Fatherly-Smog — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$132

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

181

lifetime

Volume

$6.45K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$130

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 06-05 19:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

48% 0% $-132

Politics

27% — —

Crypto

20% — —

Sports

4% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	No	+75	$51	64¢	$48	$-3	06-03 07:57
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?	No	+121	$38	34¢	$42	+$4	06-05 19:21
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?	No	-44	$-39	92¢	$-40	$-1	06-04 07:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453	15	$895	846	710	+136	open	—	01-23 16:49
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?	12	$855	755	255	+500	open	—	01-31 10:04
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	4	$447	228	250	-22	open	—	02-03 14:37
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	2	$314	400	0	+400	open	—	04-05 11:29
another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 2026	3	$310	200	200	+0	open	—	04-05 11:28
spx above 7040 jan 2026	6	$202	316	0	+316	open	—	01-21 05:14
another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 723 844 877 246 427 922	5	$195	450	0	+450	open	—	02-04 18:11
will solana reach 150 in january 2026	5	$150	101	101	+0	open	—	01-25 18:39
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December?	2	$114	428	0	+428	open	—	05-17 03:09
critical discord incident by march 31 2026	1	$108	130	0	+130	open	—	02-01 13:57
houthi strike on israel by february 28	2	$108	130	0	+130	open	—	02-01 05:42
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	1	$100	130	0	+130	open	—	03-03 03:05
trump declassifies new ufo files by march 31	1	$100	125	0	+125	open	—	03-03 03:02
will sp 500 spx close over 7000 on the final trading day of february 2026	4	$96	132	0	+132	open	—	02-14 17:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$94	244	100	+144	open	—	04-04 15:46
aws service disrupted by march 31	11	$93	120	0	+120	open	—	02-03 14:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$92	50	50	+0	open	—	02-14 17:33
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?	2	$90	111	0	+111	Yes	$-90	03-27 18:06
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	5	$88	232	6	+226	open	—	04-23 17:28
us bank failure by february 28	3	$85	100	0	+100	open	—	01-30 20:15
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?	4	$83	140	0	+140	open	—	03-01 09:38
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	1	$83	100	0	+100	open	—	04-03 17:58
israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	2	$80	50	50	+0	open	—	03-27 18:04
us evacuates baghdad embassy by february 28	1	$78	100	0	+100	open	—	01-31 10:01
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$76	98	0	+98	open	—	06-02 11:00
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$76	102	0	+102	open	—	06-03 04:35
us bank failure by march 31 294	1	$74	100	0	+100	open	—	01-30 12:58
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$71	88	0	+88	open	—	06-03 04:33
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$60	40	40	+0	open	—	03-27 18:05
internet access restored in iran by friday 263	1	$58	100	0	+100	open	—	01-24 14:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 19:21:27	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	121	31¢	$38	0x13bab9…
06-04 07:08:25	Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?	No	SELL	44	90¢	$39	0xa09ecf…
06-03 07:57:21	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	45	68¢	$31	0xc2c840…
06-03 04:44:16	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0xa1d762…
06-03 04:35:23	Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0xddec4f…
06-03 04:34:27	Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	72¢	$2	0x4abc5c…
06-03 04:33:10	Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	88	81¢	$71	0xb397a0…
06-02 11:00:34	Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	98	77¢	$76	0xadc88c…
06-02 10:58:28	Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x2b9694…
06-02 10:55:50	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x8ee3da…
05-17 03:09:48	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	298	26¢	$77	0x5115b4…
05-16 07:52:28	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	130	28¢	$37	0xb42d5b…
05-07 16:38:47	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	59	7¢	$4	0x59becd…
05-07 14:02:03	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	41	7¢	$3	0x184523…
05-07 14:01:38	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x0e2658…
04-23 17:28:54	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	97	20¢	$19	0xdb5131…
04-23 17:27:14	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x45bab8…
04-23 17:26:22	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xbb7b99…
04-10 18:34:39	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x573271…
04-05 11:29:19	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0xa25f67…
04-05 11:28:09	another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 2026	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x71f07a…
04-04 15:50:39	chatgpt outage by april 24	No	BUY	55	65¢	$36	0xfcd068…
04-04 15:46:17	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	100	19¢	$19	0xe667e6…
04-04 15:42:09	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x7842af…
04-03 18:03:27	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0xac0965…
04-03 17:58:53	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0xe24a51…
03-27 18:06:13	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	49	82¢	$40	0xfd5c5e…
03-27 18:05:55	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x00bfff…
03-27 18:04:51	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x3a0376…
03-27 18:04:17	israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xf13acc…
03-27 02:17:05	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	144	38¢	$55	0x499f07…
03-25 18:15:39	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	29	48¢	$14	0xfd4783…
03-17 14:28:41	will sp 500 spx close over 6900 on the final trading day of march 2026	No	BUY	17	80¢	$14	0x719880…
03-17 14:28:03	will sp 500 spx close over 6800 on the final trading day of march 2026	No	BUY	40	61¢	$24	0x822a92…
03-17 14:13:15	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0xadd349…
03-09 07:24:01	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xc21d92…
03-03 03:06:47	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0xbd0990…
03-03 03:05:59	will uae strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x352cb2…
03-03 03:05:49	will qatar strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xb6a5f6…
03-03 03:05:11	will any eu country strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xa28a5f…
03-03 03:02:59	trump declassifies new ufo files by march 31	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x6a51e5…
03-02 02:49:11	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xb07083…
03-02 02:48:05	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	40	51¢	$21	0x7b18d0…
03-01 09:38:35	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	15	57¢	$8	0xea0137…
03-01 07:18:57	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	35	56¢	$20	0x727eaa…
03-01 07:17:55	another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 2026	No	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x9bc423…
02-28 18:13:25	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x56a0ad…
02-28 18:09:45	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xfcbc28…
02-28 18:06:07	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x5714f6…
02-28 18:04:09	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x90e089…
02-28 17:58:05	another critical cloudflare incident by april 30 2026	No	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0xa25fab…
02-28 17:49:37	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x697a3c…
02-28 17:49:07	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	46	38¢	$18	0x06f26d…
02-14 17:34:17	will sp 500 spx close over 7000 on the final trading day of february 2026	No	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0x1df063…
02-14 17:33:55	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x206558…
02-14 17:30:33	will sp 500 spx close over 7000 on the final trading day of february 2026	No	BUY	32	80¢	$26	0xae7139…
02-14 12:01:15	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0xbe7554…
02-14 11:30:25	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x433310…
02-13 13:31:37	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xf58a5a…
02-11 19:05:51	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	14	54¢	$7	0x779a3a…
02-11 02:05:43	another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 2026	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x7d15ed…
02-11 01:59:51	will sp 500 spx close over 7000 on the final trading day of february 2026	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xa97386…
02-11 01:46:17	will sp 500 spx close over 7000 on the final trading day of february 2026	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x291073…
02-08 16:55:27	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	No	BUY	40	69¢	$28	0xf24dc2…
02-08 16:54:59	will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	Yes	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0x5eba3c…
02-08 16:53:03	us downs another iranian drone by february 28	No	BUY	70	73¢	$51	0x565764…
02-05 15:29:17	will solana dip to 90 in february 2026	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x445837…
02-05 15:28:43	will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x9cbaa0…
02-04 18:24:45	another critical cloudflare incident by april 30 735 917 371	No	BUY	21	12¢	$2	0x0377f7…
02-04 18:24:23	another critical cloudflare incident by april 30 735 917 371	No	BUY	29	10¢	$3	0x62eeea…
02-04 18:18:43	another critical cloudflare incident by march 15 795	No	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xd3fc3a…
02-04 18:11:19	another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 723 844 877 246 427 922	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x6ed14b…
02-04 18:07:59	another critical cloudflare incident by february 28	No	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x2da3d3…
02-04 18:06:51	another critical cloudflare incident by march 15 795	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x52c39c…
02-04 16:46:37	another critical cloudflare incident by april 30 735 917 371	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x620a7c…
02-04 15:39:01	will hyperliquid reach 40 in february	No	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xea0527…
02-03 14:38:00	aws service disrupted by march 31	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0x51cead…
02-03 14:37:16	will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	No	SELL	125	98¢	$122	0x7a5c4b…
02-03 07:34:56	will hyperliquid reach 40 in february	No	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xb9a057…
02-03 07:22:56	will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	No	SELL	125	98¢	$122	0xb79e90…
02-02 11:09:18	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x6f1270…
02-02 11:08:40	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x9c9f92…
02-02 03:51:14	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	77	62¢	$48	0x3364a7…
02-01 13:57:26	critical discord incident by march 31 2026	No	BUY	130	83¢	$108	0x14dabd…
02-01 06:55:00	aws service disrupted by march 31	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x18b338…
02-01 06:08:06	will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	No	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0x143d4c…
02-01 06:01:40	Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first?	$2k	BUY	36	60¢	$22	0xaea05c…
02-01 05:53:20	Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first?	$2k	BUY	14	60¢	$8	0x3f1410…
02-01 05:42:16	houthi strike on israel by february 28	No	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0x4249db…
02-01 05:22:04	aws service disrupted by march 31	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x28cae9…
02-01 04:53:18	aws service disrupted by march 31	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x1a8cdb…
02-01 04:52:16	aws service disrupted by march 31	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x8d60a1…
02-01 03:17:50	aws service disrupted by march 31	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x07e637…
02-01 02:17:10	aws service disrupted by march 31	No	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xb0e75c…
01-31 23:52:44	aws service disrupted by march 31	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xa31d3f…
01-31 23:46:56	aws service disrupted by march 31	No	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x5e08b6…
01-31 21:08:04	houthi strike on israel by february 28	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x5a7059…
01-31 21:01:10	will google be the first company to have an ai model hit 1500 on chatbot arena by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x1e87a3…
01-31 21:00:18	will xai be the first company to have an ai model hit 1500 on chatbot arena by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x128557…
01-31 20:59:26	will google be the first company to have an ai model hit 1500 on chatbot arena by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0xe9d154…