Realized P&L
+$751
Unrealized P&L
-$13
Hit rate
81.2%
Resolved
2,965
Trades
28,324
lifetime
Volume
$53.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$49
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 10-27 06:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 285 days
Categories
Other
46% 69% +$212
Politics
31% 76% +$488
Crypto
17% 69% +$37
Tech
4% 69% -$12
Sports
2% 70% +$25
Pop-Culture
0% 71% +$2
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 103 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +29 $3 14¢ $4 +$1 10-27 08:09
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? Yes +24 $3 16¢ $4 +$0 10-25 13:42
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? Yes +17 $3 21¢ $4 +$0 10-27 03:43
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? Yes +15 $3 21¢ $3 +$0 10-26 13:58
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes +35 $4 8¢ $3 -$1 10-21 10:36
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? No +30 -$2 9¢ $3 +$5 10-26 16:40
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +16 $3 17¢ $3 +$0 10-14 21:27
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? No +26 $7 9¢ $2 -$4 10-23 21:52
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No +27 $3 8¢ $2 -$1 10-21 09:42
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes +23 -$3 9¢ $2 +$5 10-26 18:44
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No +18 $4 12¢ $2 -$1 10-22 00:19
Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? Yes -32 -$2 5¢ $-2 $0 10-06 20:07
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026? Yes +16 $2 9¢ $1 -$1 10-23 22:30
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026? Yes +18 $4 8¢ $1 -$2 10-23 19:51
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? No +29 $6 4¢ $1 -$4 10-22 13:41
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? Yes +10 $0 13¢ $1 +$1 10-23 17:23
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? Yes +20 $3 6¢ $1 -$1 10-19 13:07
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? Yes +26 $3 4¢ $1 -$1 10-20 15:20
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -1 $0 96¢ $-1 $0 04-29 04:49
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes +34 $3 3¢ $1 -$3 10-16 16:31
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027? Yes +3 $0 28¢ $1 +$1 10-23 11:52
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026? Yes +11 $3 8¢ $1 -$3 10-21 13:52
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes -11 -$1 7¢ $-1 +$0 04-29 02:29
will nansen launch a token by december 31 2027 No +1 $0 78¢ $1 +$1 06-22 15:24
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? No +17 $2 4¢ $1 -$2 10-17 10:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October? Yes +22 $2 3¢ $1 -$1 10-24 10:02
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? Yes +22 $2 3¢ $1 -$1 10-22 02:57
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes +1 $0 60¢ $1 +$1 07-19 21:47
ilhan omar federally charged by october 31 2026 Yes +14 $2 4¢ $1 -$1 10-13 15:26
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? Yes +12 $0 4¢ $0 +$1 10-24 19:08