Realized P&L
-$5.27K
Unrealized P&L
+$630
Hit rate
53.1%
Resolved
8,168
Trades
74,972
lifetime
Volume
$265.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$2.97K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-24
last 10-06 00:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 223 days
Categories
Crypto
90% 55% -$4,742
Other
6% 60% -$735
Politics
3% 56% +$250
Sports
1% 70% -$31
Tech
0% 44% -$16
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
48 active days in 12wk • peak 59 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +517 $398 74¢ $385 -$13 09-17 03:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +383 $271 88¢ $339 +$68 09-28 16:59
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +248 $151 93¢ $231 +$80 09-15 18:40
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +187 $140 97¢ $181 +$42 10-02 22:29
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +194 $118 82¢ $158 +$40 09-17 00:25
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +172 $106 88¢ $151 +$44 09-15 18:42
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +169 $115 76¢ $129 +$14 09-25 16:25
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026 No +91 $23 100¢ $91 +$68 08-29 02:34
No one announced as next James Bond? No +114 $90 75¢ $86 -$5 09-17 00:26
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31 No +88 $58 96¢ $85 +$27 08-30 20:48
iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 No +96 $50 87¢ $84 +$33 08-23 01:47
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? Yes +91 $50 88¢ $81 +$31 08-29 14:53
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +80 $43 94¢ $75 +$32 09-17 00:29
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 No +74 $51 88¢ $65 +$14 07-26 20:51
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +68 $54 92¢ $62 +$8 08-20 23:46
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +5,800 $55 1¢ $61 +$6 08-26 21:48
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +71 $53 86¢ $61 +$7 07-19 00:18
AI bubble burst in 2026? No +67 $51 91¢ $61 +$10 07-29 22:23
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +62 $47 94¢ $58 +$11 09-17 03:32
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +66 $55 87¢ $57 +$2 08-13 02:58
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +58 $50 94¢ $55 +$5 07-21 00:34
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No +66 $50 83¢ $55 +$5 07-19 03:24
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes +58 $50 92¢ $54 +$3 07-17 12:45
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +2,000 $24 2¢ $50 +$26 07-23 01:24
foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775 No +55 $25 88¢ $49 +$23 08-07 03:09
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 No +52 $42 84¢ $44 +$2 08-29 00:57
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +1,200 $28 4¢ $43 +$15 07-23 02:37
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +320 $25 13¢ $42 +$17 07-17 16:13
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +44 $30 92¢ $40 +$10 07-22 00:11
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? No +46 $34 86¢ $40 +$6 08-30 21:43