Realized P&L
-$2.66K
Unrealized P&L
+$389
Hit rate
51.8%
Resolved
1,254
Trades
33,637
lifetime
Volume
$524.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$16
Open exposure
$7.09K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-13 12:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 136 days
Categories
Other
61% 62% -$2,068
Politics
21% 71% -$1,346
Crypto
16% 73% +$1,051
Sports
1% 29% -$285
Tech
1% 0% -$7
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
69 active days in 12wk • peak 14197 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US recession by end of 2026? No +1,672 $1,431 98¢ $1.6K +$203 10-31 17:54
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +1,005 $972 98¢ $988 +$15 11-05 11:49
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +616 $408 92¢ $563 +$155 11-04 04:44
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +597 $490 94¢ $558 +$68 10-31 23:48
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No -473 -$388 97¢ $-459 -$71 05-11 15:32
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +404 $394 99¢ $399 +$5 10-31 18:46
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No -300 -$295 99¢ $-296 -$1 05-09 12:18
will coreweave announce bankruptcy by december 31 2027 No +282 $275 90¢ $253 -$22 10-15 00:45
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No +228 $226 99¢ $227 +$1 11-04 04:10
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes +266 $218 78¢ $209 -$9 11-05 15:36
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +195 $185 97¢ $190 +$4 10-31 18:46
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? No +188 $182 100¢ $187 +$4 10-02 11:32
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No +159 $156 98¢ $157 +$1 10-31 15:16
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? Yes -146 -$126 95¢ $-139 -$13 05-04 12:13
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +112 $80 98¢ $111 +$31 08-17 02:00
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027? No +87 $86 98¢ $86 $0 10-31 02:44
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +89 $40 94¢ $84 +$44 09-08 18:16
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? No +70 $65 98¢ $69 +$4 10-29 12:02
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +71 $64 92¢ $65 +$0 10-29 17:16
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 797 Yes +73 $45 79¢ $58 +$13 08-11 10:46
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No +69 $58 84¢ $58 $0 10-29 17:16
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No +64 $56 81¢ $52 -$4 10-20 18:47
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No -55 -$38 87¢ $-48 -$9 05-14 13:46
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? No +41 $86 98¢ $40 -$46 10-31 03:48
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +40 $30 98¢ $39 +$9 09-13 09:39
will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287 No +36 $27 80¢ $29 +$2 08-15 06:02
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +31 $26 94¢ $29 +$3 10-21 16:43
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes +29 $26 96¢ $28 +$2 09-28 14:57
Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting? No +26 $23 92¢ $23 +$1 10-29 17:41
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328 Yes +47 $20 43¢ $20 +$0 08-13 17:31