Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
open
Total volume
$937
$10,108 in 24h
Trades
38
Unique wallets
18
Liquidity
$2,434
Latest YES mid
81¢
Latest NO mid
19¢
End date
2026-09-30
First seen
2026-05-06
last 05-08 08:59
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🦐 Shrimp | 18 | $353 | $386 | $33 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| Median | 3 | $14 | $3 | +$11 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $334 | $381 | $47 |
| unranked | 11 | $5 | $2 | +$3 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | +4,591 | $381 | $381 | 7 | 05-08 08:30 |
| Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | +433 | $313 | $313 | 8 | 05-08 08:30 |
| Austere-Bookcase 0x5ecf…af11 | No | +29 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-06 15:58 |
| Unsightly-Dialogue 0xbcc2…8c9a | Yes | +27 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 05-08 04:54 |
| Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | Yes | +17 | $14 | $14 | 4 | 05-08 08:29 |
| Pertinent-Vengeance 0x0275…b936 | No | +8 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-08 04:54 |
| Guilty-Transparency 0xa16f…7fa1 | Yes | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-07 08:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x8cfd…04c9 | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-08 03:46 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-08 08:59:45 | Diligent-Loss 0x0327…5e15 | No | SELL | 116 | 14¢ | $16 | 0x02acc6… |
| 05-08 08:30:59 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | BUY | 8 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xea746a… |
| 05-08 08:30:28 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | BUY | 6 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xd02bbb… |
| 05-08 08:30:03 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | BUY | 49 | 83¢ | $40 | 0x893e45… |
| 05-08 08:29:37 | Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 83¢ | $3 | 0x041c18… |
| 05-08 08:29:27 | Infinite-Country 0x5056…d9b5 | No | SELL | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xf6ed97… |
| 05-08 08:29:18 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 82¢ | $25 | 0x3f910f… |
| 05-08 08:29:04 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | BUY | 201 | 81¢ | $163 | 0x12964a… |
| 05-08 07:45:49 | Diligent-Density 0x2004…914a | No | SELL | 155 | 20¢ | $31 | 0xb3563c… |
| 05-08 07:34:24 | Inconsequential-Hut 0x87f8…41b6 | No | SELL | 53 | 20¢ | $11 | 0xe62d31… |
| 05-08 06:00:07 | Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0x491c0d… |
| 05-08 05:58:08 | Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 82¢ | $6 | 0x4fb449… |
| 05-08 05:57:52 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | BUY | 8 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xc75169… |
| 05-08 05:57:41 | Quarrelsome-Trumpet-Helo 0x8652…3241 | No | SELL | 143 | 17¢ | $24 | 0xc6d7d3… |
| 05-08 04:54:38 | Pertinent-Vengeance 0x0275…b936 | No | BUY | 8 | 22¢ | $2 | 0xea213f… |
| 05-08 04:54:33 | Unsightly-Dialogue 0xbcc2…8c9a | Yes | BUY | 19 | 76¢ | $14 | 0x30a4bb… |
| 05-08 04:54:33 | Far-Off-Dash 0x97f8…7483 | No | SELL | 1 | 24¢ | $0 | 0x622573… |
| 05-08 04:54:22 | Unsightly-Dialogue 0xbcc2…8c9a | Yes | BUY | 8 | 75¢ | $6 | 0x2a846c… |
| 05-08 04:19:55 | Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0xe17e7f… |
| 05-08 04:14:19 | Diligent-Density 0x2004…914a | Yes | SELL | 23 | 47¢ | $11 | 0xc10f72… |
| 05-08 04:10:39 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | BUY | 5 | 44¢ | $2 | 0xa25757… |
| 05-08 04:10:32 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 57¢ | $11 | 0xe6e2a5… |
| 05-08 04:10:28 | (anonymous) 0xcb46…3692 | No | SELL | 29 | 43¢ | $12 | 0x4eb2a8… |
| 05-08 04:10:25 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | BUY | 5 | 44¢ | $2 | 0x98d187… |
| 05-08 04:09:06 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 57¢ | $6 | 0xb729e6… |
| 05-08 04:04:38 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 57¢ | $28 | 0xf35b20… |
| 05-08 04:04:30 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | BUY | 58 | 56¢ | $32 | 0xe6d0be… |
| 05-08 03:54:57 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 50¢ | $7 | 0xfefa07… |
| 05-08 03:46:46 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 15 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x0fbe92… |
| 05-08 03:46:42 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | BUY | 52 | 51¢ | $27 | 0x8ade60… |
| 05-08 03:46:42 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x359c3e… |
| 05-08 03:46:42 | (anonymous) 0x8cfd…04c9 | No | BUY | 2 | 52¢ | $1 | 0x36fc6c… |
| 05-08 03:44:48 | Well-Informed-Rubber 0xa016…b2e2 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 91¢ | $18 | 0x357a5f… |
| 05-08 03:44:43 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | BUY | 4,506 | 8¢ | $346 | 0x7f7731… |
| 05-07 08:39:38 | Guilty-Transparency 0xa16f…7fa1 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x134f03… |
| 05-06 19:20:32 | Possible-Pilgrimage 0x7ac4…14f1 | No | SELL | 1,000 | 6¢ | $62 | 0x6af553… |
| 05-06 15:58:43 | Austere-Bookcase 0x5ecf…af11 | No | BUY | 29 | 7¢ | $2 | 0xdf13eb… |
| 05-06 15:55:43 | Trifling-Deck 0x59c1…67cc | No | SELL | 40 | 8¢ | $3 | 0xcadc62… |