Crazy-Tambourine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

-$10

Hit rate

71.7%

Resolved

Trades

152

lifetime

Volume

$9.44K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$62

Open exposure

$61

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 06-13 17:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

38% — —

Politics

31% — —

Crypto

25% — —

Sports

7% 33% $-5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+56	$50	88¢	$50	$-0	06-13 13:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+22	$21	50¢	$11	$-10	06-13 17:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	4	$821	436	436	+0	open	—	02-24 06:22
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	4	$775	409	409	+0	open	—	02-26 16:41
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	6	$760	451	451	+0	open	—	02-01 08:02
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$628	461	461	+0	open	—	03-05 07:25
Will NVIDIA reach $200 in April?	4	$506	319	319	+0	open	—	04-10 19:29
will nvda reach 200 in march	3	$496	435	286	+150	open	—	03-02 21:36
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$439	228	228	+0	open	—	04-14 21:31
will bitcoin reach 70k february 23 march 1	3	$378	204	204	+0	open	—	03-02 06:51
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	2	$327	190	190	+0	open	—	02-14 19:31
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	3	$282	200	200	+0	open	—	05-21 14:35
will bitcoin reach 80k february 2 8	2	$251	156	156	+0	open	—	02-06 19:58
will carlos alcaraz win the 2026 australian open	4	$222	136	136	+0	open	—	02-01 12:22
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$221	134	134	+0	open	—	06-07 15:42
will nvda reach 240 in june 2026	2	$206	120	120	+0	open	—	06-09 19:36
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	2	$205	110	110	+0	open	—	06-12 03:37
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	1	$200	213	0	+213	open	—	02-16 21:20
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	5	$185	140	140	+0	open	—	01-30 13:12
will nvda dip to 152 in march	2	$165	90	90	+0	open	—	03-25 13:03
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$157	88	88	+0	open	—	03-15 04:39
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	2	$155	93	93	+0	open	—	03-20 14:04
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$153	80	80	+0	open	—	03-20 11:41
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?	2	$151	106	106	+0	open	—	02-27 09:42
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	1	$143	153	0	+153	open	—	02-18 10:58
nvda above 190 on february 27 2026	2	$129	285	285	+0	open	—	02-26 09:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$101	70	70	+0	open	—	05-06 09:29
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?	1	$100	294	0	+294	open	—	04-25 06:05
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	2	$84	102	102	+0	open	—	02-03 07:36
Will NVIDIA reach $212 in April?	3	$77	102	64	+38	open	—	04-27 13:32
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	2	$73	50	50	+0	open	—	04-10 11:20
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$67	42	42	+0	open	—	04-23 18:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 08:19:42	fifwc ger kor 2026 06 14 btts	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x814b1a…
06-13 17:31:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	42¢	$9	0x89ba6c…
06-13 13:36:51	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x292307…
06-12 12:45:37	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0x828ba8…
06-12 08:48:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x337da7…
06-12 03:37:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	110	96¢	$105	0xe92652…
06-11 12:56:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x1fbba5…
06-11 07:44:54	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x45490e…
06-09 19:36:15	will nvda reach 240 in june 2026	No	SELL	120	88¢	$106	0x1e3af4…
06-09 08:33:39	will nvda reach 240 in june 2026	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x8ac2f3…
06-09 05:39:28	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd29ab5…
06-07 20:32:06	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0xbafb3e…
06-07 20:10:39	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x4a2bbc…
06-07 20:04:40	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0x558bc5…
06-07 19:27:51	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xdeb0a9…
06-07 19:25:15	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	28	35¢	$10	0x928ec8…
06-07 19:25:09	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x035925…
06-07 16:57:03	atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07 set totals 4pt5	Over 4.5	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0xbca9ca…
06-07 16:23:15	atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07 set totals 4pt5	Over 4.5	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xc984de…
06-07 15:42:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	134	94¢	$126	0xb7929a…
05-29 18:49:42	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xfc13d3…
05-29 17:54:17	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x558994…
05-29 17:16:17	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Joao Fonseca	SELL	12	19¢	$2	0x31656e…
05-29 15:36:41	Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic	Joao Fonseca	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x99dc94…
05-28 20:53:09	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x772ec4…
05-28 11:49:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	134	71¢	$95	0x1b2eb0…
05-24 05:24:26	Spread: Spurs (-2.5)	Thunder	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x4d39e1…
05-21 14:35:45	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	No	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0xb93882…
05-15 08:19:15	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	No	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0xf28c62…
05-13 05:46:39	Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	Timberwolves	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xcba483…
05-12 04:26:46	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x7703f0…
05-11 12:15:33	Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)	Pistons	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x92fa61…
05-09 04:42:27	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x0ca141…
05-08 03:25:09	Spread: Thunder (-16.5)	Lakers	SELL	18	85¢	$15	0x8dadfd…
05-07 05:26:49	Spread: Thunder (-16.5)	Lakers	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x0414c0…
05-06 12:44:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	53¢	$21	0x187f20…
05-06 09:29:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	70	72¢	$51	0x64763c…
05-04 20:15:54	Spread: Thunder (-16.5)	Lakers	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xcc98c0…
05-01 20:50:18	Spread: Rockets (-4.5)	Lakers	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x6b3d56…
04-27 13:32:22	Will NVIDIA reach $212 in April?	No	BUY	38	27¢	$10	0x666460…
04-27 11:47:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x423464…
04-27 11:32:26	Will NVIDIA reach $212 in April?	No	SELL	64	27¢	$17	0x0fbbbf…
04-27 03:34:20	Lakers vs. Rockets	Rockets	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x980055…
04-25 15:11:30	Lakers vs. Rockets	Rockets	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xa35c9c…
04-25 06:05:34	Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0x98d8f4…
04-23 18:18:56	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	42	88¢	$37	0x197268…
04-23 05:22:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xc523f9…
04-23 05:22:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	71¢	$17	0xf638ce…
04-18 07:35:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0xa09e34…
04-18 06:41:54	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0x183dae…
04-17 06:20:42	Will NVIDIA reach $212 in April?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xd58e94…
04-15 11:02:12	atp blockx shelton 2026 04 15	Ben Shelton	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0x15b4d4…
04-14 21:31:28	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	228	100¢	$227	0xaa4fcc…
04-14 05:15:47	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 spread away 1pt5	FC Barcelona	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xf9c1ba…
04-12 06:57:37	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x4b92a0…
04-11 15:27:43	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	228	93¢	$211	0x5988bb…
04-11 15:16:43	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xf3f9d7…
04-11 13:18:33	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	SELL	34	78¢	$27	0x9cbdb2…
04-11 07:51:13	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	47	21¢	$10	0x85640d…
04-11 07:45:23	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x09ef25…
04-10 19:29:01	Will NVIDIA reach $200 in April?	No	SELL	201	58¢	$116	0xa9854a…
04-10 11:20:21	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x955165…
04-08 15:12:11	Will NVIDIA reach $200 in April?	No	SELL	98	85¢	$83	0x8dacb7…
04-07 20:48:03	Will NVIDIA reach $200 in April?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xce77ba…
04-06 09:38:57	Will NVIDIA reach $200 in April?	No	BUY	319	91¢	$289	0xf115b6…
04-03 13:06:19	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x79cd39…
03-30 09:18:26	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x8e68be…
03-29 06:42:34	israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	No	SELL	23	64¢	$14	0xcb79e3…
03-28 04:15:45	israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	No	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x6ed3c8…
03-26 12:06:37	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	SELL	64	44¢	$28	0x0074c9…
03-25 13:03:01	will nvda dip to 152 in march	No	SELL	90	96¢	$87	0x206257…
03-24 05:39:43	will nvda dip to 152 in march	No	BUY	90	87¢	$78	0xf4c815…
03-23 18:48:21	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0xfaa5f8…
03-23 13:08:41	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	24	89¢	$21	0xea9ab5…
03-20 14:04:31	will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	No	SELL	93	83¢	$77	0xc54cd4…
03-20 11:51:49	will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	No	BUY	93	85¢	$79	0x32ae9e…
03-20 11:41:57	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	80	98¢	$79	0x151f7e…
03-19 21:44:53	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	52	49¢	$26	0x000e6a…
03-15 15:27:49	atp medvede sinner 2026 03 15 match total 21pt5	Over	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xbe076a…
03-15 04:39:35	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	88	100¢	$87	0x827838…
03-14 07:05:49	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	24	59¢	$14	0x5e623a…
03-10 23:00:11	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	80	92¢	$74	0x2128ac…
03-05 17:22:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	64	47¢	$30	0xa537b3…
03-05 13:02:27	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	88	80¢	$70	0x7b66f6…
03-05 07:25:03	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	93	15¢	$14	0x440c97…
03-04 21:30:33	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	93	16¢	$15	0x1917ed…
03-04 21:21:09	epl mac not 2026 03 04 mac	Yes	SELL	28	16¢	$5	0x7a09fa…
03-03 18:21:39	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	135	84¢	$113	0xea9369…
03-03 11:01:21	epl mac not 2026 03 04 mac	Yes	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0xca604f…
03-02 21:36:19	will nvda reach 200 in march	No	BUY	150	67¢	$100	0xb82c1c…
03-02 15:41:25	will nvda reach 200 in march	No	SELL	286	67¢	$192	0xa88619…
03-02 09:24:09	will nvda reach 200 in march	No	BUY	286	71¢	$204	0xc7037d…
03-02 06:51:19	will bitcoin reach 70k february 23 march 1	No	SELL	204	100¢	$204	0x515c7c…
03-01 06:00:07	will bitcoin reach 70k february 23 march 1	No	BUY	175	88¢	$154	0x9d16af…
02-28 19:38:25	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0x42ee60…
02-28 17:57:37	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x228c37…
02-28 14:32:35	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x3ac531…
02-27 19:29:23	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	SELL	62	6¢	$4	0xdec004…
02-27 17:43:23	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	62	5¢	$3	0xa5cde7…
02-27 09:42:27	US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?	No	SELL	106	72¢	$76	0xee5023…