08-03 09:19:24	Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	120	6¢	$7	0x0f2399…
08-02 13:12:39	ostium fdv above 50m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x82e6a8…
07-24 04:13:07	Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	159	6¢	$9	0x9ef417…
07-24 04:12:33	Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	43	5¢	$2	0xab406c…
07-24 04:10:07	ostium fdv above 200m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	312	8¢	$25	0x8eab6d…
07-22 05:50:28	ostium fdv above 50m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0xc54f3d…
07-13 12:52:22	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Yes	BUY	440	23¢	$100	0x487325…
07-13 00:24:55	ostium fdv above 200m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x10e5f3…
07-12 18:56:50	ostium fdv above 200m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0x5a8075…
07-09 14:18:46	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	230	52¢	$120	0xdc705a…
07-09 12:50:43	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 7 2026 20260630182730885	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x6a0edb…
07-06 21:06:08	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	17¢	$1	0x916795…
07-06 19:30:14	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x621a55…
07-06 19:06:40	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	17¢	$0	0x65ee7e…
07-06 17:23:53	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	28	17¢	$5	0x5d0b71…
07-06 14:06:22	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xedb49c…
07-06 14:05:44	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	36¢	$11	0xd374ba…
07-06 13:50:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	30	28¢	$8	0xfbfec1…
07-06 13:50:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x14e714…
07-06 03:42:22	will elon post iran or iranian on x this week 20260626175121135	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xa6595d…
07-05 04:11:32	will trump meet with elon musk in july 2026 20260626153701913	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xf98f2e…
07-03 19:24:26	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 3 2026 20260630182730881	No	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0x57942b…
07-02 17:49:02	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 2 2026 20260630182730880	No	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x7b57c0…
07-02 13:34:14	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x767533…
07-02 13:32:38	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xf46343…
07-02 10:44:23	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 3 2026 20260630182730881	No	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xd2f858…
07-02 00:29:37	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 3 2026 20260630182730881	No	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x4218da…
07-01 14:30:58	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 2 2026 20260630182730880	No	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x4fdeb8…
07-01 14:30:01	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	124	98¢	$122	0x938082…
07-01 08:01:38	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 4 2026 20260630182730882	No	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x1a5190…
07-01 08:00:29	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 1 2026 20260630182730879	No	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x22a93b…
07-01 00:53:49	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x70f0f4…
06-30 17:51:25	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x0affc7…
06-29 08:23:19	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	124	81¢	$100	0x5bdac5…
06-28 11:41:04	Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x7b9863…
06-27 01:00:25	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x553b47…
06-26 10:12:02	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xf14553…
06-26 06:45:05	Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x49a281…
06-26 06:44:11	Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x57b102…
06-26 06:43:50	Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x6bfe02…
06-26 06:43:43	Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x0710cb…
06-26 06:43:17	ostium fdv above 200m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	64	31¢	$20	0x21a99d…
06-25 13:45:44	Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0xc01a38…
06-22 13:16:43	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x2681ac…
06-22 12:33:56	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xa85a6d…
06-21 04:52:37	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	26¢	$5	0xb81217…
06-21 04:52:13	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	26¢	$6	0x2a0fe9…
06-21 04:51:41	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0x9fa8a1…
06-20 11:32:14	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	No	SELL	14	84¢	$12	0xb05aa5…
06-20 01:17:10	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0xb30695…
06-19 15:56:08	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Yes	BUY	62	24¢	$15	0x65636b…
06-19 15:26:10	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	60	7¢	$4	0x6bdfcf…
06-19 15:21:53	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	30	54¢	$16	0x18f06b…
06-19 15:14:37	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0xcaf86d…
06-19 15:06:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x378805…
06-19 15:03:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x7c4620…
06-19 09:09:29	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0xaa97df…
06-19 09:06:25	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x99ad0d…
06-18 14:03:37	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xd3ad96…
06-18 14:03:37	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0xb42ce4…
06-18 14:00:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	25	38¢	$10	0x8ece15…
06-18 14:00:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xa72e8f…
06-18 13:49:34	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x09eccf…
06-16 16:05:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x67414a…
06-15 15:40:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	100	87¢	$87	0x668c0d…
06-15 15:34:57	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0xa78d5e…
05-24 04:18:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	188	86¢	$163	0xcaecaa…
05-24 04:15:29	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0x400fd9…
05-22 12:00:55	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	12	21¢	$3	0x37eca0…
05-22 11:59:01	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	BUY	42	21¢	$9	0x662f37…
05-21 10:24:39	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	195	90¢	$176	0x00d2de…
05-21 03:59:51	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x763fe8…
05-10 03:40:11	Bitcoin above 81,200 on May 10, 12AM ET?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x3b267d…
05-10 03:13:04	Bitcoin above 81,200 on May 10, 12AM ET?	Yes	SELL	149	1¢	$1	0xf06326…
05-10 03:05:17	Bitcoin above 81,200 on May 10, 12AM ET?	Yes	BUY	149	6¢	$9	0x0c050d…
05-09 15:18:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x1b558c…
05-09 04:58:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x5c4fa3…
05-09 04:55:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0xafc20f…
04-08 16:46:13	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xfd373f…
04-08 16:40:31	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	163	4¢	$7	0x18915c…
03-28 10:29:41	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	31	8¢	$2	0x2a83ce…
03-05 12:46:35	will russia join the board of peace	No	SELL	83	94¢	$78	0xe094e8…
03-05 12:44:39	will russia join the board of peace	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0x645376…
03-05 01:23:43	will russia join the board of peace	No	BUY	18	97¢	$18	0xd61336…
03-05 00:44:31	will russia join the board of peace	No	BUY	12	97¢	$11	0x682b13…
03-04 07:53:35	pltr above 132 on march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	100	69¢	$69	0x2425b8…
03-04 04:35:01	pltr above 132 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xefc960…
03-04 03:58:23	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	81	38¢	$31	0x818e5b…
03-03 14:05:43	will crude oil cl hit high 75 by end of march 216 621 736 725 922 826 757	No	SELL	500	1¢	$7	0x7460ee…
03-03 12:42:17	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	No	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0x47c226…
03-03 12:33:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0x4c1535…
03-03 12:32:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	260	0¢	$1	0xa43ceb…
03-03 12:10:09	will crude oil cl hit high 75 by end of march 216 621 736 725 922 826 757	No	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x75b5a4…