Neat-Derivation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

3.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$65

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 06-10 18:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

52% 0% $-12

Crypto

26% 0% $-9

Politics

19% 20% +$8

Sports

3% 0% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale?	No		-6	$-4	100¢	$-6	$-2	05-31 10:14
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	Yes		+14	$1	11¢	$2	+$1	06-10 18:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale?	1	$4	0	6	-6	open	—	05-31 10:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	2	$2	59	0	+59	Down	$-2	05-07 13:33
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$1	20	0	+20	open	—	05-06 18:51
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 6?	1	$1	50	0	+50	No	$-1	05-06 18:31
Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$1	500	0	+500	Yes	$-1	05-06 19:10
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	1	$1	167	0	+167	open	—	05-06 18:59
Will gas hit (Low) $3.75 by May 31?	1	$1	20	0	+20	open	—	05-06 18:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	1	$1	100	0	+100	Up	$-1	05-07 13:54
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?	1	$1	20	0	+20	Yes	$-1	05-06 18:25
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$1	143	0	+143	Yes	$-1	05-06 19:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$1	12	0	+12	Yes	+$12	05-06 18:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 6?	1	$1	12	0	+12	No	$-1	05-06 18:31
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China?	1	$1	42	0	+42	open	—	05-15 14:56
Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group B	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	Team Nemesis	$-1	05-06 18:49
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	1	$1	143	0	+143	open	—	05-23 14:20
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	1	$1	102	0	+102	open	—	05-06 18:33
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$1	40	0	+40	Yes	$-1	05-06 19:11
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?	1	$1	11	0	+11	open	—	05-13 20:05
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	1	$1	20	0	+20	open	—	05-06 18:47
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	1	$1	111	0	+111	open	—	05-06 18:33
Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	1	$1	12	0	+12	open	—	05-06 19:17
Will Solana dip to $60 in May?	1	$1	38	0	+38	open	—	05-06 18:43
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	10	0	+10	open	—	05-13 20:03
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	1	$1	27	0	+27	open	—	05-06 18:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	1	$1	5	0	+5	Down	$-1	05-08 23:14
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	1	$1	38	0	+38	open	—	05-06 19:17
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage	1	$1	6	0	+6	Clutchain	$-1	05-06 18:50
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$1	20	0	+20	open	—	05-06 19:13
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?	1	$1	33	0	+33	open	—	05-07 13:12
will ethereum reach 2500 in june 2026	1	$1	67	0	+67	open	—	06-05 23:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 18:18:16	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x44b443…
06-05 23:12:36	will ethereum reach 2400 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xc9d806…
06-05 23:12:36	will ethereum reach 2500 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x86d41c…
05-31 10:14:01	Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale?	No	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0xcce5d8…
05-23 15:26:48	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xb8ff0c…
05-23 14:21:29	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	Yes	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x83ee24…
05-23 14:20:54	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xdab7a1…
05-17 08:41:25	Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xafeccd…
05-17 08:41:11	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xb8a5a7…
05-15 14:56:30	Will Trump announce new sanctions on China?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0xa8541c…
05-13 20:05:22	UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xf06bd8…
05-13 20:03:23	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xfcdd80…
05-08 23:14:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x6b3816…
05-07 14:03:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xb92bab…
05-07 13:59:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xe717e2…
05-07 13:54:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf82278…
05-07 13:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x9266e4…
05-07 13:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb2cdad…
05-07 13:32:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xf838f8…
05-07 13:27:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x1d5b48…
05-07 13:12:26	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	No	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x5106a2…
05-07 13:12:05	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x1bf58d…
05-06 19:25:33	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	FC Bayern München	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x0a5a0b…
05-06 19:17:56	Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x8d21b8…
05-06 19:17:49	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x4271e4…
05-06 19:17:38	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xf3e854…
05-06 19:13:18	Will Georgia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x4aa211…
05-06 19:13:14	Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x3ae184…
05-06 19:11:52	Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x79138a…
05-06 19:11:15	Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x09250b…
05-06 19:11:10	Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	67	2¢	$1	0x60ea9f…
05-06 19:11:06	Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x1f1ca7…
05-06 19:10:52	Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xba3e72…
05-06 19:09:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x2f5610…
05-06 18:59:30	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x104f62…
05-06 18:54:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xfb3b66…
05-06 18:51:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb7fa9e…
05-06 18:50:19	Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage	Hermine Esports Club	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xeaed83…
05-06 18:49:28	Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage	Oxuji Esports	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x3367c8…
05-06 18:49:10	Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group B	MODUS	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xa06643…
05-06 18:47:03	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x9d97f8…
05-06 18:46:47	Will gas hit (Low) $3.75 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x33a9b2…
05-06 18:46:29	Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xefb793…
05-06 18:44:04	Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x9ff370…
05-06 18:43:13	Will Solana dip to $60 in May?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xf52b90…
05-06 18:42:12	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x8879f3…
05-06 18:41:53	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xd56a1a…
05-06 18:41:28	Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc53a99…
05-06 18:41:18	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd70c43…
05-06 18:38:04	Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x355707…
05-06 18:33:29	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	102	1¢	$1	0x7bd13e…
05-06 18:33:08	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xe20207…
05-06 18:31:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd2b7d8…
05-06 18:31:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe90e9d…
05-06 18:30:02	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xab76a0…
05-06 18:29:33	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x6cecfc…
05-06 18:28:42	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xb50d86…
05-06 18:26:46	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xc0b90a…
05-06 18:26:38	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	No	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xc40605…
05-06 18:26:31	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?	No	BUY	61	2¢	$1	0xf7f912…
05-06 18:25:35	FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026?	No	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xa59334…
05-06 18:25:01	Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x35929e…