Realized P&L (7d)
+$1
Unrealized P&L
-$12
Hit rate
83.5%
Resolved (7d)
43
Trades (7d)
412
29,521 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$1.08K
$56.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$75
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 11-14 13:44
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 303 days
Categories
Other
47% 69% +$226
Politics
30% 76% +$493
Crypto
17% 69% +$33
Tech
4% 70% +$2
Sports
2% 70% +$25
Pop-Culture
0% 73% +$2
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 168 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes +34 $7 18¢ $6 -$1 10-29 19:01
Will Ko Chih-en win the next Kaohsiung Mayor election? Yes +24 $3 15¢ $4 +$1 11-14 14:53
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31? Yes +15 $3 24¢ $4 +$0 11-14 13:44
Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +10 $4 33¢ $3 $0 11-13 14:48
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T? Yes +20 $4 15¢ $3 $0 11-11 07:09
Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15? No +9 $2 36¢ $3 +$1 11-14 09:31
Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027? Yes +7 $4 41¢ $3 $0 11-04 15:29
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? No +23 $3 12¢ $3 -$1 11-06 14:31
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? Yes +17 $3 17¢ $3 $0 11-13 17:53
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? Yes +10 $4 26¢ $3 -$1 10-29 21:08
Will 4 Jensen Huang affairs be reported by December 31? Yes +11 $3 23¢ $3 -$1 11-13 22:55
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No +11 $2 21¢ $2 +$0 11-11 01:20
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by December 31? Yes +12 $3 20¢ $2 -$1 11-10 17:50
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 30, 2026? Yes +9 $3 26¢ $2 -$1 11-03 10:42
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +24 $3 10¢ $2 -$1 10-29 19:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in November? Yes +17 $3 14¢ $2 $0 11-09 11:17
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 November 9-15? Yes +4 $0 55¢ $2 +$3 11-14 14:06
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +29 $4 7¢ $2 -$1 10-30 04:27
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No +33 $2 6¢ $2 +$0 11-04 13:40
US imports Russian diesel by December 31? Yes +19 $3 11¢ $2 -$1 11-09 21:30
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes +22 $2 9¢ $2 $0 11-11 06:28
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +27 $3 7¢ $2 -$2 11-09 18:40
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +15 $4 12¢ $2 -$2 11-11 02:36
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? No +6 $3 30¢ $2 -$1 11-07 06:21
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? No +10 $2 18¢ $2 $0 11-11 13:24
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +25 $4 6¢ $2 -$2 10-29 19:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in November? Yes +7 $0 23¢ $2 +$2 11-14 10:06
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? Yes +19 $3 8¢ $2 -$2 11-09 22:11
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +14 $2 10¢ $1 -$1 11-11 12:53
Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? Yes -32 -$2 5¢ $-1 +$0 10-06 20:07